weatherwiz

I don't argue that...was more of just throwing out a thought more than anything.

I recall somewhat of a similar setup...forget there year but it was early 2010's. I think there was an EF-2 or even EF-3 around the Albany area which occurred with a supercell on the northern fringe of the warm front and they only had temperatures in the 60's. It was a crazy gradient with temps in PA near 90 and dews around 70. I remember chasing that day with my friend and we had gone into PA. Even though the temps were rather chilly the storm was drawing inflow from the southwest where instability was large

Might actually be a setup where you may want to be on the northern fringe of the warm front. That's where you'l not only maximize the shear but SR inflow may actually be from the warm sector so instability is still being utilized.

Remember like a month ago I said we'd be watching the Bruins chasing the Stanley Cup and tracking severe weather outbreak hahahahaha.

uhhhhhhh

I think it was still a slight...for moderate I think you needed 45% wind (or 30% hatched)...I think hail too but maybe it was 30% for hail and 10% for TOR. But given this is a day 2 outlook b/c the 30% wind is hatched that may have qualified for a moderate...I forget.

I should be able to "chase" tomorrow...by chasing I mean sit at BDL (that's my goal). Or maybe go towards SW CT depending on how it looks. But I don't think I'll be going out-of-state with all the quarantine guidelines in place...although NY and MA aren't on the list but still.

PIN PIN PIN PIN

I am not the *biggest* fan of this product...I think it places too much emphasis on shear (especially in high shear/low CAPE setups) but values of 30-45 are pretty damn impressive for up here

Didn't that happen 5/31/98? Anyways...not sure how it translates to here but I know out west in those scenarios tend to lead to significant events...and rapid fire too. such rapid WAA an destabilization just yields such vigorous upward vertical motion...which also can be a factor with increasing SRH.

Let's hope we can get at least one of these days to work out. I think historically when we seem to have these multiple days of potential we typically get one to work out.

I also wonder how the morning MCS potential influences things later in the day. Those are always a significant challenge...most times they completely kill potential, however, there are times they can enhance potential. 1) Will there be s/w subsidence behind it? As explained before, this can be good in that it clears out cloud debris quicker, however, it can also be bad b/c if that subsidence can't be overcome later, convection becomes suppressed. 2) MCSs can certainly leave behind residual boundaries and these can be a focal point for convection initiation and they can also locally enhance tornado potential...depending on how the storm motion is with respect to the boundary. 3)Timing of the MCS...this is actually rather huge...is it bright and early or late morning.

I would like to see stronger height falls. I do like though how models seem to track some steeper lapse rates into here...and to verify it's not a COD algorithm forecast soundings do exhibit a weak EML signature

oops I made my post in wrong thread. too lazy to delete and add here

Excellent post!

Finally...we've been waiting all summer for this but the potential exists on Thursday for a widespread...perhaps severe weather outbreak with widespread damaging winds and perhaps some tornadoes all possible. This is a rather delicate setup, however, all the ingredients are there. as always with this type of potential there are numerous caveats and the extent of the potential probably won't be known until early Thursday morning. 1) Morning MCS - there likely will be an ongoing MCS to begin the day (riding along an instability gradient). This will certainly be one feature which complicates the forecast as we would ave to deal with cloud debris and likely subsidence behind the departing MCS. Subsidence can be good as it can help clear junk out faster, however, if it is too strong it can inhibit development later on. 2) Lack of EML/steep lapse rates. lapse rates aren't horrific, but these setups tend to have their severe weather potential (magnitude) vastly increased when there is an EML involved. With that said, combination of temperatures well into the 80's...perhaps near 90 in spots and dewpoints perhaps into the 70's with high mixing ratios should contribute to near moderate instability (again...cloud debris will be a player here too). 3) Rather strong shortwave approaching will be accompanied by anomalously strong mid-level flow with a west-to-northwest MLJ exceeding 50-60 knots with a low-level jet exceeding 30-35 knots. One caveat here is the BEST dynamics may push off the coast before we can crank again in the afternoon. This should be extremely fun to track the next few days with plenty to work out. It is extremely important to keep expectations in check b/c this is by far a lock and lots have to come together...but all the ingredients are there. Saturday has potential to be quite active as well.

You know...may need one of those suckers (either in ATL or PAC) to do that.

Really starting to crank in the EPAC

If shear didn't look overly strong the GoM could be of interest moving into next weekend.

Josephine was never a threat to the eastern U.S. Outside of Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands just mostly fish fun.

It could be relatively quick. Depends on how much upwelling there was. Considering how quickly the system moved and the heat returning I think they rebound pretty quickly.

Looks like a window from 5-10 AM and then another maybe 4-8 PM. HRRR looks like it's going to be wild with wind

yeah it does appear as if it will stop ingesting dry air shortly...or very little. Where landfall happens will be big too...obviously the longer the eye stays over the water the greater the chance for strengthening but in this situation the longer it stays over water the closer to we towards sunset/evening when convection can start to increase.

starting to see some overshooting tots on satellite

the 18z HRRR has some nasty looking discrete cells moving through early tomorrow AM