weatherwiz

Maybe Amherst college has a great viewing spot?

Probably going to be too far north. Was thinking Amherst early morning but it’s tough to find a good spot. I found a great spot last year at the school but when I went there with my friend a few months ago I couldn’t find the spot

Ask and you shall receive

Might have been a brief TDS?

If I was with someone I would definitely do that lol. Otherwise boring alone

Elected to do Turners Fall airport based in radar evolution

I think I am going to go into southwest New Hampshire (Walpole area where my friend works). Thinking there is potential sfc winds may end up a bit more backed up in that area. But I am going to have to leave like now. Its about a 90 minute hike there

Thanks! I'm not too worried about being able to move easily. Once I pick a spot and location I don't really want to have to deal with moving and trying to get somewhere or follow the storm.

Does anyone know of any really good viewing spots in this area? Debating on what to do but time is a wasting. The area I would go in southwest New Hampshire would definitely be best but my worry is the best stuff will go from Berkshire through northern Mass, just south of the VT/NH border.

I am debating on going into southwest New Hampshire.

12z NAM has a pocket of 1500-2000+ J of MLCape across western Mass into northwest CT. That would be noteworthy given the shear.

Debating on planning to go to BDL later and shoot north up 91

We're going to need to get rid of this smoke so we can heat sufficiently and steepen those llvl lapse rates...that is going to be key today. But I think this setup is getting played up a bit too much (Eversource sending out messaging). It's a narrow corridor for severe potential and that is going to be highly dependent on if we can get heating to steepen those lapse rates up. But as cells develop and rapidly organize into a line updrafts are going to start to struggle (this is where the poor mlvl lapse rates will hurt and lack of stronger s/w forcing) and choke each other off. I think we may see two or maybe three separate swaths where wind damage (maybe a tornado) is most concentrated. First area within Berkshire County through central Mass, another within New Hampshire, and maybe a 3rd into southern Litchfield/northern Fairfield County Connecticut. Once you get to 95 this is where we see a transition to heavy rain/thunder with gusty winds along the outflow and localized damaging wind gust.

Checking out some soundings on the 0z NAM and don't see the funky profile in the lowest km anymore...so its much steeper with the llvl lapse rates. Hell this even looks better in terms of tornado risk, especially early on when storms are discrete and organizing into a line.

It will be interesting to see how tomorrow pans out. I don't think we're looking at widespread severe weather but maybe we see something along the line of a concentrated swath of wind damage reports focused where any bowing segments occur. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates, I think if we had better and stronger shortwave forcing that could yield greater potential for a swath of wind damage across the region. The greatest severe weather potential may also be early on, which would favor far western sections as activity develops. LFC heights aren't too bad, so if parcels can get to the LFC easily the initial storms could be potent with risk for a tornado. But I could see this evolving more into a torrential rain/gusty wind on the leading edge ordeal very quickly. Probably Berkshire County, Litchfield County, Fairfield County into western Hartford/Hamden/Hampshire counties for best severe potential...which matches up well with where the slight risk is.

?

One big difference tomorrow between the NAM and GFS is the difference in lapse rate in the lowest km. This could be the difference in getting damaging wind gusts that are more scattered/concentrated versus localized.

If my gustnado doesn't count a waterspout doesn't count

What will hold tornado potential back tomorrow is storm mode. That's a large helicity field across the region with some decent turning in the lower levels.

Could be some nasty storms tomorrow for sure if we get enough heating.

Kind of what I'm thinking but until we actually get a center to pop this is all kind of minute anyways but these shifts south with the wave are noteworthy. I wonder if the modeled size being so small is a factor in this too

GFS was really insistent on the remnants bringing heavy rain/flash flooding into AZ/NM and western TX...oops

Still early in the run but 12z GFS WAYYYY south with the invest moving across the southern Tropical Atlantic...that is a sizable shift south

Yeah at this juncture I have doubts as well, however, just enough in place to keep me a bit intrigued. Once this is able to develop and organize and where we see the center we'll have a substantially better idea of what to expect long-term.

One big change to notice as well is how much farther south this is being modeled. Pretty substantial really. If that front doesn't capture the system there would be a path towards the coast.