weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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18z NAM sounding near BDL tonight. Man crazy to think....posting soundings for winter wx now and in a month we'll probably be posting soundings for severe wx hahaha
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Nice deep DGZ and you can kinda picture where the best fronto will develop and traverse...it's really going to rip later
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Probably a better question for Will, Ryan, or Scott or the other more knowledgeable winter posters but I think that does apply but I'm not so sure if that's the case in a situation like this. I think the 30-50 miles NW is usually in association with like 850 or 700 lows and how the dynamics work with that. In this instance the heavy banding is really going to be tied into the zone of best frontogenesis so banding should match up with that pretty well.
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This is great
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NAM has really loved this idea. NAM usually does excellent with these ideas too. Hard to keep clothes on viewing that
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The NAM I feel has been pretty consistent with this...quite similar to the Euro. I was buying this pretty good which is why I went aggressive with my map yesterday. Been pretty impressied with the NAM soundings at BDL
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I remember that day. I think too that was the final snow threat to track. Then one month later...tornado outbreak! Seems like past years where we get April snow events (measurable) we get a big severe wx event in May or June. I think the same thing happens this year. Pretty volatile pattern setting up to our west...should that continue and we relax this pattern over us there may be a window. Hopefully for an EML -
Didn't some areas get snow around April 20, 2018? Or like April 15?
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I just saw that...couldn't believe my eyes. Seems like there is some room for that to happen too...I'm assuming one thing we'd like to see is that northern stream dig a little deeper?
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I don’t see much growing going on. Trees are more bare than my body right now
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I am bit confused by something. The SPC mentions capping across the Deep South. I’m not totally sure I see capping...at least capping to inhibit convection from forming too early or whatever. I do see capping which may inhibit vertical growth but too me it looks like a pretty dirty warm sector tomorrow with a rapidly weakening EML and poor llvl lapse rates. thoughts?
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I think tomorrow will be a big day but I am a little concerned with the lack of a stronger EML/CAP in the warm sector and there could be a quite a bit of cloud cover. I think the overall tornado potential could be mitigated a bit.
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both NAM and GFS pretty aggressive with elevated CAPE. I could see a severe threat getting perhaps into Fairfiled County CT. I even think a small tornado threat could develop across parts of PA/NJ. Could be wild across the mid-Atlantic Monday morning.
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ahhh gotcha...yeah I agree
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I was thinking of starting a thread for Monday but the only thing I don't like is the best forcing/dynamics kinda become a bit displaced and remain well west. But that doesn't mean we won't see isolated cells capable of some damage. Hell...GON gusted to like 61 the other day with that convection
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sounds like a high risk to me
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Anyone else have dreams of a high risk last night?
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Ehhh I’m not being serious lol. I don’t talk that way haha. I haven’t looked very closely at us but yeah inversion will limit wind potential unless we warm sector a bit better
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I think we see some damage on Monday
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yeah the damage report map will be quite lit up. Going to be a long 24-42 hour from tomorrow afternoon into early Monday morning.
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wow that's way too close for comfort. Glad he was alright.
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Are we in November or April
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Woah his first week was when the TOR moved through? yikes
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Lost in the severe wx outbreak Sunday is the blizzard that's going to happen in parts of IA, MN, and WI. Going to be some crazy intense snow...probably thundersnow too and blizzard conditions.
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April 2018 vibes!!!!! Expecting a MAJOR severe wx setup in May...bank on it. BIG ONE
