weatherwiz

Here is something I've never fully understood (although I am not sure why...probably overthinking) but it has to do with wave patterns...I see this mentioned quite a bit on twitter from guys like HM and Mike Ventrice...they'll say like wavenumber pattern 2 or 1 or 3...is that just referring to how many I guess trough axis are occurring within the hemispheric flow? anyways...isn't it a bit unusual to see so many troughs within the hemispheric configuration this time of year? That configuration across the far north latitudes with the omega block is quite interesting too. That's extensive ridging from the GoA to Santa's fanny

gotcha. Perhaps the synoptic pattern is similar and that's what he meant and the weenies just took that as correlating to a tornado outbreak lol.

hmmm that sounds like it could have marketing potential

WE NEED SEVERE WX THIS WEEKEND

that's just absolutely ridiculous....did he really say that tornado specifically? I didn't see his post, but I saw reference to it. Someone had said that he was referencing June of 53 and the weenies took that out of context.

Agreed. I have an intern I'm working with and one thing I'm doing is having him practice technical discussions...and right now with severe wx so I'm doing an example as well and basically what you just said is how I finished my discussion lol. Why it totally can't be ruled out either is that plume of steep lapse rates which works in. Hey...sometimes are best severe wx events aren't even modeled well until like 12 hours out so maybe this will work

If we can slow down the fropa for Saturday it has some solid potential but I don't really see any room for that to happen. Need to slow it down quite a bit too.

half a can of that and Kevin is getting stomach acid on will's brakes again

This weekend's stuff is crap. Looks like cold front comes through too early Saturday to really maximize heating potential and while the energy is quite vigorous Sunday lots of limiting factors which will yield any activity likely more isolated in nature. Maybe a little more concentrated where orographic lifting may play a role?

The models have struggled big time in the medium range...but yeah, taken at face value they do go away, however, if we're talking face value the 588 height contour still remains just off to our south...tough to get big heat in where with that south...and given the flow aloft if they get a ton of convection out west cloud debris could be a factor at times. This is a much different configuration then what we saw last summer.

I don't think anyone is saying no humidity (though that term is quite subjective so it's better to use values)...we'll certainly see dews ranging 60-70 and then there will be times some areas sneak into the lower 70's...but we aren't seeing prolonged periods where the dews are 70+ like last summer.

As long as we continue to see below-average heights north (and there are no signs of this eroding) we are not going to see high heat...or at least anything prolonged (a day or two here and there perhaps) but as long as we have these below-average heights north and ridging across the south the jet is going to be unseasonably strong and more zonal making it difficult to get the heights into our area that we need for big heat.

Great way to put it. In terms of temperatures and I guess humidity it won't be anything special...or anything unusual for July. We'll probably have our crappy days where we get a stalled out front or warm front lifting nearby and it's cloudy with downpours but muggy. The days...like we will have today will feature temps in the mid-to-upper 80's with the typical torch spots poking a 90. Maybe we get a few days where temps push in the 90-92 range but I don't really see much for anything hotter than that. It just would be nice if we could get convectively active.

Very tough...heck...maybe even anywhere in the country. Only examples I can think of here are 10/3/79 and I think the long tracked tornado from around Waterbury into Tolland County in 1962(?) which was rated F3...I don’t recall if that had an EML. i night be way off on that year. Ughhh I used to know these dates right off the bat

Not sure where these have been coming from...and I’ve seen others say the same but...no, no, no, no, no, no. Those are ridiculous assertions. This isn’t even remotely close

Actually yeah for Saturday there does seem to be some hints of an EML plume out across PA. One thing I have noticed though (at least here in the Northeast) is these point-and-click soundings have been generating excessively high dewpoints which of course with lapse rates > 7 and Td's well into the 70's is going to spit out crazy CAPE.

I am not ok but on second thought...for today they do but not tomorrow.

Fun for Chicago tomorrow. NAM has upper 70's and GFS 90

Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case. Although...there may be a pocket of fairly decent lapse rates as it's a pretty strong cold pool

you know what I think happens...I think a pre-frontral trough (or some type of boundary) pushes through super early in the day and that results in the llvl wind shift I had mentioned along with the drier air working on. Certainly agree...things could change. Actually...I think this could be a good setup out in E. MA

Really...looked more like we were dealing with predominately W to NW flow from sfc through the troposphere. Overall I wasn't totally impressed with the setup outside of some isolated activity but seems like we also rapidly dry out the llvls through the day Sunday

Excellent summation of things really. I don't even know what this thread is about anymore or what the discussion even is. We are going to see typical summer weather now...what's that? Areas which are favorable/known to be a few ticks warmer than surrounding areas will be around 90 (88-92...depending on factors like cloud cover, strength of mixing, maybe wind direction). Areas along the coast...they'll have their typical summer weather...a few degrees cooler than everyone b/c of..well obvious reasons. Higher elevation areas will be cooler...again for obvious reasons. Technically (IMO anyways) if you have higher elevation areas...above 1K getting close to 90...that's a torch airmass...when you factor in lapse rate and what 90 at 1K means for areas at like 200 or whatever feet. But what we can summarize is we are finally entering a more summer-like pattern

wait what? I haven't been excited for a severe weather setup all summer. There is a difference between monitoring for convection and severe wx. Given the strength of the s/w Sunday there probably will be some convection but I don't think anything crazy.

I’m not very sold on Sunday. Not a fan of the weak llvl flow and westerly llvl + sfc flow. Not saying we won’t see anything but would think more isolated

ahhh good point.