weatherwiz

Let's hope we can get this signal to persist into June. Would almost certainly get some EML plumes into our area. I wonder if we've ever had back-to-back years with EML events? I know we've had multiple within a single year, but not sure about consecutive years.

Doing some stuff with record highs and lows and it got me thinking...I wonder what the longest standing record high and low is (like what year they date back too). MEM has some which go back into at least the 1870's. Gotta be some stuff before that I bet...or wonder.

What also sucks too is the inside of the car is nice and toasty, but cruising down the highway you can the colder air blowing in through the vents at your feet. And if you put the heat on the feet setting you end up roasting. With it off 90% of your body is warm and your feets are frozen

Could be a couple pretty cold nights next week.

If the front can time slower and we can materialize some instability Sunday we may have a chance for some grauple if we can get enough elevated instability. Lapse rates may be just steep enough.

I agree

This is perfect! Thank you. That's the exact format I was looking for. I tried the regional climatic data center cites, CPC, and a few other places.

weather.com and wunderground used to have a very user friendly data set where you could get daily max temp/min temp records all listed in a way where you just click the month and it gives the record high/low for each day. I guess though with all the site designs over the few years has changed. Does anyone know of any place where you can get them and where you can view easily? weather.com still had it, but you have to click on each day.

A friend in Naugatuck reported 12''. I think when you're dealing with rates as intense as what we had last night some big swings in a small distance probably become more likely due to the intensity of the echos. I mean we're talking convectively enhanced precip here...very similar to summer convection where it could be a torrential downpour and 5 city blocks away it's still heavy, but not as intense.

I remember last year at school we only had like 11'' and Newtown had 16'' or 17'' lol.

I think the last few times we've had significant March snow events it's been followed by both an active severe wx season here and tornado events.

Maybe like 1/4'' here in Branford. I

Man what a horrific bust on my part...and from both calls. I for sure thought we would get solid banding across CT, but I should have known never to rely on banding alone given how fickle that could be. I also thought this might be a case where the mesos would be wrong. I

Should still see decent banding enter at least a parts of CT. Can see 850 fronto deceloping nicely. Hopefully some 700 fronto develops as well across southern areas. Maybe some spots there can still pull close to 6”

That is my biggest fear and what I was heavily basing my map on. Not going to make any changes...just going to keep as is. Would love to stay up for GFS, but tired and think I have strep

Looks like the NAM is putting the focus on this piece of energy which seems to be solely associated with convection. I agree with Dom, it can’t be tossed, but if that is not correct the NAM busts big. We would see a heavy band push over CT, RI, and SE MA

Bingo!!

This!!! Some out way too much stock into QPF forecasts.

Seems like synoptically all the ingredients which would favor developing convection remain closer to land. Best ulvl divergence is right where the convection currently is and looks like we should be seeing increasing ulvl divergence as well should help promote a northward blossoming of precip. I’m sure there may be other factors which enhance the development of convection of ocean, but ulvl seem to favor land

18z Euro still looks good for several inches along and east of 84 (but this is without looking at crazy details)

This certainly can still go either way. At least for myself, I went bullish b/c I was quite impressed with the signal for banding traversing a good part of CT. I know there had been some differences and changes to QPF, but analyzing the mid-levels and profiles I felt that despite the QPF showings the look presented is good and I don't see why precipitation shouldn't blossom and with that lift into the DGZ we would maximize things well. I do agree about the speed...this thing is hauling pretty good and that is something that can really screw the higher end of calls. At least with this though I think this is an event where you're probably at least 1/2'' (and maybe closer to 1''/HR) rates for a good part of the storm. This isn't one where you're dealing with crap growth and light rates for a few hours and end like that...it's going to be a pretty solid ordeal of snow from start to finish. There of course will be that deadly sharp-cutoff gradient somewhere which will yield a different type of hell.

The only way to tell if the mesos are handling this "shift" "cut-back" whatever you want to call it is to see how the convection is behaving and compare that to the mesos. I don't really think they'll handling the convection well. Looking at mesoanalysis and models it's tough to see convection fire off (at least a great deal of it) well east off the coast. This could be a case where mesos screw themselves.

GFS still looks good in bringing heavy banding back to central CT. Going to rip for a good 4-5 hours

If convection were to be overdone anywhere I would think it's certainly better it happened over land as opposed as to over the ocean

My winter forecasting still isn't all that great I always try to explain all my thoughts and reasoning behind my forecast (which I'll usually do in a war-and-piece long blog post). This helps to me to; 1) Understand the entire situation 2) Make sure I have covered all grounds (or as many as possible) on factors which can influence the forecast Plus it's also a great way to learn as if I say something incorrectly, interpret something wrong (hopefully) someone will call me out on it and I can correct the mistake for the future. The last and least important reason is nobody can say I ripped and read a forecast or copied anyone. I know a certain someone from school who I'm convinced rips and reads off others to make his own forecast