weatherwiz

Hopefully we'll get coastal storms to track but who knows...if this becomes a Nina with a monster SE ridge the storm track may be across MI lol

the Euro has really struggled this summer...especially in the tropical department (actually has been kinda brutal). but I think all models have struggled this summer. I seriously wonder if decline of flights due to COVID is playing a role and a rather significant role. I'm just curious though if the GFS cold bias has been fixed or muted a bit. Thankfully they have gotten some rain in WA/OR but CA...I just have no words. Looks like another hot stretch coming too with 80's and 90's across interior CA...even OAK could get into the 80's again.

The GFS would certainly argue that but the euro argues quite differently. Regardless, it does appear as if we'll see somewhat of a gradient pattern setup so that is certainly possible up north. Looks like a scenario where we sneak in some brief cold shots (at least into NNE). I just can't believe there is another sizable ridge building into the West lol...they can't catch a break.

Monday good drop some decent rain into southwestern CT. Probably going to be a huge cut-off between the heavier rain and virtually nothing with the HP to the north. Monday looks pretty chilly too and breezy

ahhh great point...I didn't even consider about low-dewpoint derecho. But I also do believe the distance criteria is probably standard throughout...although given how this went to the coast I would say this met criteria.

looks like there was a confirmed tornado in NY yesterday

I am a bit boggled though. I mean looking at mesoanalysis in the morning it was advertising as much as 150+ 3km CAPE advancing ahead of the front with 2-6km lapse rates nearing 8 C/KM and DCAPE values were 400-500 J...who knows...maybe they just focus on their HREF products and whatever probs they spit out lol

The last product I recall looking at from them was an MCD out in NY that said "a few severe gusts possible"

they did go to slight? Jeez a little late to the game. When I hopped on the computer at 6 AM and started looking I thought it was pretty obvious it was going to be a decent day...now I didn't expect it to be THAT crazy but I was shocked there wasn't an upgrade to slight.

It would be interesting to know if; 1) the SPC wanted watches but local offices said no 2) Local offices wanted a watch but SPC said no 3) Both sides said no

should add though the threat this time may be slightly north

going to fire up a thread in a little bit but Saturday looks pretty potent if enough CAPE can be generated. In fact, could be more intense than yesterday

low dews were a huge help too in this

I always forget but I am not sure if the distance requirement is the same for the classification of each type (serial, progressive, and hybrid). I think the criteria may be a bit more loose for serial derechos.

May be able to argue serial derecho here

Pretty impressive overlap of 3km CAPE/3km lapse rates. Couple that with a LLJ max moving overhead with a vigorous s/w moving through...viola!

Kinda surprised BDL reported 64 mph. Didn’t really seem like it. I guess though there might have been a very brief burst. Have to watch video and see if I can spot it

Would estimate 45-50 for gusts at BDL.

Just saw a CG!!!

Lightning!!!!

As mine gets further removed from radar it will “look like” it’s weakening

WOW

Gust front/shelf becoming visible!!!!