weatherwiz

Those scare me more than spiders actually LOL. I had one crawl on my face once. I was talking with my friend who is real good with identifying spiders (only other person I know who is good is Will) and I said I am shocked at some of the spiders I've seen here since we don't have a basement and he was saying that could be why...they have nowhere to hide. I wouldn't think the area I'm in would be prone to these big spiders inside...typical house spider, daddy longlegs...sure but I've seen a fishing spider and now a wolf spider. If this was at night I would not be able to sleep.

I want to look into getting a house built and it has to have these capabilities; 1) Withstand winds up to 200 mph 2) Spider proof...I don't care what has to be done or if I need to take out a $1,000,000 loan to make it happen. I'll get the foundation sprayed once a week...and whoever builds is going to make sure there are ZERO cracks and zero ways for spiders to enter. That should be possible...I don't see how it can't. Spiders that big should also not be here in Windsor Locks...let alone inside a house. This is the second time I've seen one this big....that's two times too many. IDK what's going on but this needs to be investigated. I hope it's not climate change related. Wolf spiders inside of a house...if you live in the woods sure BUT THIS ISN"T THE FOOKING WOODS. Fishing spider and now wolf spider...this is bullshit.

I think there is a wolf spider on my kitchen floor. I threw this thing over it. I think the kitty got it though b/c it’s not moving. I’m so scared

Probably a good call. It's a fairly strong HP and pretty big

I think the WAR ridge will be key. Obviously things can change as we move through the cool season but this look in the Atlantic right now isn't very comforting. Models have also really struggled with Atlantic ridging the past few years and I think moreso this summer and that could be a culprit of the lack of cross-country flights. I do recall though some research into +SSTA's around Greenland correlating to a greater chance for a -NAO but of course there are other factors to consider. I'm curious as to whether the smoke from the wildfires in the West will have an influence on the stratosphere? I saw some rumblings about that but I have no knowledge in this aspect. It also looks like we could be heading towards a "basin wide" or "central Pacific" (or whatever you want to call it) La Nina.

Hopefully it will be more exciting than last winter. But I'm real curious about this winter. If the theme of establishing a ridge in the West holds at least through a good part of winter I would think that would bode well for us...but if the SE ridge becomes established we could get an omega like setup so then it becomes a question of where the trough axis is positioned. I really wish I had more time (and knowledge) to explore long-range forecasting. I used to be super, super into it but time is just not there...and my methods for "research" suck and are too time consuming lol.

Hopefully we'll get coastal storms to track but who knows...if this becomes a Nina with a monster SE ridge the storm track may be across MI lol

the Euro has really struggled this summer...especially in the tropical department (actually has been kinda brutal). but I think all models have struggled this summer. I seriously wonder if decline of flights due to COVID is playing a role and a rather significant role. I'm just curious though if the GFS cold bias has been fixed or muted a bit. Thankfully they have gotten some rain in WA/OR but CA...I just have no words. Looks like another hot stretch coming too with 80's and 90's across interior CA...even OAK could get into the 80's again.

The GFS would certainly argue that but the euro argues quite differently. Regardless, it does appear as if we'll see somewhat of a gradient pattern setup so that is certainly possible up north. Looks like a scenario where we sneak in some brief cold shots (at least into NNE). I just can't believe there is another sizable ridge building into the West lol...they can't catch a break.

Monday good drop some decent rain into southwestern CT. Probably going to be a huge cut-off between the heavier rain and virtually nothing with the HP to the north. Monday looks pretty chilly too and breezy

yeah that's a pretty significant increase in lightning over the past half hour or so...certainly looks as impressive as previous bursts.

delicious model...some of it's members include Lays; Ruffles, Doritos

Pretty scary that we're continuing to see model intensity guidance bump in the stronger direction. I agree with @WxWatcher007 too...not very sold on the rapid weakening prior to LF.

Well too be fair, most people are too thanks to the COVID

What sucks is you can't alter the base climo period on this page. https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl If you could do that...ughhh I think you could certainly be able to spot short and long term trends. I suppose though those who are Python experts could probably do something but that is certainly not me.

Thank you! These are my thoughts exactly. I was thinking of using the 1951-2010 option to go about this. This is something that came to me a few years ago. It's actually kinda fun to take a season and then compare it to all the different climo periods. You can actually see a definite shift and in some cases it's pretty striking.

