weatherwiz

The AO forecast is beyond ridiculous...+6 to +7SD....yikes

As long as it is extremely active when I go out to OK at the end of May I will take 40's and 50's into July...I would make that trade.

It's going to relax in time to give us a crappy April and May. 40's and 50's with drizzle and overcast

I woke up to a coating (if you could call it that) of snow...was pouring like crazy though so perhaps had more than a coating before we flipped to rain. Driving on the highway basically into Wallingford was a disaster...I don't understand this state...highway completely dark with no lights. Very scary to drive in these conditions.

We are down to 79-days to go!!! Once the 0z GFS completes tonight..it will be into March (well technically still Feb 29 but 0z March 1st!!!) which means there would only be ONE full month left in the model world before May

Approaching mid-February! Is that pattern change still coming? Getting closer and closer to spring

There is growing consensus in the medium range for a long-duration winter weather event to impact at least a portion of New England. A rather significant trough is expected to dig into the western U.S. over the weekend and continue to amplify as it progresses through the central states. The response will be a strong ridge in the east. There are uncertainties, however, regarding the structure of the ridge across the Northeast as there are indications this will flatten out some. This is key as the trough and associated cold front approach the stage may be set for a long-duration overrunning event across New England; including the potential for a significant icing event.

I don't want to muck up the Feb thread anymore but going back to what Scott was saying earlier about the warming oceans this is pretty insane. Small sample size being used of course but here's a list of the three previous weak EL Nino's and three weak EL Nino's from the 1970's Here is moderate One thing to keep in mind though is not taking into account the phase of the PDO/AMO. IIRC the AMO was negative in the 1970's as was the PDO. AMO has been positive since the mid 1990's.

Who is Heat miser? Thought cold miser changed his name but they're new.

Today marks the first day of the SPC using PROBABILITIES for ALL SEVERE HAZARDS for the day 2 outlook!!!! Big step towards spring/summer folks. Very fitting too with severe wx in southern FL tomorrow

You know what's one thing I've never heard mention of this winter...is PDO. In fact, haven't heard much on PDO recently. I am out of the loop with it...although I am trying to get back into long-range aspects but is the PDO not really a tool used like it once was? I'm sure the PDO has had to have some type of influence on the pattern...

I've been reading on on some papers regarding ENSO (not necessarily newly published papers) but one thing I find intriguing regarding ENSO is how the ENSO event develops...and more specifically EL Ninio events. Obviously each event is different...different strengths, where the warmest anomalies are located, but this one paper I'm reading talks about HOW the event develops...I guess typically you would expect EL Nino's to develop as the easterlies weaken (or reverse in strong events) the WHWP spreads east...however, EL Nino events as of late have had a tendency to develop in the central Pacific.

WTF...NWS pages have been very odd lately

June 5, 2007. That was a fun day. It was a Tuesday. I was at work and this is where my memory is faded but I remember checking something...possibly on a phone but I didn't have a phone at the time but there were I think tornado warnings very nearby. I remember going home and getting onto the computer and there were supercells firing off...like classic supercells. The storm structures were amazing...never seen anything like it (up until that time). I think I may even have a picture of the satellite from that day. What I recall happening was llvl winds backed around the pre-frontal trough as it was coming through and the shear became highly favorable for supercells. Everything also started on the earlier side (late morning). I wonder if it held off a few hours longer if it would have been a bigger event.

That was pretty crazy.

WTH has been wrong with this page? It's been horrific the past several months https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products/bullform.all.php#bottom Thank God for this https://leonardo.met.tamu.edu/Weather_Interface/index.php

95 days to go!!! Will be doing a countdown post every Monday morning. Will also be incorporating one or two or five posts per week dedicated to a previous convective event.

that's a good point...but yikes thats a bit of money

I bet haha. Much easier and more fun

That sounds pretty exciting! I'm actually strongly considering pursuing masters in the fall...doing the online route at Mississippi State. Some of the classes offered look like a ton of fun

Well folks we are now under 100 days!!! 99 days to go!!!! 99 calendar days to go 99 calendar days to go you rip a date down then its one less day to go!!!!

As we make strides towards the second half of winter that means spring is right around the corner!!! This is usually a great opportunity to start shifting the brain towards convective forecasting. Great time to discuss previous events and start throwing out ideas on how the global pattern may evolve as we move through spring. This May is extra special as I am likely going to go tornado chasing out west for the first time ever!!!! But with that said...can't lose focus on our severe season as once the Plains season winds down we quickly ramp up. 102 Days to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am like 95% certain I'll be going out to OK at the end of May for two weeks!!!! With the gas mileage I get I figured probably $90 each way for gas (maybe another $60 to $90 for chasing...although probably not nearly that much...just going to stay within a certain radius of where we go). Tolls I guess are MUCH less than I anticipated. Was looking up motels and they are dirt cheap.

Oh good. I was worried that front could hang around there for some time.

hoping the fog won't be an issue at PWM tonight.