weatherwiz

The 6z GFS has 30 units of omega right into the DGZ at BDL. Tempting to go like 10-14'' off the GFS alone

ahhh gotcha...misinterpreted your post. I completely see what you're saying.

Might end up with like 1/2'' to an inch here this morning before all said and done

Everyone is just afraid of getting sued nowadays...that's what these decisions come down to. There are probably some school districts now who cancel school or delay school more times in one winter than I went through my entire life going to school.

I don't think today should have been that much of a surprise. Signal for these snow showers this morning had been there since Tuesday or so. But society is really becoming bleak...now you have schools letting out b/c of snow squalls and this morning there are delays b/c of a coating of snow. It has nothing to do with lack of info to the public...it has to do with the fact that people drive like idiots. 100 accidents are going to happen whether people knew about a coating of snow or not.

Trying to save him from meltdown territory

Sorry James, but you're mixing

I'm thinking the max totals within the banding are probably right around 8-10''. Think it will be tough to really do better than that unless a band completely rips over someone. Tough to figure out the placement. Still seems like convection is throwing off the NAM...it's VV distribution doesn't seem to make much sense as well as a few other things on the NAM

Coating of snow in Branford. Probably will up my map from 3-6'' to 4-8'' if I get time this afternoon...I was worried about mixing at the shore and only went 1-3'' there, but that might be a total bust on my part.

Seema to be a huge bias of the NAM in these types of setups and struggles mightily. I thought the GFS May have had a good handle with this and even the look on the euro has been intriguing.

The NAM has been extremely weird as of late (and by late for quite a while). One of my professors pointed it out. Part of the struggles with this system too is we’re not dealing with a consolidated piece of energy. There are numerous pieces of energy embedded within the flow and the models are struggling vastly. It’s certainly a good sign though that as we get closer to the 24-hr mark we’re nudging towards solutions of higher snow as opposed to less snow. one thing I’ve always liked are how tightly packed the thermal gradient is...that’s always a signal for not only solid banding, but a good indicator of where it can be anticipated.

Feeling much better about the initial 3-6” map but may even have to consider upping a bit if some of these trends continue tonight. A swath of 6-10” where banding occurs quite possible

I like it...extremely user friendly. I do hope though more products are added over time...such as 700 VV and fronto. The maps though can be tough to interpret (such as like 850 temps).

ahhh I got it. If you zoom in closer on a specific region. Never tried that before lol

Steve, How do you have values plotted like that on the snow map? I can't seem to figure it out.

Kraft should visit James next time instead of FL...and James is closer to Foxboro

Thoughts for CT. Think we'll see a decent band traverse the state. Worried about some taint along immediate shoreline. Rates maybe approaching 1-1.5'' per hour for a time. Heaviest 5-9 AM

I was hoping to gain some perspective in gaining further knowledge with wind forecasting using MOS and bufkit by hearing others experiences. Over the past several months having the opportunity to forecast for select locations across the country I've gained a tremendous amount of experience with weather all across the country and the challenges of forecasting. When I'm making wind forecasts (both wind direction, sustained winds, and potential gusts) I put alot of focus in bufkit, however, I'll also refer to MOS (more specifically for direction). Until I gain enough experience and confidence in the cities I forecast for I will at times check what the NWS has to say and compare to what I was thinking. I have noticed at times major differences between the NAM and GFS bufkit with regards to wind/gust potential (which stems down to I guess mixing and differences between the mixing algorithm (?) in each model and also sometimes a big difference between what I would interpret from bufkit and what the NWS has forecasted. For those who forecasts winds I would love to hear any experiences you have had with this and perhaps whats the best route to take when there are big differences.

can'tr rule out thunder either. soundings are pretty impressive with some weak instability

true

that may have been the same exact winter I am thinking of. Actually i think you're right

Question...this isn't storm related but I can't remember this for the life of me. I remember several...several winters back...this may even go back to Eastern US Wx days but there was one winter where there was alot of talk about confluence to the north...I think that was the term...but if I am thinking of this correctly having confluence just to our north is NOT good for us...it keeps storm track suppressed to our south?

Jesus...seeing when this was made and then realizing how long we've been at American Wx is insane...7 years now Can't believe how old I'm getting

If anyone is interested in an NFL pick-em league we have two leagues which members on this board can participate in. One of the leagues is free and has been an ongoing tradition of Eastern/American Wx for at least 10 years now. This league is done directly through this forum in the sports thread. The second league is entering its third season here on the boards and is a pay-league. He platform we've used in the past is yahoo, however, a different platform may be used this year. If you have any interest in participating in one or both of the leagues check out the following thread. The more participants, the more fun the league, and for the pay league, the more potential winnings! https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50203-nfl-pick-em-2017-2018/#comment-4596041