weatherwiz

When dealing with phasing potential, it's not uncommon or farfetched to see swings of multiple hundreds or miles or more from run-to-run or even mode-to-model. The difference between a phase and no phase can end up substantial. Hell, even the difference between a phase and just a partial phase can be massive in terms of low development and track. The end of week/weekend was always very low potential but the changes needed to get something aren't terribly substantial.

I've been thinking...I actually don't think its a bad idea to start threads for specific storm threats, even if the probability is low. It would be great to start like building a library so to say for research purposes. We have so much research and data on storms which worked out but I don't feel like we have much of a database on storms which don't (outside of the section in the KU books which as some near misses). It would be cool if the board also had like an archived section where specific threads could end up there for historical and research purposes.

And he's the one telling people in SNE to move

I've always said and felt this... Once we enter the -AMO phase (which I believe we're beginning to move into), if we're continuing to see shattering temperature records and continuing the theme of hurricanes taking off and undergoing RI...then we're in a real cause for concern.

I'll just be glad not to have it dark in the house at 3:30 and having to throw lights on all over.

8 weeks until we move the clocks ahead

violently sell that

Well was using this weekend as a guide of "making or breaking" for next week and last nights runs certainly at least kept the intrigue alive. While the likelihood for that initial wave is decreasing, we may be slowly improving the potential for that follow up wave ~16th. One thing to watch too is models being a bit too aggressive with shunting the baroclinic zone too far south and east. Still seems like forever to to but we wanted something to track and we got it

Yup…textbook events are very hard to come by. Many weather events, including big events (whether severe or winter) generally aren’t textbook.

shame there was never any updates to NARR after 2014

I was hoping to pull off 100” but probably going to have to scale that back to 80” given slow January start.

meant in reference to forecast models not sensible weather haha

I was kind of hoping we could have gotten a solid 2-3 year stretch of ENSO neutral conditions but this developing La Nina and now signals for an emerging EL Nino are going to run that. But this constant seesaw of ENSO with multiple strong EL Nino events over the last decade is really causing some major atmospheric chaos

As much as I am a believer in CC and its influences on weather and while there may be some influences, I agree that CC is not the ultimate driver behind our crummy luck. Eventually we will get into periods (and a several year stretch) where things work out and we get slammed. This will happen sooner versus later.

I'm ready for climo to deliver. I finally got all shoveled out from all the good looks and each of the climo periods from the last several winters

Maybe Marco Sturm can transition practices outside and teach the Bruins how to play defense and punish them by making them stand outside in Arctic air at a clip of 30 minutes for each penalty they commit during a game

@40/70 Benchmark getting back to the end of last weeks discussion regarding that fast flow stuff...I retract what I had stated and I will also add that anything blaming fast flow is also voodoo...to a degree

I just kind of want the weekend to get here. This period is very low probability, but just enough of a probability to keep us a bit into it. We'll either put this to rest this weekend or see a theme where we are inching towards something.

How Low can you go

Was just going to mention that...how the pattern is structured is about as important than anything and I think stuff like this goes overlooked. People see ridge in the west and trough in the east and assume that is good but that is not necessarily the case.

gravy in the sense that the signal for anything significant from that is diminishing so if it happens to work out its a bonus.

Yup its been wild how drastically we've seen guidance alter within the medium-to-long range...clearly there is still a struggle with fully grasping the PAC. I also wonder if there is some residual feedback from the monster -PDO we had late summer...obviously not going to impact the models but moreso how the PAC is evolving in real time

I was hopeful for that first wave but I've become a bit less enthused, however, I am hoping that it may somewhat help set the stage for better potential with the second shortwave...there's a quite a bit of energy that will be in play there

The best potential for a larger storm is probably that mid-month period. Beyond mid-month, however, the pattern may become much more active...maybe with SWFE's given we may be battling the SE ridge...which may not be a bad thing given we'll be into peak climo. Not totally sold on the SE ridge becoming as stout as advertised though which would work into our favor. We may not get into deep cold, but we'll have deep cold available nearby so if we can tug a storm track a bit south/east we can easily pull into it

I'll say...I have zero clue how anyone forecasts in Anchorage or Alaska in general Anchorage is an insane market and often times can get screwed in the snowfall department because they get downsloped but they can also get wind winds because the winds can funnel. The airport can get like 3" of snow and a few miles away they're pulling off 20". But there are times anchorage can get absolutely dumped on too.