weatherwiz

Let's shoot for 45

Hopefully one of many

I have to agree with this. Perhaps there is some sort of relationship with how EL Nino's evolve during the summer and what we experience during the summer in terms of big heat or not, but strong(er) EL Nino events don't really become mature until we're in the dead of summer or even back half of summer. If anything, I would think the correlation would start showing as we moved into Fall

NBM not backing down at BDL tomorrow...13z run still throwing up 95

One underrated aspect that is going to suck about the RRFS replacing the various meso models is it runs MUCH slower

yup...north today, south tomorrow. damn. NAM came back down to Earth too with the mlvl lapse rates...had a feeling it was a bit too aggressive with the steeper lapse rates. DCAPE not bad though...probably see some scattered wind damage reports tomorrow along that swath you mentioned

Not too mention the BL flow becoming a bit more westerly...which may be related more to a faster FROPA. Looks like better convergence towards the south coast

3km is a shutout tomorrow and the HRRR has development from eastern PA moving across NJ, southern CT, and southern RI lol. 3km probably ran using Breslow's algorithm

3km liking southern VT/NH into northern ORH County today

lmao guidance for BDL tomorrow MAV: 84 MET: 84 NBM: 95 (though showing a 3hr max of 88)

Tonight may even end up a few degrees warmer

Was sitting outside enjoying the night and got all bit up by mosquitos

AWT

AWT

The RRFS is decent too, just a bit later with timing

I think we'll see widespread storms...should see a solid line evolve ahead of the front. Only question is whether damaging wind gust potential is rather isolated or more scattered

Ninja'd was just commenting on the NAM/mlvl lapse rates. The NAM is definitely pretty intriguing. Would actually see a pretty solid line drift south and it occurrs during peak heating

The NAM is actually pretty interesting for Wednesday. Would suggest a threat for scattered damaging wind gusts, particularly south of the Pike. The NAM has a large area of steeper mid-level lapse rates overhead, shunting south during the day (hence south of the Pike favored). Not sure I totally buy this though...the NAM seems to have a tendency for having these areas of steeper lapse rates...but a big player in this is whether the airmass over the OV is convectively overturned tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Shear is pretty decent along with height falls and looks like we get enough heating to drive up the llvl lapse rates

Yeah I would not be shocked to see some heat advisories tossed out this afternoon

Great point on this...strength of the flow certainly does factor in. Also, in this case as least that boundary is probably so shallow and weak that its just totally mixing out

Well I'm very curious to see how well NBMv5 performs. 7z NBM for BDL has 99 for a high tomorrow (though highest 3-hr temp is 94) with a low of 73. MAV is 92/67 MET is 91/68

Maybe a few rogue strong storms around later Tuesday. We'll see convection with the front on Wednesday but anything severe would be isolated and relatively brief. Would be more intriguing if lapse rates were a bit more respectable.

ehhh I'm more looking at there's a difference between drought and just abnormally dry. But drought can certainly be relative to a location (particularly a region). I just think the word drought is just being hyped up and tossed around like crazy. No doubt many places have been quite dry and have had some local impacts, but those impacts haven't been dire to the point where there is critical concern (sure we've seen some restrictions at times and recommendations on water usage) but save the word drought for if/when things are truly dire.

The word drought and New England should never be used in the same sentence.

Oh sick I had no clue either. That is awesome. That should even help reduce range folding issues in the CT Valley. Looks like the 0.3° tilt samples just below 5K in the Springfield area which is a good ~1.5k feet lower than what the 0.5° tilt samples.