weatherwiz

It's really all about mixing. That's what is a little bit bizarre IMO about this is how well some of the models are mixing. Here is 12z BAM bufkit for BDL. I'm still pretty impressed at these CAPE values given the shear. Also note that little area of drying aloft..but NAM has been pretty wonky with dry air aloft so not sure if that is accurate. Would have to investigate further

Yeah I think this setup is a bit different from some of our previous setups. Ingredients we lack in those are present this go around

there is definitely some room statewide for 50-60 mph gusts. Not sure that will pan out or if it will but this look is a bit concerning for CT...especially with potential for tornadoes. That''s n awful lot of llvl CAPE being modeled given these shear parameters. But even putting aide tornado potential...those CAPE values alone would be enough to transport down very strong winds...especially if the LLJ does max out over us. One underrated aspect going for us is this all happens during peak heating hours.

IDK..there does seem to be a window where we could get gusts 50-60+ mph across a large part of CT. NAM soundings...well at least 3km NAM actually don't really have much...if any...of an inversion which is actually quite bizarre I would think. But it looks like we maximize the LLJ during peak heating (yes it's clouds but that is important) and there looks to be potential for quite a bit of convection.

I've made several posts on the tornado threat but I don't think I've mentioned about tonight but there is potential overnight as well.

airplanes being tossed into the Atlantic

Getting a little concerned about the tornado potential in CT tomorrow...models are spitting out quite a bit of CAPE...especially within the lowest 3km. NAM bufkit soundings showing >300 J of 3km CAPE and over 1000 J of 6km CAPE...those are quite high given the amount of shear. I'll also add this...we may see llvl lapse rates steep enough to where these winds can certainly overperform...especially with any convective elements.

This situation that we're dealing with is why I am legit scared of a major hurricane impacting us. I mean think about it...our window of knowing like 100% certain that we will get nailed is like what...maybe 8-12 hours? Sure we can have an idea it will happen and make necessary preparations but there is still that uncertainty...by the time we really are certain it's too late to really act. It would be an absolute disaster, especially if you ever had to talk evacuations. How many people are really going to take something seriously when the main wording is "we still don't know"?

certainly don't disagree with that. Outside of perhaps some gusty winds and showers with could give some a nice little drink you guys out in the east are going to be shafted

Yeah I think at this juncture anyone looking for or thinking we'll see widespread heavy rainfall is misguided. There will be some heavy rain...just not as widespread as some are thinking. At this juncture the greatest concern is 1) Winds and power outage potential 2) Major coastal flooding 3) Risk for isolated tornadoes

6-10 threats

Maybe it's time for a specific thread about Isaias?

Looking decent across PA/NY but the question is initiation. I am leaning towards going to NE PA tomorrow

These last few pages are a disaster

oof you're not kidding. Not a good thing to see...especially for so early in the morning when you would expect overnight convection to really aid in things.

It's done a relatively good job fighting the shear. I think it looks much better than it did this morning. We'll see how much these flare ups of convection help too...especially moving into the overnight when convection typically seems to really increase. Looks like even some cloud tops now colder than -90C...impressive

Trying to look super close at the computer (so close I hit my nose on the screen) but satellite presentation really seems to be improving with an increase in convection. I like to call hot towers popcorn towers v/c they pop like popcorn

river tubing for the chickens

I wonder if there is an interaction at play with the s/w over the Great Lakes area...storm really seems to strengthen up around NJ...also looks like it may even keep the center perhaps a bit offshore...though that could be resolution driven?

Yes. This is in dangerous territory...discounting any type of solution or letting guard down just is not a good idea. Even though ensembles seem to have a rather solid agreement on what occurs that still needs to be taken with caution...only b/c the evolution over the next 24...even 48 hours holds the key. Too my untrained eye there does seem to be some better organization transpiring over the past few hours.

Model Intensity Guidance for the most part does not go above category 1...still though, given the area this is in I would not dismiss anything at this juncture. These next 24-hours are huge. I mean any sort of slight trend towards favorable conditions and this could take off in a heart beat...and we've seen that happen numerous times within this region.

I wonder if this will be upped a bit at 2:00...latest recon did find an area of pretty strong winds

I like the pants dying aspect

I just thought of something...we could see TOR's ripping through Sunday taking down trees and power poles and whatever if left standing is taken down by Isaias Tuesday/Wednesday.

sounds like the former Red Sox SS prospect