weatherwiz

I strongly agree with this.

There could be thundersnow in TX tomorrow

It wasn't that storm??? Holy crap...then I wonder what storm it was. OMG...I've gone all these years thinking it was from that storm. Crap now I'll probably never know

I remember getting thundersnow during that. Was playing outside in the snow with lightning. I think I was outside for like 3-4 hours. I made the mistake of taking a hot bath right when going inside. Ouch

I need to buy that book and the KU books...I'm actually going to do that tonight...at least the KU books. The significant Tornadoes book I think is hard to find and quite expensive...at least when I checked several years ago. Thanks!

I found this book at Walgreens on New Year's Eve about Connecticut Tornadoes. I haven't had the chance to read it yet, but I did read the first 5 pages and it was talking about a major tornado that went through Wethersfield or New Britain I think in the late 1700's.

the weather has just become boring. We can't buy snow events, the Great Plains can't buy severe wx (KS only had 17 tornadoes in 2020...17). I mean I guess when we do get interesting weather we sure get slammed. This just brings a great debate...is it better to get a dozen small events or 1 or 2 big events? (like a winter where you get 1 20'+ event or 13 3-6'' events or a summer with one massive severe weather outbreak or a dozen events with just typical 50-60 mph winds and pea hail). ahhhhhh...this question causes me to lose sleep sometimes

I concur. This actually wants me to really start studying more that whole region of the globe...how evolutions of patterns over the Asia/Russia through the fall correlate to the GOA region moving into winter. There are some teleconnection patterns...I think the PT, WPO, and there is one more which I remember having read have a strong correlation to the pattern evolution within this region but you actually don't see those mentioned very often. Yeah they'll continue getting smoked. From wildfires this summer/fall to avalanches and mudslides now. Fun place

Agreed...I thought so too we might get better help from the EPO but that has really killed us. If the EPO was even slightly more favorable...I think we would be signing a different tune right now. Moving forward the ULJ looks to remain a bit stronger than average and I'm afraid we will get stuck in a progressive type pattern through the next month with very brief deviations...maybe we can sneak something in during these windows but I hate relying on that.

We are also a month or so away from what has started to become an annual February severe wx event

I just hope things sort of change and there is better storm potential. Just looking at the country over the next few weeks...for what's going into the "heart" of winter it's pretty meh.

Well folks, believe it or not, severe weather season is QUICKLY approaching. Yes we are moving into the dead of winter, however, once we reach the top, it's a rapid downhill tumble towards the month of May. Last season we had a few solid events, including the significant outbreak in CT. While we did have a few solid events, the overall convective season (in terms of events SUCKED). I was so pissed off. With COVID, I worked strictly from home from mid-March through I think it was late June or early July...and I live 2 MINUTES from BDL...I was so pumped thinking I would have so many opportunities to watch storms come in at BDL....I ONLY GOT TO GO 2 OR 3 TIMES AND IT WAS LATE SUMMER....UNACCEPTABLE. Let's hope this season fares better. With that said...let's get the countdown rolling with only 113 days to go!!!!!

It really just comes down to how the cards fall. Feb 2018...man everything fell in place nearly perfectly. Regardless of a SSW or not, there are some positives moving into the second half of the month...but I freaking hate saying this I feel like that phrase is worn out lol. But...continued signs for above-average heights into Greenland/Arctic region with a +PNA...SSW or not, those two things are good to see. Now if we can dump some cold into Canada (which also looks to happen)...well we got the pieces just gotta work with em.

Hopefully we can continue to keep punching above-average height anomalies into Greenland and into the Arctic region. The big key regarding the SSW too is the structure of the pattern in the upper troposphere and what's already in place. Maybe the SSW would be responsible, or a driver, into plunging colder air back into Canada and perhaps eventually our way, but if the North American pattern is kinda garbage preceding the SSW...it may not be much help for us. What I really like is the signal for a major ridge to become established across the eastern Pacific...very similar to what we actually saw much of the summer and fall. There also continue to be signals for higher pressure around Greenland and if that can remain the case and be strong the PV should get attacked and weakened. Question: Looking at 18z GFS ~200hr...is that classified as a wave-2 or wave-3 pattern?

meh only on the grassy surfaces

Just speaking in general terms. But too many just solely rely and focus on ENSO for long-range and well...as years have gone on and strides continue to be made with research IMO ENSO is more a back seat kina state as opposed to the driver. I mean sure a super strong ENSO event will probably be a main driver but these weaker events...they aren't the driver or focus of the pattern/evolution as either they once seemed or once used to be. A big player in this is just oceanic heat content in general. For example, take a look at the 1981-2010 climo means compared to the previous base...some weak La Nina events then are literally like a "neutral now". I think there are a couple warm-neutral ENSO events that are now classified as weak NIno too

I know I've made some posts on this but it's becoming more evident that these 'ENSO analogs" we all used to live and die by have less merit and don't hold the weight they perhaps once did. There are numerous reasons for this I think and well...could actually be a fun idea for a thread some day.

depends on position of entry

ohhh...with that amplifying trough/ULL digging in?

hopefully it's poking into the right region

you mean Sunday night?

If moisture return was much stronger ahead of the trough across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic this would probably be a sizable severe weather event. Could certainly see some low topped convection up this way but I think in the end the dynamics will actually be too strong.

Is it too early to start the Christmas eve severe thread? James may get blown into Santa's sleigh

what's the link to this? I was hoping there would be an updated regional one like this on the right (it's a much more visually attractive map) but it is from 7 AM

I agree with your post and loved how you laid it out, however, the problem is most don't use them for the reasons you mentioned above. What they're doing (IMO) is just leading to lazy forecasts and hype (now of course not everyone does this)...especially the younger crowd. At school when there was a winter storm thereat, the first maps that would be pulled up were snow maps...it was just looking at the snow map output from each model and geeking out. But in reality, if the time is spent assessing all variables and data you're going to outperform those maps and be more accurate. It's just like any type of forecasting...anyone can easily just copy and rip and read MOS and probably be fairly accurate, but actually taking the time to assess everything, use knowledge of climo and historical info, you'll beat MOS just about every time.