weatherwiz

meh how'd those physics work out for you

I would wager that you have decent odds at getting your covering and maybe even around 0.5" or so. I think some of the guidance is too aggressive with warming sfc temperatures so quickly. I understand too its the temperatures aloft which are a concern too but I think they will still be cold enough initially to support snow. But at the surface, dewpoints will still be into the upper 20's and probably some room to wet bulb at the initial onset of precipitation which should help to keep temperatures just cold enough.

Just a question of where that is but the most likely scenario is probably from Maine (just inland from the coast) back through CNE. I do wonder if there is some room to pop some 8-10" within that band.

IDK...what may prevent that idea is overall flake size might be pretty putrid. Have to wait another 56 minutes for bufkit but panning around some soundings that DGZ is awfully high. It's also difficult to find really any extraordinary lift that barely gets to the base of the DGZ. I think we'll see a narrow area where snowgrowth is excellent for a period of time, but that may be brief. Snow rates will probably be heavy but the flake size is going to be putrid. You'll have to go into NH and ME to really get the good stuff. I'm thinking 3-4" of snow is going to be the most common and widespread within the questionable areas which should hold back any power outage/damage risk. Max totals probably 5-8" into NH/ME.

The overall differences between NAM/Euro/GFS seem rather subtle but these subtle differences have significant ramifications into how this unfolds. All kind of seems to be tied into exactly where/when the sfc low becomes more defined and where/when 925/850 lows develop and close off. Of course, there is still the signal in the potential for dual lows. Regardless, this will be a nice hit from parts of Maine through central NH, southern VT and into western MA. Also wondering if we see a secondary smaller max from like Worcester into SE NH

Just northwest of that R/S line is going to rip. That's a nice fronto band that materializes on the NAM. A little concerned though because the DGZ is on the higher side so it will take some heft upward vertical motion to really crank out good growth and rates but that is doable across a narrow swath. Hell, there may also be some thunder/lightning that scrapes the Outer Cape.

guessing its probably 18z tomorrow when NAM starts to tame down.

Kevin gets dry slotted though most of QPF probably done

Can't wait to see how amped the NAM turns out to be based on the look so far.

Isn't Google DeepMind the one which has had extremely encouraging results, however, also described as "the model is able to produce great results, however, the model has no clue how it derived the results". There was some article or paper on this a year or two ago.

doing both

ughh something wonky must be going on with bufkit profiles from PSU. keep forgetting to make a backup bufget list from iowa state.

my thinking too...hope that is overdone. doesn't look like a ton of convection associated with this across the SE

yup...and too much data created to "save people time" while degrading forecasting skill. Hey, why do I have to spend an hour or two assessing all the critical factors which influence snowfall totals when I can just pull up a 10:1 map, call it a forecast, then blame the model for being wrong when it doesn't pan out. Or significant tornado parameter map is showing widespread values of 4-5...let's go with tornado outbreak! its gross.

Forecast models haven't gotten worse, what has gotten worse over the last decade is forecasting skill and a large part of that is due to all of these ridiculous products which have supplemented the actual forecast process. So many convective events in the Plains hyped up because of supercell composite and significant tornado crap, snow maps, etc. It's all run to snow maps, QPF output, etc. which more often than not will not produce an accurate assessment and then when they don't verify, its cry and blame models rather than taking personal responsibility.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the euro come back the other way a bit tomorrow but something like this run may not be too far off from what occurs

the 12z GFS bufkit for ORH is odd. I don't really put too much stock into the precip type but it has this look as heavy ZR. It's more than likely a lift thing but it's still funny to see. but then has this as heavy snow

The storm but I also think I could get into that range. I think a lot would have to go right to really get a widespread area of 6-7-8-9” or so. But depending on how this evolves there could room for those higher totals a bit farther north into parts of NH

I’m going to say 4-6” is probably ceiling with this. Maybe some 7-8” reports if things really fall right and depending on the angle of the ruler into the snow. But I will wear a Santa hat and do cartwheels if I can get 4-5” Dec 2

Heavier rates along the Mass Pike might be enough to pump enough moisture higher up into the DGZ and get better growth going

yeah 700mb is quite warm. snow growth would be pathetic except perhaps towards SNH or so and just north

Already huge differences by hr 60-66 at H5 compared to the 12z run yesterday. Not much difference versus 0z or 6z but its crazy to see such drastic differences in 24 hour

My guess is this ends up being something flatter which would benefit most in the Ptype department but I don’t think you’d be looking at any beefy totals. Probably borderline warning criteria for some towns. I mean which is still great for early Dec…but you’ll see a lot of disappointed people in the totals because they didn’t live up to clown map expectations

I doubt its coming in this amped. Not even going to have any serious thoughts on this until Sunday morning or early afternoon.

Looks like 18z gfs going to be quite amped...shocker.