weatherwiz

Forecast 3km CAPE for I think 19z today. Want to watch how that progresses moving into SNE. Also a push of MLCAPE of 250-500 J. Going to be an active day

I wonder if that is factoring in any thunderstorms...even if so that's pretty decent stuff

That is one impressive LLJ modeled to traverse CT/RI/SE MA afternoon into the evening. The core of the LLJ max too also arrives while we still have some daylight so that will help with winds too (some better mixing). Then towards evening you get an impressive surge of CAPE...even some very weak surface based CAPE...but you get any sfc based CAPE in this environment and you're going to get winds. T'storms should have potential to produce 70 mph wind gusts. I think you'll see quite a bit of power outages tomorrow

Really no thread on this??? Looks like ingredients will align on what should amount to a fairly widespread severe weather event with damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes from the mid-Atlantic through southern New England. Forecast models really hinting at a rather impressive surge of instability with very strong dynamics. While we will also have a temperature inversion to contend with, there should be strong non-convective wind gusts as well (30-40 mph). Scattered power outages, flash flooding, and damaging winds all in the cards for tomorrow.

Just enough 3km CAPE poking into the Cape with more than enough shear for a possible tornado. Also, check out the rapid increase in lightning just prior to the tightening couplet. Sometimes that can be a tell take sign for potential tornado genesis IMG_5278.MP4

It's just not a good look that first week for any meaningful cold. Even though the AO/NAO do head negative, it looks like that is driving by some higher height anomalies poking into the southern part of those domains which isn't really favorable for us. Even if we had higher heights into the PNA region I don't think that does much to help given the lack of cold. But yeah, after 12/5 or around that time frame the Pacific looks a bit better with teleconnection support to drive some cold into Canada...so if we can keep a theme going of higher heights into the West maybe mid-December we'll have a shot.

Twitter world is starting to go crazy about the first week of December but after what we've learned from last year there is a helluva lot more than just the pattern "looking good". When you look at the forecast H5 height anomalies I actually expected much more of a colder look at the sfc but that just doesn't seem to be there. It does look like we'll get a brief cold shot but that is behind the system . Also too many hints for cyclogenesis to be fairly far west but that is something that can certainly change.

That is a pretty crazy jet extension being modeled moving into at least the first week of December. Raging jet too

It's been a bit rough...stressed with work and my girlfriend and I broke up a few weeks ago. I was actually going to make a thread here last Thursday or Friday for Sunday but forgot. I was down in Bethel for the event and the winds were quite strong...I would estimate gusts were easily 50-60 mph.

I'm here @Damage In Tolland Are you happy

Did anyone see the new products on Cod models??? 250/500 height, speed, u anomalies 850 temp anomalies sfc temp/MSLP anoamlies

Does Kevin Cash get a ring?

oh shit...the spider is alive...someone please send help

Nice...I'm actually glad to hear this. I sort of cringe when I think about what most structures around here can withstand in terms of winds My house will be the only one standing when a cat 3 or higher rips through.

Same here...typically you see just one or maybe two types of spiders but I've had to see about 4 or 5 different types. The worst is in the bathroom. There isn't a single day that I don't see a spider...and sometimes multiple. There has to be a nest somewhere just not sure where. My guess is where the hot water heater is. I did find a dead baby mouse in front of the hot water heater too the other day...wonder if a spider got it

Those scare me more than spiders actually LOL. I had one crawl on my face once. I was talking with my friend who is real good with identifying spiders (only other person I know who is good is Will) and I said I am shocked at some of the spiders I've seen here since we don't have a basement and he was saying that could be why...they have nowhere to hide. I wouldn't think the area I'm in would be prone to these big spiders inside...typical house spider, daddy longlegs...sure but I've seen a fishing spider and now a wolf spider. If this was at night I would not be able to sleep.

I want to look into getting a house built and it has to have these capabilities; 1) Withstand winds up to 200 mph 2) Spider proof...I don't care what has to be done or if I need to take out a $1,000,000 loan to make it happen. I'll get the foundation sprayed once a week...and whoever builds is going to make sure there are ZERO cracks and zero ways for spiders to enter. That should be possible...I don't see how it can't. Spiders that big should also not be here in Windsor Locks...let alone inside a house. This is the second time I've seen one this big....that's two times too many. IDK what's going on but this needs to be investigated. I hope it's not climate change related. Wolf spiders inside of a house...if you live in the woods sure BUT THIS ISN"T THE FOOKING WOODS. Fishing spider and now wolf spider...this is bullshit.

I think there is a wolf spider on my kitchen floor. I threw this thing over it. I think the kitty got it though b/c it’s not moving. I’m so scared

Probably a good call. It's a fairly strong HP and pretty big

I think the WAR ridge will be key. Obviously things can change as we move through the cool season but this look in the Atlantic right now isn't very comforting. Models have also really struggled with Atlantic ridging the past few years and I think moreso this summer and that could be a culprit of the lack of cross-country flights. I do recall though some research into +SSTA's around Greenland correlating to a greater chance for a -NAO but of course there are other factors to consider. I'm curious as to whether the smoke from the wildfires in the West will have an influence on the stratosphere? I saw some rumblings about that but I have no knowledge in this aspect. It also looks like we could be heading towards a "basin wide" or "central Pacific" (or whatever you want to call it) La Nina.

Hopefully it will be more exciting than last winter. But I'm real curious about this winter. If the theme of establishing a ridge in the West holds at least through a good part of winter I would think that would bode well for us...but if the SE ridge becomes established we could get an omega like setup so then it becomes a question of where the trough axis is positioned. I really wish I had more time (and knowledge) to explore long-range forecasting. I used to be super, super into it but time is just not there...and my methods for "research" suck and are too time consuming lol.

Hopefully we'll get coastal storms to track but who knows...if this becomes a Nina with a monster SE ridge the storm track may be across MI lol

the Euro has really struggled this summer...especially in the tropical department (actually has been kinda brutal). but I think all models have struggled this summer. I seriously wonder if decline of flights due to COVID is playing a role and a rather significant role. I'm just curious though if the GFS cold bias has been fixed or muted a bit. Thankfully they have gotten some rain in WA/OR but CA...I just have no words. Looks like another hot stretch coming too with 80's and 90's across interior CA...even OAK could get into the 80's again.

The GFS would certainly argue that but the euro argues quite differently. Regardless, it does appear as if we'll see somewhat of a gradient pattern setup so that is certainly possible up north. Looks like a scenario where we sneak in some brief cold shots (at least into NNE). I just can't believe there is another sizable ridge building into the West lol...they can't catch a break.

Monday good drop some decent rain into southwestern CT. Probably going to be a huge cut-off between the heavier rain and virtually nothing with the HP to the north. Monday looks pretty chilly too and breezy