weatherwiz

I completely agree with your thoughts...makes ton of sense and there is historical backing to those thoughts as well. What site did you get that second graphic from?

Seems like it is also being impacted by some westerly shear? I haven't looked at shear forecasts moving forward but is shear to become more or less favorable?

Do you think we see any type of PRE with this? Models look a bit dry for Monday (though they get wetter Monday night) but given the flow Monday with some lift you have to wonder if we'll see some heavy rain around...maybe not exactly PRE.

I also recall the euro doing a similar solution with (I think it was Michael?) last year? That is certainly possible...I think we'll know just how possible though by this evening. I am shocked this was kept a cat 1 given the recent recon flights. But, if we start seeing signs of strengthening or organization over the next several hours this solution IMO can be tossed pretty quickly...but for now it's something to consider.

All solutions are possible at this stage, however, all these ENS probs are pretty pointless right now. I mean confidence in what happens with Isaias over the next 24-hours is extremely low...so forget about 4-5 days down the road. The prospects for 4-5 days down the road is highly dependent on evolution over the next 24-36 hours so until we get through this period what models shows 4-5 days out is rather pointless.

Is it normal for two recon flights to be flying into a storm at the same time? (Starting to follow tropical much more closely and learn more since it's my weakest aspect of the field).

Yeah...at first I thought the track was a lol but then looking aloft I was like oh ****. If this type of configuration remains modeled like through tomorrow then concern has to be raised

wow...that H5 look on the euro actually looks nearly perfect for such a track...so I guess that gives that solution some type of support

This is something to watch. Seems like many systems that go into this area end up becoming rather slow movers.

yeah I agree it is close...I think the orientation is just a bit off and perhaps would like to see some better digging west of us. Certainly close but when it comes to us...close usually not enough lol. I do think we will see some heavy rain and gusty winds though

The upper level look would lead to me to believe more likely OTS than a hit here...but certainly could see some moisture and gusty winds (much needed rain too!)

One thing I would really love to do is start studying more (reading research papers, finding datasets to do analyses, etc) about the role/significance on the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere and the overall significance/impact this plays on the progression of the pattern moving through the Northern Hemisphere winter. I strongly feel this interaction plays a significant role...moreso than ENSO. One example would be the QBO and it's structure and how it is behaving moving through the fall and winter. Like right now it appears that we are in an upward propagating easterly phase (I think) and if that were to continue into the winter that would certainly increase the prospects for a better Arctic. If we can correlate that to a weak La Nina (this is just a basic look...obviously would want to get into the placement of the coldest anomalies) that would certainly increase prospects for us this winter.

Weren't the warmest anomalies in region 4? Which I mean technically isn't region 4 more into the region where the WHWP will propagate into? I know how the WHWP propagates can influence ENSO (particularly Nino) but I don't recall the global pattern being very "Nino like" last winter.

I completely agree with this. And this is a huge challenge b/c we aren't really sure how much of an impact a warming climate is having on global oscillations and ENSO....the research indicates there is impact but what is the outcome of these impacts? I also agree...there is tremendous value on the monthly or seasonal calculations and averages and for reasons just like you stated...longer, seasonal lead times. However, I wish there was also more research out there which kinda broke these down to smaller time-scale intervals. I know I've said this numerous times but I wish there were like weekly or bi-weekly calculations for the the oscillations. I would love to do this b/c the data needed to do so is available, however, I have zero clue on how to even do this and my math skills are too weak. I also know that at the end of the day it's the structure/placement of the anomalies which hold more weight than a raw number but that doesn't mean there is not value within a raw number. Using a raw value with a map showing structure/anomaly strengthens any potential knowledge gained.

I just wonder how much of a signal or how much of a factor ENSO just plays anymore (obviously in a strong or super-strong event it's going to heavily influence the global configuration) but it just seems the correlations with ENSO just aren't that strong anymore. Now perhaps what could be happening is as the data set continues to expand and we're seeing more variations within the same type of signal regime but ENSO events of late don't seem to be behaving like similar ENSO events of the past. ENSO gets a significant chunk of attention when it comes to seasonal forecasting (especially for the northern hemisphere winter) but I seriously wonder if the main driver is the stratosphere and the stratosphere-troposphere interaction. Now perhaps we're just in a cycle where the PV and it's evolution (both SPV and TPV) has so much weight on the evolution of the northern hemisphere pattern. In terms of the NAO though, I was doing a little bit looking last summer and one thing that intrigued me with a potential indication of how the NAO may evolve or behave moving into the winter was zonal wind anomalies within the Arctic and around Greenland. I don't remember off hand the signal but I want to say easterly (which would make most sense) zonal wind anomalies around the Arctic/Greenland in the fall seemed to correlate to more of a -NAO potential moving into winter. The biggest problem with indices such as the NAO/AO though is there is too much emphasis on the monthly/seasonal value. Perhaps that helps with a long-term pattern configuration, however, it's the variations and transitions on the shorter-term which play a significant role in sensible weather changes...same with the EPO/PNA as well.

