weatherwiz

Going from 1-3'' across the coast to 6-10'' in 24 hours

You used to pick me up and drop me off there

The one with 6-10'' like 84 and points east with 3-6'' west or one from yesterday lol

The banding is going to be real and its legit. Someone certainly will pull off a 10-16'' total wherever the band sets up. Rates certainly 1.5''/HR...can't rule out 2'' either I suppose.

I deleted the OP as the sizing came out awful. I'm becoming very confident in a band of very heavy snow passing over CT. Bufkit soundings show a prolonged period of omega values -10 to -20 within the DGZ with sufficient moisture. Think we could push 12:1 to 13:1 ratios for a time.

Becoming increasingly confident in heavy banding over CT. Bufkit soundings look pretty solid. Nice low track too.

You've been on fire lately

It's pretty close to Miami too...wonder if it makes a quick stop. Maybe that's why some models go QPF happy.

I think the NAM is vastly overdoing the degree (and strength of convection) in the warm sector out over the ocean. Looks like the NAM gets vort happy around the areas of convection and revolves the configuration of everything based on that....I mean the NAM doesn't look all that bad, but I think in reality this honestly may be something more like the GFS.

They could get saved by a more northerly flow...so even despite no high to the north it might be tough for them to warm enough to taint. If anything they would get a heavy/wet snow. I would think a N wind too could also enhance potential for a huge band of snow right along 95 maybe?

Do you think there will be any taint issues along the immediate shoreline? Starting to think that will not be the case. I'm going to look real stupid going from 1-3'' along the shore to 8-12'' lmao

I am a bit worried about the gradient though and where that sets up. I could see some parts of the state pulling off like 8-10'' and other parts like 3-4''

The GFS has overestimated lift the past few events (and even by quite a bit at times), however, I do think it may be more correct with this one. Even the 6z NAM wasn't terrible. I think it had 15 units of omega.

CT. Not going to do that, but the GFS is pretty sweet looking here. If 12z runs give these indications may have to go something close. I'm sure there will be some banding where totals may approach these numbers.

The 6z GFS has 30 units of omega right into the DGZ at BDL. Tempting to go like 10-14'' off the GFS alone

ahhh gotcha...misinterpreted your post. I completely see what you're saying.

Might end up with like 1/2'' to an inch here this morning before all said and done

Everyone is just afraid of getting sued nowadays...that's what these decisions come down to. There are probably some school districts now who cancel school or delay school more times in one winter than I went through my entire life going to school.

I don't think today should have been that much of a surprise. Signal for these snow showers this morning had been there since Tuesday or so. But society is really becoming bleak...now you have schools letting out b/c of snow squalls and this morning there are delays b/c of a coating of snow. It has nothing to do with lack of info to the public...it has to do with the fact that people drive like idiots. 100 accidents are going to happen whether people knew about a coating of snow or not.

Trying to save him from meltdown territory

Sorry James, but you're mixing

I'm thinking the max totals within the banding are probably right around 8-10''. Think it will be tough to really do better than that unless a band completely rips over someone. Tough to figure out the placement. Still seems like convection is throwing off the NAM...it's VV distribution doesn't seem to make much sense as well as a few other things on the NAM

Coating of snow in Branford. Probably will up my map from 3-6'' to 4-8'' if I get time this afternoon...I was worried about mixing at the shore and only went 1-3'' there, but that might be a total bust on my part.

Seema to be a huge bias of the NAM in these types of setups and struggles mightily. I thought the GFS May have had a good handle with this and even the look on the euro has been intriguing.

The NAM has been extremely weird as of late (and by late for quite a while). One of my professors pointed it out. Part of the struggles with this system too is we’re not dealing with a consolidated piece of energy. There are numerous pieces of energy embedded within the flow and the models are struggling vastly. It’s certainly a good sign though that as we get closer to the 24-hr mark we’re nudging towards solutions of higher snow as opposed to less snow. one thing I’ve always liked are how tightly packed the thermal gradient is...that’s always a signal for not only solid banding, but a good indicator of where it can be anticipated.