I'm curious for your input (and anyone else who wants to contribute) on something. I've been wanting to get back into some research side of things and one of those things is regarding ENSO. When using the ESRL pages to draw up composites one thing I've been heavily weighing is the climo period being used. Often times, when you see composites thrown around (let's say a much older period) they are being compared to the most recent climo period (in this case 1980-2010). Would you agree, the best course of action to take is to use a base period which is closer to that time you're assessing? For example, Let's say you wanted to see DJF temperature anomalies for the La Nina winter of 1949-1950...would you really want to be using 1981-2010 climo? or would it be much more accurate to compare to a climo period closer to the specific period? I guess at the end of the day the differences shouldn't be large, but I would think it could certainly skew things a bit.

Forgive me if I have misunderstood your post and the jest of what you were saying but from what I gather, you essentially also believe the ENSO-atmospheric response/interaction doesn't hold as much weight as we once thought or as they once did...is that correct? If I did interpret that correctly, I also agree...and strongly. I know ENSO was/still is an "essential tool" behind seasonal forecasting but I fully believe ENSO just isn't that big of a driver...it just seems like there are so many other variables that, when combined, hold more weight than ENSO. Now...is this due to climate change or is it perhaps due to an incorrect understanding we had on ENSO? The later could be very true...especially as the data set regarding different ENSO events expands, the different strengths, and even the structure of the anomalies themselves. But...if the oceans overall are becoming warmer and we constantly see the majority of ocean temperatures being warmer than average...this I'm sure will hold a significant amount of weight and influence teleconnections and how they dictate global weather patterns...regardless of ENSO state.

Has NOAA been hacked or something? They've seem to be having some extensive problems or the better part of the last several months...server issues, product issues, older data/graphics being displayed, model issues. It's been pretty bad.

I'm really beginning to despise social media. I certainly see the good in it, however, I question whether the good outweighs the bad. I couldn't agree more regarding the conspiracy theories and fake news. What is also really irritating me are all these memes being floated around with information/statistics and they are shared like it's gospel...it's like if it's on a meme it's gotta be true. Now I totally get some people just share this stuff and don't take it seriously but many do. It's so easy to come up with a meme and throw info on their that supports a stance and for it to then be shared wildly by those who share the same stand. It's also irritating in terms of weather...just so much crap gets posted around. during tropical season...312-HR GFS maps showing a system over NYC...during winter...24-HR TOTAL snowfall maps...for severe...a 96-HR GFS SHARPpy sounding showing PDS Tornado...all this stuff does is generate unecessary hype...it gets into the hands of the wrong people, people get freaked out, and when that scenario doesn't unfold, forecasters are blamed...even though its weenies posting nonsensical trash.

You would think we are headed towards a stronger Nina episode based on how everything has transitioned the past few weeks. I kinda hate looking so closely at SSTA's this early and putting a significant amount of thought into them (outside of the Nino region) but it's kinda hard to ignore the striking configuration...but I guess with climate change such a look is just going to become the norm. In the PAC, outside of the ENSO region it's pretty much bath water...especially the NPAC from East Asia to the western North American coast. The PDO has become quite negative as well (perhaps also influencing the rapidly developing Nina?). Obviously the NPAC (more specifically the Gulf of Alaska) is prone to changes and we could see these anomalies cool some as we we into the cool season. But as long as the anomalies remain this impressive you would think this will result in strong latent heat release which could keep ridging established in this region...of course which may not be a bad thing for us. The Atlantic too (especially off the East coast) is extremely warmer than average (thanks in part to the lack of cold fronts and established ridging). Even off the coast of Greenland it's super warm. This could perhaps leads to one of two things; 1) Keeps NATL ridging established well into the winter with ridging extending to the East 2) Enhance the probability for a negative NAO/AO If we are able to establish a ridge into the West hopefully we can be sandwiched between the two ridges...and then it's just a matter of where the trough axis can become established. I think there is quite a bit of potential in this upcoming winter. In terms of ENSO, we should continue to see quite a bit of cooling in the ENSO regions...quite a bit of easterly wind bursts and a pretty significant one forecast too right around the dateline:

Ahh I'm not far from there at all. Looks like it's right off Mill Plain. That's the road I use to/from Branford-North Branford then to 91 in Wallingford.

Awesome thanks! I won't be able to today but I will do so on Tuesday!

Where about's is that? I actually don't know Branford quite well lol. I basically just know the road from about exit 54 to exit 55.

Down in Branford for the firs time since last Thursday...wow. I usually get off exit 14 on 91 and go back roads from Wallingford through North Branford then into Branford and holy crap...literally every single house I passed had piles of cut up trees, limbs, branches on the curb. The Dunkin Donuts I go to had a huge clearing of trees in the back too. Even the trees not taken down the damage to them is evident...tops severely damaged or even some trees with a good amount of leaves ripped off.