weatherwiz

6000 J of MUCAPE and OVER 1500 J OF HAIL CAPE...GOOD GOD

These lapse rates are WILD! I'm not sure I can recall having ever seen 9.5 C/KM. 8.5-9 yeah but 9.5...yeesh

Not sure why this never stood out until now, but the winter of 1979-1980 was a weak EL Nino...that was the last weak EL Nino (winter) until 2004-2005 (using Eric Webb's ensemble Oceanic Nino-Index Data). That's INSANE.

LET'S GET SEVERE WX...WE NEED SEVERE WX...THIs IS RIDICULOUS...RIDICULOUS I TELL YOU

Could see a few strong storms sneak into CT later on

maybe that's what Kraft was searching and FL came up

MARGINAL RISK!!!!!!!

That would be a super crazy cap anyways. But the convective scenarios out that way are crazy, crazy difficult. could see an MCS evolve tonight and move through there in the morning (potentially with very large hail and significant winds) then another potential complex tomorrow evening.

that's tomorrow in Kansas City

solar cycle influences is something I really need to explore more. I have hardly any understanding of this and am not even really sure what constitutes the difference between "low" and "high" solar activity. From what I gather it has to do with sunspot data? If so...what is the threshold between low and high?

Now THAT's an EML...holy crap. Those lapse rates are almost impossible lol

makes perfect sense. I always get confused with the shortening/lengthening of wave-lengths and the corresponding season but I never thought to try and look at it the way you explained...doing it this way completely explains it. I would be curious to see how MT is behaving the last several weeks...there used to be a great site for this and I think it was NCDC (or one of the agencies) used too but the person retired and it is no longer maintained. I'm going to try and find but I think University of Albany has products on MT.

We are not getting >20C 850's in here with the height configuration the way it is...both at 500 and 850. Even when the models "show this" you can still see it isn't going to happen. Until the field north of us weakens or something becomes displaced...we will not see much in terms of about climo for highs. As we move into July climo starts getting near the mid 80's or so...that isn't "heat". Anyways...even forget the pattern over North America...check it out on a global level. Rather unusual northern hemisphere summer configuration...correct me if I'm wrong but shouldn't wavelengths be lengthening as you enter summer? Globally (across the NH) wavelengths looks to be much shorter than you would think so we're seeing like an amplified type pattern.

That's not what that is saying

this is the most bizarre exchange ever...some of the weirdest posts I've seen

These last 3-4 pages are extremely weird, strange, bizarre, and just wtf

what if some of us do this already?

Should see a few storms work into western sections tomorrow evening.

Unfortunately

My hair got wet walking to lunch, my car, and every time I had to step outside

Sunday, June 2nd Great point and post

well that would make sense...when you add in the idea of the 50/50 low aspect but just the below-normal SST's alone I don't think would prevent heat into the region

Perhaps for the coastline but typically we're dealing with a more westerly flow when talking about high heat so not sure that cold pool would have any impact on the entire region...plus it really won't take much for the temps to moderate.

we're right in the beginning of our climo...our season is probably from like mid-June to mid-July before the curve starts dropping. Usually though we've had some events by now. Anyways though...looking ahead the pattern does hint at some solid potential...could become favorable for MCS's at some point.