weatherwiz

Great stuff. I am curious as to what influence the northern Pacific will have on the Arctic domain this winter. Obviously the are backing off the vast -PDO regime we had been in, with help to the developing EL Nino but we are in unique territory regarding the state of the PDO. This is a situation where I don't think a raw numerical values tells the entire story here. Clearly we're heading towards more in the way of a +PDO structure but those absurdly warm anomalies from Japan across the north Pacific IMO still reflect which is by large a -PDO. Based on how the EL Nino has developed, combined with the state of the Pacific, my anticipation would be an significantly far north sub tropical jet this winter and once that is very juiced. Now, that is something that could bode well for us if the cards align but we'd also be talking about a raging jet and it may be very difficult to get surges of Arctic air to displace southwards. I would have to think we would need to see a -NAO/AO of historic territory to give any shot. Even if we did get a -NAO during the winter, it may not be much help and if anything could increase potential for warmth if its structured in a way where the above average heights connect with the jet and propels it even further north.

Can't believe I've missed 11 pages of this thread. So much of Ray's writings I have to catch up on. I was really hoping to have been able to divulge deeper into seasonal stuff by this winter but not the case. Hopefully I can for next winter.

yeah I don't get what all that hype and "doomsday" view on that was all about. At least IMO, a part of me believes too its part of the decline of the +AMO regime as we strive towards a -AMO regime.

I've never watched his severe coverage videos so I have no opinion on them. From what I've heard they're pretty great but I've seen a few of his YouTube videos and shorts that pop up when I'm browsing and they are not particularly good. Not sure if he is a met or not but some of what he says doesn't make sense or is inaccurate. Can't remember the exact details of some instances off the top of my head b/c they were just too cringe worthy.

The upper-level pattern has done wonders to really warm the waters too in recent weeks. +28C to +29C up to the NC/VA border Speaking of water temperatures, where all the people freaking out about that "cold blob" in the north Atlantic that is no longer really there

Big Y parking lot

almost took clothes off

Just got a brief downpour!

I think I'm ready for fall...more so because I'm pumped NFL season starts Wednesday and NHL in 3.5 weeks. Once you get these cloudy days and it makes the earlier sunsets super apparent and dealing with the darker earlier mornings that's a sign to wave the white flag on summer and start moving onto the next season.

probably just misses east but given the strength, way too close to totally write off now for some of those islands. Big Island probably fine outside of dangerous waves but those far northwestern islands...I'd be a little sweaty if I were them.

Some concerning guidance and trends for at least portions of the Hawaiian Islands regarding Lowell

Certainly going to start feeling more like Fall. Really sucks we could not tap into any of the heat/higher humidity.

ehhh not so sure about that. Both days are going to have some showers around and destructive sunshine with cold pool moving in aloft, especially on Sunday.

Glad it worked out across NY/PA but damn what a blow. Couldn't even muster one day.

What a line and reactivity gradient. Holy smokes

Easy to see where that will track. Hopefully we can get at least some isolated storms tomorrow afternoon

I find it odd that we can't develop storms tomorrow afternoon. NAM actually swings some decent s/w energy through during peak heating. NAM actually develops QPF between 18z-21z into western sections and then it goes poof.

Going to be some violence going through Rochester, Syracuse, Ithaca late on

I am going to miss being able to just throw on shorts and short sleeved shirt after showering in the morning. Here it is September and I’m still wearing shorts. I’ve adapted quite a bit over the past few years

*sigh*

There may be a window to get at least some isolated storms tomorrow afternoon. I wonder if there is actually potential for damaging wind gusts along the CT coast late tonight.

Holy shit

Yup...precisely this. At least for this period, there were some hints the end of last week we could see a bit more flexing of the ridge into our region versus previous instances this summer but that did not happen. It actually looks to happen for Thursday's potential but we get screwed over other ways lol. Its really amazing how when you look at this from a climatological perspective, more often than not, this is exactly what happens and the cutoff is always pretty much the same exact geography. Pretty fascinating from a science perspective

We don't get multiday severe potential very often but when we do, usually we'll get one day to work out. I mean southwestern CT certainly has some shot early this evening. There still may be some time to get Thursday to work but probably unlikely. But Thursday is quite complex...I may even be incorrectly evaluating and saying 850 front being the issue. Maybe we want to hope tomorrow night isn't as robust and we don't have to deal with thick overcast and precip to begin the day on Thursday. It's very possible this may be overstated too with the more robust precip going to our southwest where better instability is.

Unfortunately not looking good. Tomorrow night is probably just some heavy rain with some embedded thunder. All the good elevated CAPE remains to our west. on Thursday it looks like the 850 cold front will push through before the sfc cold front. So while we actually get into the warm sector and destabilize behind tomorrow nights rain, the 850 front coming through during the morning kills off any hope.