weatherwiz

coming down pretty good here with excellent snow growth. looks like a snowglobe outside

Yes, I think some need to realize that forecasting is more than just taking 8 seconds to look at QPF/snow maps and then creating a forecast

Probably get a nice CCB that goes bonkers just in time to get the Cape. Going to be a heavy, wet snow there

Looks like the 12z is curling the vort a bit more at 33hr compared to 6z...maybe even 0z

Yup...have to give credit where credit is due and this truly ends up being the case that is a major win in the AI camp and maybe even builds some confidence moving forward in which camp to follow should we see significant discrepancies between AI and traditional modeling. Now, that doesn't mean the results would be the same moving forward but this is a big confidence boost

This applies for for western areas as I do think eastern Mass/Cape stand a good chance for several inches of snow but I have major reservations about how much farther west appreciable QPF gets. I would like to see better dynamics overall to validate this. For example, on the ICON...I think that western edge would be nothing more than just some snow showers with putrid snow growth. Probably going to be an eastern Mass event with the cutoff back west to maybe around ORH

Back when the OV was getting that barrage of clippers there were multiple times that model was bringing good snows through Chicago while most other guidance was well south and Chicago ended up getting nada

That model gives me a headache

Yup...I want to see Euro/GFS continue with this. This has the makings of yet another big cutoff...I would feel much better if I was farther east for a bigger hit. I really have no clue where to lean right now lol. this is nuts

yup...that is going to be a big key I think

This is so tough...not sure exactly how much I'm sold on that much QPF extended back west.

Please let these trends continue 12z today.

1.3” nice!

Looks like recon is out...not sure if related to the storm but seems to be sampling along and within the Gulf

If we can get that vort better this would take off...and hell maybe the AIs are really out that prospect. But even looking at the GFS and how the we get a developing jet stream lifting poleward...you get quicker pressure falls at the sfc and the low to pop right along or near the Carolina coast, this thing probably tracks close to the benchmark. It might be a big ask but it really isn't far off from being a reality.

No they really aren't. I mean when dealing with phasing and relying solely on phasing, minuscule changes with how the energies evolve and interact can have significant differences on surface evolution. Traditional guidance is still struggling to get a good handle on the northern energy and even with how the southern energy evolves. It wouldn't take much but I presume we really need to start seeing a consensus towards positive ASAP

The NAM is pretty garbage but again not really a model to use for when dealing with phasing so all we can hope for is the GFS how some improvements

Looks like its still chasing convection

Quite the difference in that nrn stream on the 18z nam at 51hr compared to the 12z run lol

Ahh yes...thought it was later in the season. That was a brutal, brutal bust.

The biggest bust I can think of (in the opposite direction) was February 2018? (don't remember the date). It looked like a good chunk of SNE was inline for like 12-18" but the confluence to the north screwed us and Long Island got smoked. Southern CT barely ended up with more than a few inches.

I just find it really difficult to believe the traditional guidance would totally miss this...I mean this would be up there with one of the biggest busts in quite some time. If any of the big dawgs were showing a big hit I would perhaps feel a bit differently but what's really the likelihood of guidance being this wrong? Like lets say we didn't have AI guidance yet...how many of us would actually think there is a legit shot? I suppose though its still just far enough away to we could see big movements but we would have to see that tonight.

Just busting. I'm with you, it is very fascinating to see why the two camps are drastically different. My opinion on AI model aside (since ultimately my opinion means nothing), this is a tremendous opportunity within the field of forecast modeling and obviously the only way to ever see the true value in AI and how helpful will be is by putting it to the test. If the AI score a coop here that would not only be a tremendous win in the AI department but it probably also further exposes significant weaknesses in the traditional modelling. On the other hand, if the AIs fail here, then at least to me, signifies the importance of physics and complex equations and that there is much more to the evolution of weather than just on how a 'similar match' evolved historically.

Another theory is always trying to find a way to justify why the snowiest models are correct