weatherwiz

It certainly is weak...no doubt. Its just we’ve been screwed so many times in the past with these and how they’re timed. You see clearing behind them and get all excited meanwhile your dews are slowly dropping and everything goes to hell. Not feeling good for CT...maybe SE

Looks like dews have dropped into the lower 60’s behind the pre-frontal

There is still quite a bit of MLCIN and the pre-frontal trough is slowly approaching...even seeing some precip across N CT. I think the threat is kinda cooked here. may be better in RI/ E MA actually...better time for recovery.

Most models showed at least some areas of showers and t’storms moving through. Plus other signals included; a decent surge of elevated CAPE/theta-e with the approaching warm front

I thought last night was kinda hinted well on the models.

I wonder if today would be a case where you don’t want a ton of heating. If sfc winds and llvl winds become west with the passage of the pre-frontal maximum mixing would promote drying and lowering dews.

I think tomorrow is going to be pretty nasty...especially Eastern MA into RI.

Meh not very impressed. Looks like the pre-frontal is already pretty close. HRRR has it move through around 2 PM. Might even be a bit earlier than that

I do like how the extended HRRR (whatever you want to call it) looks good though. I’ve found that to be pretty solid

I still think the pre-frontal is going to screw us. Maybe SE CT would be able to capitalize a bit better. Maybe a RI special coming

I think tomorrow is going to be garbage. 1) the pre-frontal trough moves through too early...you can see the wind shift occur between 11-1 PM. This will spark off some activity, but we won't have realized maximum instability. Now if you look behind the wind shift...you'll notice temperatures continue to increase and warm well into the 80's...this is a product of sun (duh!) and the flow becoming more westerly. 2) If the cold front was lagging much farther behind the pre-frontal this would allow some time for winds to become more SW...the significance of this is moisture/Td's. As I mentioned...the W flow will decrease dews. Sunday could be really fun...especially eastern SNE where stronger moisture convergence will reside

What an odd page of posts...very odd and strange posts

I think it could get cut south quite a bit. I don't think we see any higher probabilities either.

In my posts where I've talked about the veered wind shear...I was not referencing that in terms of bulk shear. My point when mentioning the W sfc winds and W llvl winds solely had to do with how they can impact moisture and convergence. My worry was a more W flow in these levels would promote a drying and limiting convergence. If we were to talk shear then of course you're now limited with directional component...especially if the mlvl flow is also more W...now of course...if you have a W flow at the sfc and a NW or NNW flow aloft you're still generating bulk shear/directional shear. I was only referencing moisture/convergence impacts.

There does seem to be some room for lower 90's moving into next weekend but yeah...it's brief and we get lower heights to work back in and we're back to seasonable temperatures.

Sunday actually looks a bit more impressive now. Some pretty beefy CAPE values showing up and with that cold pool that could be pretty fun

I guess it's nice to at least have something to track. Thought I can't believe 1953 was being thrown around

I like the W/NW flow aloft...for the obvious reasons but I didn’t really like seeing the sfc flow be more W. Seems like the 18z NAM not only slowed down things a bit but now have more of a SW flow at the sfc. With these steep lapse rates continuing to be shown and the NW flow aloft hopefully everything else can come together

I am just not overly impressed with this...although granted it is our "best potential" of the season so far. I'm not even sure we see widespread or even scattered convection...perhaps more isolated. As stated in the other thread, there are concerns over timing. Even on the slower GFS there are still concerns and those concerns due with the potential for a more westerly component to the llvl and sfc flow...this (along with strong mixing) would not only promote drier air mixing down, but limit convergence. Maybe eastern MA has a better shot...and for more in the way of scattered convection as there may be some stronger moisture convergence. Another issue is that potential MCS moving through NNE overnight...suppose that verifies...we could see some mean subsidence on the backside of that and this could also result in a more W component. We'll see what happens but right now not excited...am only interested b/c we've had nothing else

ahhhh ok I see. the bolded makes perfect sense and actually just sort of clears up what my confusion was about...along with the opening sentence. As I thought I was looking at it the wrong way and making it way more confusing. Forget that post lol

OHHHHH!!!! So the GFS is spitting out dews in the lower 80's across parts IA Saturday So what do you get when you combine LOW 80's dews with near upper 80's temps and lapse rates over 7.5 C/KM I want to find one where the lapse rate may exceed 8 EDIT...doesn't exist

Here is something I've never fully understood (although I am not sure why...probably overthinking) but it has to do with wave patterns...I see this mentioned quite a bit on twitter from guys like HM and Mike Ventrice...they'll say like wavenumber pattern 2 or 1 or 3...is that just referring to how many I guess trough axis are occurring within the hemispheric flow? anyways...isn't it a bit unusual to see so many troughs within the hemispheric configuration this time of year? That configuration across the far north latitudes with the omega block is quite interesting too. That's extensive ridging from the GoA to Santa's fanny

gotcha. Perhaps the synoptic pattern is similar and that's what he meant and the weenies just took that as correlating to a tornado outbreak lol.