A decent inverted-V look too on some soundings perhaps helping with any potential for isolated microbursts.
I do think though there may be a bit of a higher severe threat up in ME if enough destabilization can occur...even back into parts of northern VT/northern NH.
There should be enough instability to where any activity should at least work towards the coast. The timing though would certainly provide a solid light show.
maybe the greatest coverage is a bit north of us but with decent height falls, no cap, enough instability, and marginal shear we should see more than just widely scattered. Should be a nice light show anyways
Should see numerous t'storms tomorrow with torrential downpours and vivid lightning. A few storms may produce some damaging wind gusts which knock down some dead trees or limbs
The only good news about having cooler than average SST's is we don't have to have James alarm us that hurricanes will have excess fuel to thrive on as tropical systems ride into SNE late this summer. If the theme of cooler than average SST's continue into winter then we don't have to hear about how the SST's will yield stronger winter storms.
I did tweet back (I was respectful) but yeah I was going to mention something about him calling himself "correct" for his area he drew up...it really wasn't that difficult.
Kevin is right...hype does sell and it sucks. It totally bothers me b/c the same people who cry and complain that meteorologists hype are the same people that follow the ones that hype...it's an addiction this society has.
I came so close to replying back to him.
I have great respect for him, but what he did this week was completely irresponsible and unwarranted. All he did was use the fact that the placement of two fronts and a parent low as an analog. He of all people should know it doesn't work that way.
The core of the cold pool is sliding into MA now. around 1000 J/KG of MLCAPE, 125-300 J/KG of 3km CAPE, and 200-500 J/KG of Hail CAPE. Also 300-400 J/KG of DCAPE. Scattered t'storms should continue to develop over the next few hours.
I don't know if we'll see a watch. Not sure if we'll see widespread enough large hail or damaging wind reports but I would think there should be a quite a bit of small hail and gusty winds. Just wish we had a bit more sfc heating.
There is plenty of sfc CAPE available but MLCAPE is a much different story (except eastern areas). Llvl moisture overall isn’t that impressive. 850 dews under 10C. Still a bit of MLCIN too.