weatherwiz

history always repeats

maybe we'll get a blizzard hurricane tornadic producing system in November

When they heard the news that the Seattle NHL expansion team was named the Seattle Kraken they left the state

There is a beautiful TCU outside...gorgeous. Almost kinda looks like it could be a developing shower or t'storm

We can all just hope and pray that the phase 3 trials by Moderna/Oxford will yield great success and hopefully in the meantime additional treatments will have been found. Was reading something about some treatments in the works to help with antibody response. There is just no way the world can continue to operate the way we are. But the problem is as soon as you open up...boom. Something is going to have to give. Somehow...CT continues to just have this under control. It's gotta be pushing 4-5...maybe 6 weeks now where the daily percent of positive tests has been under one. There have only been a handful of days where it was just over 1. but bars/clubs can't open b/c the fear numbers will rise. Hospitalizations have been up/down...they did get as low as 53 I think but are just above 60 now. I know a few teachers...some have kids and they are petrified about going back to school. One of my friends who is around 30 is a teacher (no kids) but she has underlying health issues and lives with her grandfather and takes care of him who also has issues. I can't even imagine what parents/teachers are going through. There are huge arguments for both sides of the spectrum and the worst part is how the hell do you know which side is correct?

Has anyone used the ISU site for bufkit before? the PSU site has been having all kinda of issues. Was trying to load profiles into bufget from the ISU site, however, doesn't seem to work. https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html

Friday looks like we could see quite a few downpours and thunderstorms

Looks like a window from 5-10 AM and then another maybe 4-8 PM. HRRR looks like it's going to be wild with wind

yeah it does appear as if it will stop ingesting dry air shortly...or very little. Where landfall happens will be big too...obviously the longer the eye stays over the water the greater the chance for strengthening but in this situation the longer it stays over water the closer to we towards sunset/evening when convection can start to increase.

starting to see some overshooting tots on satellite

the 18z HRRR has some nasty looking discrete cells moving through early tomorrow AM

If it did get higher than a cat 1 we would be in deep trouble But I doubt so too...I'm thinking maybe 80-85 mph?

crap...you're right. well I'm kinda glad about that

I'm still bit nervous for further strengthening...it's in an area where if it strengthens it could take off. Obviously there is no model support for that but given how it's holding it's own as the shear weakens and it becomes more favorably aligned with the shear...who knows what could happen.

IR doesn't look very good but visible seems to be looking better...hmmm

they're just waiting for the real playoffs to start

Get to watch the Bruins tomorrow and trees flying through the air.

the wind has blown you out of CT

FWIW, the 12z HRRR was just as impressive with winds for tomorrow. I know it's a bit far out of the HRRR range but still noteworthy. 18z HRRR should start rolling within the day

I was actually thinking about that. But, to save people's I elected not to say.

There has been another decent burst of convection flaring up the past few hours. Looks like its trying to wrap around the eye but still no luck. See what happens over the next 6-8 hours.

I'm expecting a slight risk here when the new day 2 comes out!!!

Looks like surface temperatures should push close to...perhaps even a few ticks above 80 with sfc dews climbing into the 70's. Those two alone are going to yield llvl lapse rates a bit steeper than we would usually see in this type of environment and not too beat this dead horse but much of this happening during peak heating hours is pretty huge.

Looks like the RPM (12z run anyways) has coastal CT sustained 40-50+ knots?

It's really all about mixing. That's what is a little bit bizarre IMO about this is how well some of the models are mixing. Here is 12z BAM bufkit for BDL. I'm still pretty impressed at these CAPE values given the shear. Also note that little area of drying aloft..but NAM has been pretty wonky with dry air aloft so not sure if that is accurate. Would have to investigate further