weatherwiz

Exactly...and it's really how you learn/understand and developing forecasting skill and try to improve accuracy. Not to mention raise awareness when needed.

I mean pretty much...especially when you're dealing with smaller-scale phenomena like convection. However, even the term "maybe" is not proper...although if you're talking location-specific weather than "maybe" applies. So about Tuesday the only "maybe" is whether location's "A" "B" C" "D" "E", etc. will get a t'storm. However, when assessing the entire region there likely is no "maybe" about it. A cold front is forecast to enter a hot, and humid airmass with sufficient dynamics. There will be t'storms...there will probably be some severe ones. Will everyone get a t'storm? No. Will everyone who gets a t'storm witness severe criteria? No. Will there be t'storms within the region? Yes Will some of those be severe? Probably have a few at least.

It's not a "maybe"...it's weather...there is never any guarantee. In the case of convective forecasting (which is where my biggest strength is in forecasting), I love to start sniffing events up to 7-days out. There is no better way to learn more about weather than to spend time tracking potential through models and then watching everything unfold in real time. About 7-days out if I see any type of synoptic support for convection I'm intrigued and I will follow everyday.

A cold front is set to move through the region sometime Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front it will be rather hot and humid with temperatures ranging from the mid-to-upper 80's to the mid 90's and dewpoints into the 70's. Not a single person will be walking around without toilet paper stuck to them. Anyways, this isn't a big severe threat...I don't think anyways, but the one thing that interests me is a seasonably strong mid-level jet associated with a large-scale trough digging through the Great Lakes and through New England. The best shear may lag the front but these details can be ironed out as we get closer. Anyways, as it stands right now the potential should arise for the possibility of multiple line segments which will carry the risk for damaging winds depending on how this scenario unfolds. One thing I would like to see is a much stronger shortwave as the main shortwave energy is north into Canada...but forcing from the front, modest shear, and ample CAPE should suffice for some t'storms/severe threat.

can you tell I'm severe deprived

2 days in a row with no covid-related deaths in CT!

can we just bring the thread back with heavy disclaimers so much great stuff to discuss...especially with clinical trial results and potential for vaccines.

That is some ridge into the central U.S. H5 temps like -1 to -2C into the north-central Plains

Over the weekend there were 27,323 tests done in CT and only 162 came back positive (0.59%). We've got to be approaching 3-4 weeks now in CT where the percent rate has been around or below 1%. Hospitalizations down to 54.

I've heavily contemplated doing northern Plains rather than like southern Plains for chasing. Everyone loves May and early June in OK/KS, however, I think farther north offers just as much in terms of severe and without chaster convergence. Only issue I think is you can pretty much book a two week period in OK during late May well out and the odds of having at least one event are high. Waiting until like deeper in summer when they are active up north is a bit of a challenge...especially when factoring in taking time off of work. Some jobs you need to gives like months in advance.

I wonder how chasing is up that way.

the rapid RI is probably hindering the overall hail/tornado potential. Upscale growth will be very quick. Radar watching will be fun. Storms probably going from a TCU to 55K monsters in minutes lol

maybe LCL's are too high but I was shocked they didn't mention risk for a strong tornado very early on in the game...perhaps just a small window too b/c everything will become linear quickly but the ingredients are there that should a discrete cell take off it could go nuts. Thinking we see a 4'' hail report today

same. MLCAPE too getting to 4000-5000 J...that's ridiculous. Derecho composite already at a 10 too.

DERECHO!!!

Sunday certainly looks more humid with a deeper plume of moisture moving in. Saturday dews could drop into the mid-to-upper 50's...lower 60's along the coast and lower 70's in Kevin's backyard

The best day to combine heat/dews would like be Monday...should see better moisture pooling ahead of the "front" with 850 dews ~15-16C. Question is how does cloud cover/convective potential screw temp potential?

I am so grateful CT continues to do so excellent.

Monday maybe another NNE special? Depending on cloud/convective potential but looks like there is greater convective potential down this way.

I believe it. Moisture is rather shallow and 850 dews aren't anything to write home about so once we crank the mixing up goes the temperatures and down goes the dews

Is this just to much to ask for

One thing I would really love to do is start studying more (reading research papers, finding datasets to do analyses, etc) about the role/significance on the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere and the overall significance/impact this plays on the progression of the pattern moving through the Northern Hemisphere winter. I strongly feel this interaction plays a significant role...moreso than ENSO. One example would be the QBO and it's structure and how it is behaving moving through the fall and winter. Like right now it appears that we are in an upward propagating easterly phase (I think) and if that were to continue into the winter that would certainly increase the prospects for a better Arctic. If we can correlate that to a weak La Nina (this is just a basic look...obviously would want to get into the placement of the coldest anomalies) that would certainly increase prospects for us this winter.

Wednesday looks intriguing but we're going to be dealing with a crappy mlvl lapse rate situation but at least we look to have decent shear with perhaps MLCAPE 1500-2000 J if we maximize heating. I suppose if we can really muster dews in the 73-75 range that can compensate for the crappy lapse rates a bit. Would be great to see a nice squall line blow through.

from experience...that's exactly what is needed

The beaches thing is ridiculous. Was trying to go camping this weekend but seems like many places are all booked. Just have to lay in the yard naked I guess