weatherwiz

No, it wasn't that. It was yellow (or like a golden brown) with the light orange body or brownish orange. But it was crawling at me...I had no choice.

The only light I keep on is just outside the back door but its not particularly bright and inside a cove (not sure what its technically called but its an overhang which connects the house with the garage.

hmmm could be those. what kind is the "common yellow house spider"?

Yeah I won't bother them if they're outside, but inside that is a different problem . But yeah the number I've seen outside, especially larger spiders is very noticeable. Actually, I've grown to not care as much if they are inside anymore but its the crawling that creeps me out. I probably should have gotten this addressed when I was a kid...no clue where it started or what sparked it but this fear of spiders is an awful thing...if I see one near me it elicits this intense response in my body. I hate it.

Is that stuff safe for dogs/cats?

I've also noticed an alarming uptick in wolf spiders outside. I hope those suckers don't manage to sneak inside houses. But I think one may have. A few weeks ago when I was lying in bed watching videos on my phone, a black spider raced out from under the covers across the bed. I jumped out of bed and killed it quickly so I didn't have a chance to see what kind of spider it was. It may have just been a jumping spider. When I drained the pool last week, the number of spiders (and some big ones) that crawled onto the pool to get away from the water was very disturbing.

I guess its spider season. My girlfriend said she killed a big yellow one that was crawling on a door yesterday, then one last night that dropped from the ceiling, and I just had one run across my desk ughhhhhhh. There must be a nest and I'm still convinced there is a nest in my car since i had 3 spiders crawl on me while driving in the span of 10 days. Frustrating

1" of rain and EF1 TOR's

TDS northeast of Rockland

There is a very weird obsession with the HREF...ever since it nailed some event a few years back (forgot what it was). But that's what forecasting is evolving into...pick a model and output source that displays beautiful visuals and construct what its showing into a "forecast".

I think the HREF is kind of meh overall. I mean there are times it does great but there are many times it way overdoes things

Once we start to get something a bit more organized we should get a better idea. The "center" has been jumping like crazy over the last day, particularly since last evening. Once concern I have though is potential for RI if this 1) gets its act together quickly and 2) If it tracks within the zone of higher OHC Doesn't mean anything for us but I would be watching extremely closely anywhere from the northeast Florida coast up to coastal NC.

Yes, you're right...I got my invests mixed up

Also AL93 is what would need to develop for any EC interest and it looks like AL94 will be the one

If anything came up the coast it would transition to a cold core system so quickly. It would lose its tropical characteristics upon getting off the Carolina coast. "Worst case" scenario is some much needed rain and probably 30-40 mph gusts, mostly at the coast. And that is even fantasy

I'm intrigued as well. Certainly something to watch, but like you said, all speculation at this point until we get something to really develop. Lots of factors shall influence that these next few days. I just hope nobody is really expecting a cat 3 here I mean extratropical, subtropical, etc. storms can certainly still be noteworthy so don't want to take away from that aspect.

And Gabrielle has taken off. RI and up to 120 mph

Doubt it would be a cane up here, waters are pretty chilly but maybe a glorified Nor'easter with gusty winds and some heavy rain and of course some high surf.

Crazy how much cooler it feels once the sun goes behind the trees. That’s what separates this from true summer. Even when the sun goes behind trees or isn’t beating on you, it’s still hot.

Beautiful day to sit outside with an IPA and watch college football

Agreed on that, but I think exactly how December progresses and evolves will play a larger factor in the remaining months. So December essentially sets up the rest of the way...but then of course you start introducing other wild cards that will come into play.

Also keep in mind 1.2 is the most volatile region so when assessing changes in SST structure you must factor in what the contributions are to that.

I don't see ENSO being much of a factor in the overall regime this winter, or if anything, any influences of ENSO would be minimal for us. Given this, IMO, the biggest driver for the winter pattern across North America is going to be totally dominated by the PDO and secondly by short-term influences on the NP/PNA. At least in terms of SST structure, we are in a rather remarkable negative PDO right now and to the point of where you don't even have the strip of below average SSTs along the west coast of North America from the PAC NW into the Gulf of Alaska. Now, this could be a great thing and it could be a very bad thing. One big wild card I think will have to do with the Aleutian Low. Despite the -PDO last winter the Aleutian Low was relatively strong (though displaced towards the dateline) and that that didn't help us at all. One worry I have though is we are going to continue with the theme of very fast flow alot and something more along the lines of zonal (gradient). This would yield another super challenging short and medium range forecasting with models struggling with shortwaves, shortwave interactions, and storm evolution. A counter would be getting substantial help from the Arctic domain but my worry is much of our source region is going to be flooded with milder (with respect to climo) temperatures so even if we get a "good look Arctic" the delivery of "colder" temperatures is crap.

Its a solid shortwave (though becoming more of an open wave) with decent dynamics and forcing. This certainly isn't going to provide relief region wide but some folks will get lucky and get some rain.

There will be showers and thunderstorms around Tuesday, could even see an axis of some heavier rain up north (or in the vicinity of the warm front).