weatherwiz

Based on what just happened with Puerto Rico a turned certainly can't be ruled out. Looks like this idea is related to the forward speed of Dorian. the 12z guidance though has a pretty strong clustering with this though. Steering flow looks to bring it right into FL too...but any weaknesses within the upper pattern could certainly change things.

I highly doubt the airport would be open Monday if current projections hold.

The rainfall potential here scares me...I wouldn't be surprised to see some 15-25'' rainfall amounts. That would be catastrophic. Heck, even storm surge has me a bit worried.

Could be very bad news for parts of FL. Some of the scenarios are pretty worrisome too with Dorian just stalling (which is a very real possibility) and dumping very significant rainfall totals. Could be very bad news...especially with coastal flooding/storm surge

WTF with the last 3-4 pages Maybe Donald Trump should just nuke this thread instead

Gotcha...I have never really followed tropical much and was using this in conjunction from what I have read...so virtually my being not very knowledgeable (especially with regards to the "climo") makes it difficult to use historical information with what I'm looking at.

where did you get that from...that's pretty cool. Anyways I've predominately been following along with this all summer. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting it http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

I was shocked to see NOAA increase their numbers last week. I'll be the first to admit that my knowledge regarding tropical activity is extremely low, but some of the reasoning I've been seeing out there from others is a bit head scratching. The focus primarily seems to be on 1) SST's in the Atlantic 2) EL Nino being officially dead (in terms of the definition used to define an event) woah...woah...woah...woah There is a helluva lot more which goes into potential tropical activity than SST's and ENSO. SST's aren't a driver in tropical activity, SST's promote an ingredient needed for strengthening. Very similar to that of CAPE and t'storms...CAPE is not a driver in convection. Just b/c EL Nino is not officially defined anymore doesn't mean the atmosphere is just going to automatically adjust. Anyways, the entire PAC is above-average (except for the cold tongue punching through 1.2. The atmosphere can still very much act EL Nino-ish. Looking at the ATL...the ATL has been completely dominated by SAL and there aren't really many signs this will reduce anytime soon. Even if the degree of SAL decreased what's out there just isn't going to dissipate overnight. There have also been some big areas of wind shear which just isn't going to relax b/c we say EL Nino is dead. If we see tropical activity is will likely be tied to any Kelvin wave activity which can propagate into the Atlantic. Perhaps we'll see things in the Atlantic become more favorable overtime but I would be shocked is this season ended up above-average. Obviously things can heat up very quickly and we can see a later season but I think we would have to see drastic changes and those type of changes just aren't going to happen overnight and I'm sure there is going to be a pretty big lag in the change response.

It was quite an interesting class. I suggested it should be instituted into the major as a required class. It was offered as an elective and only b/c several students were interested in it. Even certain teleconnections such as the NAO, PDO, QBO, MJO were briefly touched upon. I was fortunate enough (and it's from the bored) to have had knowledge in all this, but for those in the class who didn't they were in awe. It's tough for schools though b/c they have to follow strict AMS regulations in terms of what is required. I'm with you...I wish I had more time as well. I thought when I was back in school I would explode with all the research ideas I had been working on for the years leading up to going back and have the time to do more with learning about the weather, but working two jobs and the course/work load threw all that out the window.

My last semester I took a tropical meteorology class and the professor who taught it had his doctorate focused on tropical (and did a substantial amount of research with AEW's and the AEJ)...anyways it was an incredibly interesting class and we talked about so much which influences tropical...one of the more interesting things we discussed was actually tropical wave activity in and around the Indian Ocean as well as SST's across the Indian Ocean. Then there was the TUTT and it's influences in the Atlantic.

It's also a weak Nino (and actually using 3.4 criteria we have officially met the criteria) and I'm sure there are other factors which can certainly outweigh this. Anyways with climate change and all I don't think the whole ENSO correlation to tropical activity has as much merit as it used to have. I may be wrong since I'm going off memory, but haven't the past few Nino's actually had above-average activity in the Atlantic? With the AMO looking like it is transitioning towards the negative phase I wonder if this starts to take dominance. I haven't looked at the AMM but will have to see how that transitions moving through the spring.

