weatherwiz

both NAM and GFS pretty aggressive with elevated CAPE. I could see a severe threat getting perhaps into Fairfiled County CT. I even think a small tornado threat could develop across parts of PA/NJ. Could be wild across the mid-Atlantic Monday morning.

ahhh gotcha...yeah I agree

I was thinking of starting a thread for Monday but the only thing I don't like is the best forcing/dynamics kinda become a bit displaced and remain well west. But that doesn't mean we won't see isolated cells capable of some damage. Hell...GON gusted to like 61 the other day with that convection

sounds like a high risk to me

Anyone else have dreams of a high risk last night?

Ehhh I’m not being serious lol. I don’t talk that way haha. I haven’t looked very closely at us but yeah inversion will limit wind potential unless we warm sector a bit better

I think we see some damage on Monday

yeah the damage report map will be quite lit up. Going to be a long 24-42 hour from tomorrow afternoon into early Monday morning.

wow that's way too close for comfort. Glad he was alright.

Are we in November or April

Woah his first week was when the TOR moved through? yikes

Lost in the severe wx outbreak Sunday is the blizzard that's going to happen in parts of IA, MN, and WI. Going to be some crazy intense snow...probably thundersnow too and blizzard conditions.

April 2018 vibes!!!!! Expecting a MAJOR severe wx setup in May...bank on it. BIG ONE

For a second I thought you were talking about the severe wx

That's a great question. I don't think this will be any more volatile than that event but could be similar in magnitude, but displaced a bit farther west. Although one thing to keep in mind too is foliage...much more foliage now than January and that could produce more in the way of tree damage. I really don't think the full extent of the tornado potential will be known until late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

High risk is possible but I still think there are a few things that could negate a high risk...or negate a very significant event from unfolding. It's rather difficult to really portray what I'm trying to say b/c I think a significant event does unfold but I guess it's do we see numerous tornadoes with several long-tracked tornadoes or is it predominately a damaging wind event with several tornadoes? Obviously a large scale widespread damaging wind event can still result in a high risk verification and I think that is possible here. But two things that stand out to me are; 1) Weakening EML 2) Perhaps widespread convective debris 3) Not so favorable llvl lapse rates But given the forcing aloft, dynamics, and degree of moisture return a significant and long persisting squall line is quite likely...maybe derecho like. But the lack of an EML may prevent discrete supercells from being the overall game mode...perhaps many initial supercells but congealing into multiple lines. Could be war of updrafts

We could be setting the stage for a MAJOR severe wx setup in May again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yeah I think Thursday we see a line of strong t'storms move through. Was thinking of making a thread.

Can't believe we're a month away from severe wx season...insane

ONE MONTH TO GO!!!

Just saw that! Been off the past few days and haven't checked much weather...looks like a gusty low topped squall line!

Love it

Down to 59 days!

Only one more full month to go until we hit May...WOW. It's a comin'!!!!!!

We absolutely can start looking at 300= HR progs for convection. I like scrolling the mouse across the time on the SBCAPE charts...already started that