Thanks! wow not bad at all up there! I was definitely hoping/I guess leaning towards the CCB cranking earlier. Guessing CT didn’t get much in the way of anything?

Are there any PNS statements or snow total maps? Didn’t see anything on NWS pages.

my mistake...yeah Feb 2006...I think I said Feb 2006 in the paragraph lol. I was thinking of the December 1, 2006 severe wx event when I typed that

1. May 31, 1998 Severe Weather Outbreak - This date can actually be defined as that entire weekend (Friday, May 29 to Sunday, May 31). I was in 4th grade at the time and I was going to my sisters for the weekend who lived in Windsor Locks. I don't remember the exact timing, but we had some real nasty t'storms move through late Friday afternoon. This was a pretty decent event (though I think the worst was just southwest of SNE). IMO, this day also gets very underlooked when discussing the 5/31/98 event as it played a crucial part in the outbreak. The cold front which produced the t'storms Friday, stalled south of the region. This boundary then moved north Sunday as a warm front...and a pretty active one as it produced rain and t'storms...I think even some severe weather. Anyways...enough of the weather set-up. From watching the news and reading the newspaper, I knew there was a risk for severe weather Sunday and I was PUMPED b/c I was going to be in Windsor Locks...just b/c of the 10/3/79 event I associated Windsor Locks with a great severe spot lol. The day started off cloudy/rainy, but by mid-morning skies quickly became sunny and it got hot and humid. I think it was also the neighbors kids birthday b/c there was a party going on...the Red Sox also played the Yankees this day and scored 10 runs in the 3rd inning I think...I remember eating a banana with my two nephews and friends and we were walking up and down the street chanting, "Red Sox rule, Yankees drool". Anyways...I kept closely watching TWC and listening to the radio and the were mentioning tornadoes and I was pumped...then the watch came out. Unfortunately, since I had school the next day I had to return home to West Hartford...I was pissed b/c I wanted to stay. When I got home I didn't even have to put TWC on b/c my parents already had it on. We closely watched as the t'storms in NY started approaching CT. Finally, the storms pushed into the state and a tornado warning went out for Litchfield County and the cell was headed in our direction. My parents went into the kitchen and I heard them making preparations to get myself, two brothers, and our kitty into the basement. My two brothers were scared but I was loving it. The t'storms hit and it was NUTS...strong winds, nickel hail (first time I'd seen hail) and then...a funnel cloud (or what my dad and I swear was a funnel cloud). We were both looking out the window (towards the east) and keep it mind its like 9:30-10:00 PM and real dark...only lightning lighting up the sky. In between the two houses across the street was this incredibly low cloud that may have been rotating. I'll never forget that. Also, around this time we got a call from my sister screaming, "THERE'S A TORNADO....OH MY GOD....THERE'S A TORNADO"...Windsor Locks also doesn't have many homes with basements in them and she is freaking out b/c she had 3 kids at the time...so we told her get into either the bathroom or a closet with blankets. Turns out not a tornado but she was dead smack in the middle of the microburst. 2. December 2006 snowstorm WOW...that was wild. I think I got 14'' of snow in 3-hours; including thundersnow. Ended up with 27'' of snow...half the storm total coming in that 3-hours when the death band just sat and pivoted. By far the most snow I had ever seen...until 2013. 3. June 10, 2008 (I think it was the 10th) 20 minutes of hail...mostly pea but as big as nickle...it piled up and accumulated...never, ever seen anything like that and haven't since. The duration of the hail was unbelievable. 4. May 15, 2018 Was in Danbury on a date that day and we were just a FEW MILES from the Microbust which occurred at Candlewood Lake). Had nickle hail and just insane winds. It was so wild couldn't even hear the thunder. What was really crazy was the power went out even before the gust front got to us. 5. Blizzard of 2013 Jaw dropping snow rates and flake size...it was like a severe thunderstorm with snow...winds were pretty strong too. I think I got 27.5'' of snow or 28' which just beat out Feb 2006. The snow drifts were wild. At some point could barely even see the street from outside my window. I think snow rates were like 3-4''/hour in WeHa. But I think Steve posted getting like 5-6''/hr...those radar returns were beyond insane.

can'tr rule out thunder either. soundings are pretty impressive with some weak instability

true

that may have been the same exact winter I am thinking of. Actually i think you're right

Question...this isn't storm related but I can't remember this for the life of me. I remember several...several winters back...this may even go back to Eastern US Wx days but there was one winter where there was alot of talk about confluence to the north...I think that was the term...but if I am thinking of this correctly having confluence just to our north is NOT good for us...it keeps storm track suppressed to our south?

Jesus...seeing when this was made and then realizing how long we've been at American Wx is insane...7 years now Can't believe how old I'm getting