weatherwiz

OMG

it does seem like its trying to get its act together. some impressive hot towers blowing up. Also, HOW THE HELL DO YOU PRONOUNCE THiS SUCKERS NAME???

This is a completely different scenario than Fay...IMO. Perhaps the second half of the week would be more likely to be on the drier side as the flow flattens out but regardless of what happens with Isaias the flow is strong and southerly with an approaching front. Even if it were to go into FL...I am sure we would tap into moisture and advect it northward.

ehh not sure I totally agree with that. Given the position of the trough axis and mean flow ahead of it we'll get typical summer-time pop up downpours and t'storms daily...but to your point certainly nothing that would provide widespread relief.

I'm sure too the size has to play a significant factor in the progression of it as it moves up the coast. I thought too that these systems typically expand as they move north in latitude (especially if the system is transitioning from tropical to sub-tropical or extra-tropical). A smaller system could also perhaps mean a higher probability for some significant impact on a localized level?

Talk about agreement We could see that for a blizzard here and the storm would still go OTS or cut west

Ahhh interesting...thanks. This system does look to be rather small and compact. This is great, thank you!

I completely agree with your thoughts...makes ton of sense and there is historical backing to those thoughts as well. What site did you get that second graphic from?

Seems like it is also being impacted by some westerly shear? I haven't looked at shear forecasts moving forward but is shear to become more or less favorable?

Do you think we see any type of PRE with this? Models look a bit dry for Monday (though they get wetter Monday night) but given the flow Monday with some lift you have to wonder if we'll see some heavy rain around...maybe not exactly PRE.

I also recall the euro doing a similar solution with (I think it was Michael?) last year? That is certainly possible...I think we'll know just how possible though by this evening. I am shocked this was kept a cat 1 given the recent recon flights. But, if we start seeing signs of strengthening or organization over the next several hours this solution IMO can be tossed pretty quickly...but for now it's something to consider.

All solutions are possible at this stage, however, all these ENS probs are pretty pointless right now. I mean confidence in what happens with Isaias over the next 24-hours is extremely low...so forget about 4-5 days down the road. The prospects for 4-5 days down the road is highly dependent on evolution over the next 24-36 hours so until we get through this period what models shows 4-5 days out is rather pointless.

Is it normal for two recon flights to be flying into a storm at the same time? (Starting to follow tropical much more closely and learn more since it's my weakest aspect of the field).

Yeah...at first I thought the track was a lol but then looking aloft I was like oh ****. If this type of configuration remains modeled like through tomorrow then concern has to be raised

wow...that H5 look on the euro actually looks nearly perfect for such a track...so I guess that gives that solution some type of support

This is something to watch. Seems like many systems that go into this area end up becoming rather slow movers.

yeah I agree it is close...I think the orientation is just a bit off and perhaps would like to see some better digging west of us. Certainly close but when it comes to us...close usually not enough lol. I do think we will see some heavy rain and gusty winds though

The upper level look would lead to me to believe more likely OTS than a hit here...but certainly could see some moisture and gusty winds (much needed rain too!)

One thing I would really love to do is start studying more (reading research papers, finding datasets to do analyses, etc) about the role/significance on the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere and the overall significance/impact this plays on the progression of the pattern moving through the Northern Hemisphere winter. I strongly feel this interaction plays a significant role...moreso than ENSO. One example would be the QBO and it's structure and how it is behaving moving through the fall and winter. Like right now it appears that we are in an upward propagating easterly phase (I think) and if that were to continue into the winter that would certainly increase the prospects for a better Arctic. If we can correlate that to a weak La Nina (this is just a basic look...obviously would want to get into the placement of the coldest anomalies) that would certainly increase prospects for us this winter.

Weren't the warmest anomalies in region 4? Which I mean technically isn't region 4 more into the region where the WHWP will propagate into? I know how the WHWP propagates can influence ENSO (particularly Nino) but I don't recall the global pattern being very "Nino like" last winter.

I completely agree with this. And this is a huge challenge b/c we aren't really sure how much of an impact a warming climate is having on global oscillations and ENSO....the research indicates there is impact but what is the outcome of these impacts? I also agree...there is tremendous value on the monthly or seasonal calculations and averages and for reasons just like you stated...longer, seasonal lead times. However, I wish there was also more research out there which kinda broke these down to smaller time-scale intervals. I know I've said this numerous times but I wish there were like weekly or bi-weekly calculations for the the oscillations. I would love to do this b/c the data needed to do so is available, however, I have zero clue on how to even do this and my math skills are too weak. I also know that at the end of the day it's the structure/placement of the anomalies which hold more weight than a raw number but that doesn't mean there is not value within a raw number. Using a raw value with a map showing structure/anomaly strengthens any potential knowledge gained.

I just wonder how much of a signal or how much of a factor ENSO just plays anymore (obviously in a strong or super-strong event it's going to heavily influence the global configuration) but it just seems the correlations with ENSO just aren't that strong anymore. Now perhaps what could be happening is as the data set continues to expand and we're seeing more variations within the same type of signal regime but ENSO events of late don't seem to be behaving like similar ENSO events of the past. ENSO gets a significant chunk of attention when it comes to seasonal forecasting (especially for the northern hemisphere winter) but I seriously wonder if the main driver is the stratosphere and the stratosphere-troposphere interaction. Now perhaps we're just in a cycle where the PV and it's evolution (both SPV and TPV) has so much weight on the evolution of the northern hemisphere pattern. In terms of the NAO though, I was doing a little bit looking last summer and one thing that intrigued me with a potential indication of how the NAO may evolve or behave moving into the winter was zonal wind anomalies within the Arctic and around Greenland. I don't remember off hand the signal but I want to say easterly (which would make most sense) zonal wind anomalies around the Arctic/Greenland in the fall seemed to correlate to more of a -NAO potential moving into winter. The biggest problem with indices such as the NAO/AO though is there is too much emphasis on the monthly/seasonal value. Perhaps that helps with a long-term pattern configuration, however, it's the variations and transitions on the shorter-term which play a significant role in sensible weather changes...same with the EPO/PNA as well.

Thanks! wow not bad at all up there! I was definitely hoping/I guess leaning towards the CCB cranking earlier. Guessing CT didn’t get much in the way of anything?

Are there any PNS statements or snow total maps? Didn’t see anything on NWS pages.

my mistake...yeah Feb 2006...I think I said Feb 2006 in the paragraph lol. I was thinking of the December 1, 2006 severe wx event when I typed that