weatherwiz

Absolutely ridiculous. So extra heat is being added from something that isn't established yet and is only in the developing states?

Correct, I should have been a bit more clear with this aspect

was looking at vorticity rolling through/shear/instability...but mostly focusing on the shortwave rolling through as the driver for anything. If that shortwave is nothing or relatively weak then yeah we won't see much of anything

Actually I kind of like where that has the 30% area for D3. Looks like the instability gradient (talking about gradient between moderate and extreme instability) may be eastern NY into western New England. Something to watch because any development, particularly any cluster or complex, is going to ride that

Not bad for a D3

True, height falls are relatively meager. Certainly one of the negatives to consider

Looks like right along the theta-e axis. What happens tomorrow night could end up setting the stage for Wednesday too, particularly when it comes to any potential remnant outflow boundaries. We'll have to see how things time with shortwave energy and even shortwave strength but Wednesday has potential to be a higher-end severe day I think

Wednesday looks pretty solid

12z HRRR catching on to the 0z RRFS?

What winds can the radomes withstand before worrying about damage risk?

This thing is like Pac man, just swallowing whatever is in its path (luckily probably not much). Thing seems to have a nasty RIJ

Looks like its about to split

It's like a massive supercell MCS Those storm tops may be exceeding 70,000 feet lol

Holy shit

Pretty much what dendrite said. Also, add in it’s extremely difficult for us to be directly centered under the ridge so more often than not we’re on the periphery so that opens up the door for high cloud/convective debris. Also, it gets difficult to achieve higher end temps when dewpoints start pushing towards and into the 70’s

Good morning South Dakota

IMO, its much more difficult in these parts versus the PAC NW.

Just imagine the masterpiece of a symphony Beethoven could create based on the unison of hums from all of the A/C's that will be cranking full-throttle and non-stop for the next foreseeable future.

We kick off the month of July with a trough digging into the western United States and a large ridge of high pressure building into the midwestern states (I refuse to call this a heat ridge...another stupid, hyped up term) resulting in high heat and humidity building into the eastern third of the country. Here in the Northeast, we will find ourselves on the northern or northeastern periphery of the upper-level ridge. This will place us in a favor position for the advection of higher heat/humidity in the lower-levels while favoring a northwestern flow in the mid-to-upper levels. This pattern can be favorable for MCS propagation into the Northeast region as well as the advection of elevated mixed-layer plumes. In terms of severe weather potential, computer forecast models hint at some shortwave energy rounding the northern periphery of the ridge into the Northeast (uncertainty as to exactly where). With temperatures well into the 90's and dewpoints well into the upper 60's to 70's under the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, the potential exists for moderate-to-extreme instability to develop with potential for 2500-4000 J/KG of MLCAPE with potential for 30-40+ knots of bulk shear. Should a shortwave work into this environment the potential would exist for numerous thunderstorms, including the potential for some of these to be severe with potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even the potential for tornadoes if enough directional shear is present. The high heat and humidity has finally arrived

Pablo Sandoval ran faster than the board has this week

ahh yes...yeah the new site is much better. Wish it was available mobile (unless it is now)

Do you use it on pc or mobile? cod is definitely not user friendly mobile

Really? I use it all the time and haven't had any issues...outside of some instances where the NAM gets "stuck"

tickle me elmo

I do think region wide we'll be upper 80's to lower 90's and maybe even closer to 95 in the torch spots, but the most interesting aspect about the pattern is we could end up in a favorable position with respect to the ridge axis for EML advection and MCS propagation from the Great Lakes/southeast Canada!