weatherwiz

the rapid RI is probably hindering the overall hail/tornado potential. Upscale growth will be very quick. Radar watching will be fun. Storms probably going from a TCU to 55K monsters in minutes lol

maybe LCL's are too high but I was shocked they didn't mention risk for a strong tornado very early on in the game...perhaps just a small window too b/c everything will become linear quickly but the ingredients are there that should a discrete cell take off it could go nuts. Thinking we see a 4'' hail report today

same. MLCAPE too getting to 4000-5000 J...that's ridiculous. Derecho composite already at a 10 too.

DERECHO!!!

I am so grateful CT continues to do so excellent.

Is this just to much to ask for

One thing I would really love to do is start studying more (reading research papers, finding datasets to do analyses, etc) about the role/significance on the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere and the overall significance/impact this plays on the progression of the pattern moving through the Northern Hemisphere winter. I strongly feel this interaction plays a significant role...moreso than ENSO. One example would be the QBO and it's structure and how it is behaving moving through the fall and winter. Like right now it appears that we are in an upward propagating easterly phase (I think) and if that were to continue into the winter that would certainly increase the prospects for a better Arctic. If we can correlate that to a weak La Nina (this is just a basic look...obviously would want to get into the placement of the coldest anomalies) that would certainly increase prospects for us this winter.

They should do a movie about fakenadoes in Tolland

Weren't the warmest anomalies in region 4? Which I mean technically isn't region 4 more into the region where the WHWP will propagate into? I know how the WHWP propagates can influence ENSO (particularly Nino) but I don't recall the global pattern being very "Nino like" last winter.

I completely agree with this. And this is a huge challenge b/c we aren't really sure how much of an impact a warming climate is having on global oscillations and ENSO....the research indicates there is impact but what is the outcome of these impacts? I also agree...there is tremendous value on the monthly or seasonal calculations and averages and for reasons just like you stated...longer, seasonal lead times. However, I wish there was also more research out there which kinda broke these down to smaller time-scale intervals. I know I've said this numerous times but I wish there were like weekly or bi-weekly calculations for the the oscillations. I would love to do this b/c the data needed to do so is available, however, I have zero clue on how to even do this and my math skills are too weak. I also know that at the end of the day it's the structure/placement of the anomalies which hold more weight than a raw number but that doesn't mean there is not value within a raw number. Using a raw value with a map showing structure/anomaly strengthens any potential knowledge gained.

I just wonder how much of a signal or how much of a factor ENSO just plays anymore (obviously in a strong or super-strong event it's going to heavily influence the global configuration) but it just seems the correlations with ENSO just aren't that strong anymore. Now perhaps what could be happening is as the data set continues to expand and we're seeing more variations within the same type of signal regime but ENSO events of late don't seem to be behaving like similar ENSO events of the past. ENSO gets a significant chunk of attention when it comes to seasonal forecasting (especially for the northern hemisphere winter) but I seriously wonder if the main driver is the stratosphere and the stratosphere-troposphere interaction. Now perhaps we're just in a cycle where the PV and it's evolution (both SPV and TPV) has so much weight on the evolution of the northern hemisphere pattern. In terms of the NAO though, I was doing a little bit looking last summer and one thing that intrigued me with a potential indication of how the NAO may evolve or behave moving into the winter was zonal wind anomalies within the Arctic and around Greenland. I don't remember off hand the signal but I want to say easterly (which would make most sense) zonal wind anomalies around the Arctic/Greenland in the fall seemed to correlate to more of a -NAO potential moving into winter. The biggest problem with indices such as the NAO/AO though is there is too much emphasis on the monthly/seasonal value. Perhaps that helps with a long-term pattern configuration, however, it's the variations and transitions on the shorter-term which play a significant role in sensible weather changes...same with the EPO/PNA as well.

Nice touch, Mr. Trump

My guess is some of the west coast states (WA/OR...perhaps CA and ID) average less. (After this post I'll do a quick google check...I'm sure there is a map out there lol). ME does average around 2 tornadoes per year though...my guess is that could be slightly higher but they can get some mean looking supercells in the deep summer months...far enough south to tap into the warmer/humid air and just far enough north to usually get better jet support or steeper lapse rates

ME is also rather underrated for severe wx...especially northern ME. Unfortunately too many trees and not enough people but they can get some nasty looking supercells.

That is a great idea! Hopefully I can get some time put aside soon so I can get back to this. I wish they taught Python at school but it was MATLAB and it wasn't really taught lol. Heck, even the intro programming (or whatever it was called) wasn't really taught. The class was just looking at Powerpoints lol.

I was doing pretty well with Python last summer...then the fall came and I got super swamped. I forget what I was using...was either Jupyter or Conda. But I was having fun with all the mapping packages/data packages. mpl_toolkits, cartopy (this was BRUTAL to get to work...absolutely BRUTAL...took me weeks and dozens and dozens of hours), matplotlib, numpy, etc. I really need to get back into it...only issue is time to devote. Like I need to devote at least several hours a day to it so I can not only understand it but grasp it. Do you know of any oneline python courses that are strictly designed for meteorology? I would certainly pay for those.

Thanks! I gotta get back into learning python...that would be sick to do. Would it be possible to extract daily observations by station and date into an Excel file?

cool...Anchorage had a t'storm yesterday. I can't even get one

Is there another source to look at Daily Climate Reports? This whole crap with some NWS products not working is beyond ridiculous now...especially SPC outlooks...not populating for like 45 minutes past time

indeed

A/C is STUPID. Unless you have a job working outside it's the most ridiculous and outrageous thing ever. Sitting inside and it's FREEZING. I went outside...it's so warm and humid...it feels great. A/C literally is nothing a summer killer. "awwww I got a little sweat trickling down my backside, excuse me while I run in front of the A/C"

Now that’s a true warning.

Bring it back with a large disclaimer in red....if politics are mentioned or if anyone uses political views/differences as a means for whatever they're trying to do or to attack someone...suspend/ban them.

Thanks! wow not bad at all up there! I was definitely hoping/I guess leaning towards the CCB cranking earlier. Guessing CT didn’t get much in the way of anything?