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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. That's a great question. I don't think this will be any more volatile than that event but could be similar in magnitude, but displaced a bit farther west. Although one thing to keep in mind too is foliage...much more foliage now than January and that could produce more in the way of tree damage. I really don't think the full extent of the tornado potential will be known until late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
  2. High risk is possible but I still think there are a few things that could negate a high risk...or negate a very significant event from unfolding. It's rather difficult to really portray what I'm trying to say b/c I think a significant event does unfold but I guess it's do we see numerous tornadoes with several long-tracked tornadoes or is it predominately a damaging wind event with several tornadoes? Obviously a large scale widespread damaging wind event can still result in a high risk verification and I think that is possible here. But two things that stand out to me are; 1) Weakening EML 2) Perhaps widespread convective debris 3) Not so favorable llvl lapse rates But given the forcing aloft, dynamics, and degree of moisture return a significant and long persisting squall line is quite likely...maybe derecho like. But the lack of an EML may prevent discrete supercells from being the overall game mode...perhaps many initial supercells but congealing into multiple lines. Could be war of updrafts
  3. yup! Hoping to get some. Going to head out to the car in a bit and wait for them to come
  4. Really nice batch of t'storms moving north through southern CT...should get hit here at home!!!
  5. All these stupid issues with the NWS products are just absolutely ridiculous. It's frustrating and an embarrassment.
  6. Severe T'storm watch southern 4 counties of CT until 4:00 EDT
  7. A few things that may really hinder overall potential is a weakening EML and not so great llvl lapse rates. However, given the degree of forcing and llvl moisture return there's certainly going to be severe wx and a quite a bit.
  8. Watching the snow up north later will be fun. Awesome dynamics going to be at work.
  9. Small hail with some of the stronger storms today I would think. Localized gusts 45-55 perhaps
  10. We could be setting the stage for a MAJOR severe wx setup in May again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  11. yeah there is certainly potential for a rather extensive widespread damaging wind event...tornado potential too. Going to be tough to resolve all the details
  12. Still looking good for a line of strong convection to move through early tomorrow afternoon. Embedded gusts 45-55 mph likely then becoming QUITE windy behind the front. ME going to get smoked too.
  13. Need to take the mind of Corona for a bit. A vigorous piece of shortwave energy diving southeast through Canada Thursday swings a cold front through the region late morning/early afternoon. The synoptic setup presents an intriguing spring-like look. The main sfc low projected to pass through central New England prevents the warm front from lifting through the region, meanwhile a weak area of high pressure northeast of ME helps keep colder air locked in place across northern New England with colder air being reinforced by the passage of the (strong) cold front. As the shortwave amplifies upon digging through southeast Canada rather impressive dynamics develop aloft with a 500mb jet streak exceeding 120-130 knots overnight Thursday. The result from this system...a significant spring snowstorm across ME with rain and an embedded line of t'storms moving through southern New England on Thursday. While the warm front never gets into southern New England, an airmass characterized by dewpoints climbing into the mid-to-upper 40's, temperatures into the 50's, and fairly steep mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/KM) will result in modest elevated instability. This combined with the strong dynamics aloft and forcing from the cold front will result in the development of a low topped squall line which may be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps some small hail. Meanwhile, in northern ME a several-plus hour thump of heavy, wet snow is likely given favorable thermal profile and strong lift through the DGZ. Combination of strong winds and heavy, wet snow may result in isolated-to-scattered power outages. Given the vigorous lift with this system and influx of warmer and more moist air into the CCB, there will likely be a band of extremely heavy snow (rates 1.5''-2''/hr) which may yield a narrow band of 12-20'' of snow. Fun day in store!
  14. yeah I think Thursday we see a line of strong t'storms move through. Was thinking of making a thread.
  15. Just saw that! Been off the past few days and haven't checked much weather...looks like a gusty low topped squall line!
  16. yeah I did make sure it was formatted to time as well...kinda bizarre b/c I think I have each cell formatted properly. I was getting an average of 17:48 from this set of times but when I just do it using 12-hr time format the average is correct.
  17. ughhh does anyone know how to format in Excel to return average time? I'm pretty sure I have it setup properly but (I'm using 24-hr time) when I input times such as (0:11, 0:16, 0:07) it is throwing off what the average should be. A fix seems to be just convert into 12-HR time but I know there is a way to do it but can't figure it out.
  18. Oh for sure...I'm certainly not looking to get rich overnight haha. More of a way to slowly learn more about investing and perhaps make a small profit over time. My friend wasn't looking to get rich either...he just got like super lucky with those options of Tesla...but he had enough money so he also bought shares of ADT when it was $18...he bought 714 shares and made $10K haha. My goal though is definitely more long-term investing, but at the same time if I can do some stuff with day trading and just go from there.
  19. A friend of mine got me hooked into Robinhood. I've only been doing this for maybe 6 weeks or so but it's been a ton of fun. My friend is killing it too...had a week where he made like $30,000 lol. I still don't fully understand trading/stocks but I guess he had these options but he acquired Tesla the day or two before it went up like $200+ in that one day...made out with $17,000. He also has more money than I do currently to play around with but my first purchase was a share of Microsoft when it was $167 and when it went up to over $180 I sold and made a little profit! My best was SPCE...bought 4 shares when it was $18 a share and a few days later it exploded to $40...then I sold at $32 just before it crashed down. Also made well with ADT. At some point soon there will be money to be made...should be able to get some excellent stocks low that should explode when this whole virus (hopefully) blows over.
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