I was hoping to gain some perspective in gaining further knowledge with wind forecasting using MOS and bufkit by hearing others experiences. Over the past several months having the opportunity to forecast for select locations across the country I've gained a tremendous amount of experience with weather all across the country and the challenges of forecasting. When I'm making wind forecasts (both wind direction, sustained winds, and potential gusts) I put alot of focus in bufkit, however, I'll also refer to MOS (more specifically for direction). Until I gain enough experience and confidence in the cities I forecast for I will at times check what the NWS has to say and compare to what I was thinking. I have noticed at times major differences between the NAM and GFS bufkit with regards to wind/gust potential (which stems down to I guess mixing and differences between the mixing algorithm (?) in each model and also sometimes a big difference between what I would interpret from bufkit and what the NWS has forecasted. For those who forecasts winds I would love to hear any experiences you have had with this and perhaps whats the best route to take when there are big differences.

can'tr rule out thunder either. soundings are pretty impressive with some weak instability

true

that may have been the same exact winter I am thinking of. Actually i think you're right

Question...this isn't storm related but I can't remember this for the life of me. I remember several...several winters back...this may even go back to Eastern US Wx days but there was one winter where there was alot of talk about confluence to the north...I think that was the term...but if I am thinking of this correctly having confluence just to our north is NOT good for us...it keeps storm track suppressed to our south?

Jesus...seeing when this was made and then realizing how long we've been at American Wx is insane...7 years now Can't believe how old I'm getting

If anyone is interested in an NFL pick-em league we have two leagues which members on this board can participate in. One of the leagues is free and has been an ongoing tradition of Eastern/American Wx for at least 10 years now. This league is done directly through this forum in the sports thread. The second league is entering its third season here on the boards and is a pay-league. He platform we've used in the past is yahoo, however, a different platform may be used this year. If you have any interest in participating in one or both of the leagues check out the following thread. The more participants, the more fun the league, and for the pay league, the more potential winnings! https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50203-nfl-pick-em-2017-2018/#comment-4596041

I wouldn't really be surprised to see some dry slotting in that area. The 700mb low has been taking shape and actually seems to be pushing a bit further north than east and might be closing off a little more west than it is now...can see dry air beginning to wrap in around it

how far east?

It's going to be impossible for models, especially the models with not as coarse of a resolution to accurately or consistently depict the exact SLP track or even placement. This is a very compact system with very deep pressure and so many tight pressure contours packed together. Seeing how the wobbles, whether they are slight ticks west or slight ticks east probably don't mean much at all. We're really just going to have to follow mesoanalysis and even the RAP might not 100% accurately depict exact placement. The point is, the slight variations we are seeing really don't mean much for many in this forum, but probably more for extreme western CT back towards NYC. However, the precipitation should is rather expansive and will continue to be expansive into the overnight hours. Don't forget, this system is still in the beginning stages of maturation and all the processes are coming together for further strengthening and expansion of the precip shield. frontogenesis at all levels indicate we will continue seeing numerous heavy bands develop, perhaps even convective bands, over the next several hours and even as far west as NYC, which we are currently seeing happen. One thing I am a little concerned with, however, is having too many heavier bands isn't always great thing b/c there will be subsidence zones and that is something the GFS sort of hints at becoming the case later on as seen by negative VV values...so this is something to certainly watch. While one area is getting pounded, another is getting shafted.

That's exactly why the GFS is too far east IMO (the current 0z run)...with what is bolded that all should allow for a further west track than what the GFS has now.

I could see two different areas of max jackpots in this. I think Ray mentioned a page or two back about he could see a NE MA jackpot...and the other jackpot right around the same area that is suggested in the map from Channel 12 bbou-something posted above

While the NAM doesn't appear to have any dry slots it still looks like there are less than ideal RH values we would be dealing with. Take a look at both H7 and H85 and the RH fields. Not like seeing less than 90% RH values at H7 and especially below H85. Seems like some drier air gets en-trained over the area from the NE on the NAM...so while the NAM might be spitting out some insane totals or whatever.