weatherwiz

April 2018 vibes!!!!! Expecting a MAJOR severe wx setup in May...bank on it. BIG ONE

For a second I thought you were talking about the severe wx

That's a great question. I don't think this will be any more volatile than that event but could be similar in magnitude, but displaced a bit farther west. Although one thing to keep in mind too is foliage...much more foliage now than January and that could produce more in the way of tree damage. I really don't think the full extent of the tornado potential will be known until late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

High risk is possible but I still think there are a few things that could negate a high risk...or negate a very significant event from unfolding. It's rather difficult to really portray what I'm trying to say b/c I think a significant event does unfold but I guess it's do we see numerous tornadoes with several long-tracked tornadoes or is it predominately a damaging wind event with several tornadoes? Obviously a large scale widespread damaging wind event can still result in a high risk verification and I think that is possible here. But two things that stand out to me are; 1) Weakening EML 2) Perhaps widespread convective debris 3) Not so favorable llvl lapse rates But given the forcing aloft, dynamics, and degree of moisture return a significant and long persisting squall line is quite likely...maybe derecho like. But the lack of an EML may prevent discrete supercells from being the overall game mode...perhaps many initial supercells but congealing into multiple lines. Could be war of updrafts

We could be setting the stage for a MAJOR severe wx setup in May again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yeah I think Thursday we see a line of strong t'storms move through. Was thinking of making a thread.

Can't believe we're a month away from severe wx season...insane

ONE MONTH TO GO!!!

Just saw that! Been off the past few days and haven't checked much weather...looks like a gusty low topped squall line!

Love it

Down to 59 days!

Only one more full month to go until we hit May...WOW. It's a comin'!!!!!!

We absolutely can start looking at 300= HR progs for convection. I like scrolling the mouse across the time on the SBCAPE charts...already started that

I am just going with a friend...we are not doing a tour company. I know that could be a little risky as neither of have have done chasing out in the Plains and it's completely different than here in the Northeast, however, we're not looking to get up front and close to any tornadoes should we see any. We'll likely be tracking from a rather far distance. At worst (depending on storm mode and hazards) we would maybe try to get into some really good hail and winds.

We'll be tracking severe wx in June and people will still be holing out hope for a pattern change and snow

We are down to 79-days to go!!! Once the 0z GFS completes tonight..it will be into March (well technically still Feb 29 but 0z March 1st!!!) which means there would only be ONE full month left in the model world before May

Approaching mid-February! Is that pattern change still coming? Getting closer and closer to spring

June 5, 2007. That was a fun day. It was a Tuesday. I was at work and this is where my memory is faded but I remember checking something...possibly on a phone but I didn't have a phone at the time but there were I think tornado warnings very nearby. I remember going home and getting onto the computer and there were supercells firing off...like classic supercells. The storm structures were amazing...never seen anything like it (up until that time). I think I may even have a picture of the satellite from that day. What I recall happening was llvl winds backed around the pre-frontal trough as it was coming through and the shear became highly favorable for supercells. Everything also started on the earlier side (late morning). I wonder if it held off a few hours longer if it would have been a bigger event.

That was pretty crazy.

95 days to go!!! Will be doing a countdown post every Monday morning. Will also be incorporating one or two or five posts per week dedicated to a previous convective event.

that's a good point...but yikes thats a bit of money

I bet haha. Much easier and more fun

That sounds pretty exciting! I'm actually strongly considering pursuing masters in the fall...doing the online route at Mississippi State. Some of the classes offered look like a ton of fun

Well folks we are now under 100 days!!! 99 days to go!!!! 99 calendar days to go 99 calendar days to go you rip a date down then its one less day to go!!!!

As we make strides towards the second half of winter that means spring is right around the corner!!! This is usually a great opportunity to start shifting the brain towards convective forecasting. Great time to discuss previous events and start throwing out ideas on how the global pattern may evolve as we move through spring. This May is extra special as I am likely going to go tornado chasing out west for the first time ever!!!! But with that said...can't lose focus on our severe season as once the Plains season winds down we quickly ramp up. 102 Days to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!