weatherwiz

The only thing I think Scott tossed was just the snow maps.

That's right...when was he coming back again, Early Dec?

Unrelated but should be a nice hefty band of heavy snow that materializes and gets Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and probably even Chicago. Smack in the middle of the day too...travel will be a nightmare out that way.

One big difference too between this year (at this time) compared to the last several years is water temperatures off the coast aren't as warm. Maybe not a huge deal now, but if we keep getting these pushes of colder air, this could be something to help drive the baroclinic zone a bit farther south and east than we've seen lately. Maybe instead of seeing lows go bonkers inland in the southeast or mid-Atlantic that happens farther east either along or just off the coast.

This will probably really crank under the heaviest banding, but outside of the heaviest banding it may be quite a struggle. I would presume that overall snowgrowth zone will be relatively high and majority of the lift is going to be centered within the 925-800mb layer. So if you're under the heaviest banding...it's going to rock. But not under the banding, it will be a totally different story.

All things aside, both the Euro and GFS (at verbatim) would produce a pretty solid band of heavy snow. Way too early to really worry about the details and specifics. But in terms of potential snowfall amounts...it may be tough to get widespread warning criteria (maybe just barely warning snows but also depending on what's going on with the band and snowfall rates) due to how quickly it is moving but it's December 2nd and we're talking about potential for a large area to receive accumulating snow.

Gotta say...there are several who called for a flip to a more active pattern post Thanksgiving, and especially moving through the first week of December are looking good. Might not be much in the pipeline right behind this, however, the pattern is clearly transitioning to become more active in the upcoming weeks. All you can ask for right now.

This is comparing the 6z GFS to 0z GFS (but for same time) but these differences are pretty insane

I see the 6z GFS (at least) briefly get a double barrel low going. Tired of seeing those

Pretty solid ulvl divergence over the region. Love seeing where the 850 low begins to develop and track too. Would like to see a bit more consolidated vorticity field but I am intrigued and excited.

There are times when we can have a very solid idea looking 2-3-4 weeks out but I don't think this is one of those. There is just way too much going on and too many complexities, especially in the short term on how some of the subtle features evolve. Part of it too is we are still in the seasonal transition across the hemisphere and often times that can enhance the battles within the models. But I just want to get a favorable pattern moving through December and have cold air available. The brunt of the cold doesn't need to be over us and the cold doesn't necessarily need to be locked in. If we get a favorable storm track with cold air nearby...we will cash in (maybe not so much for coastal areas early on). Having cold air in place or even nearby means nothing if the storm track sucks.

Been thinking that all day, its had that look

yup...that could easily be overstated too.

A big problem is even when we seem to get good PAC setups we can't seem to get a favorable orientation of the ridge so what looks to be a +PNA I don't think is a true +PNA and with the orientation of the ridging it just results in a dump of cold and a trough into the West and the result in pumping the heights up out east...big problem to have, especially when the SE ridge is still a prominent player. We would either need to get some blocking to flatten it a big or hope for an active northern stream and keep dampening the ridge a bit. But let's see what happens across eastern Russia and Asia over the week. Right now you have the PV on that side of the hemisphere and you have lobes breaking off it and ejecting across the NPAC within the East Asian jet stream. Late this weekend the Euro breaks off a piece and it looks like this piece is slated to be a big player in how the pattern evolves By Thursday you have a major ridge bridge to the north with the energy significantly stronger and forced to remain south with a lead wave ahead of it This really helps to pump up a ridge downstream and helps aid in the amplification of that lead shortwave across the Northwest and a subsequent significant increase in the heights out in the East. My point in all this is just too illustrate how fickle guidance be be in the evolution of a pattern just from one piece. If such a piece never breaks off or is not as strong as advertised...that completely changes the game. The northern hemispheric flow is way too chaotic right now...its like a nascar track with too many drivers...so many drivers trying to set their lane and pace the field but everyone is competing to do the same thing. This makes it nearly impossible to have any idea of what to expect, until you start to see how these players in the 48-72 hour forecast actually look at 48-72 hours.

I could see NNE doing really well moving through Dec. But I'm holding out alot of hope on another SSW occurring. When you're looking for something to shake things up...that is something that can do it. Seeing how the stratosphere has evolved so far and some of the forecasts moving through the next few weeks...I think is a great signal. This opens the door for January and February. If December sucks then so be it...but if it does suck we better be seeing things starting to change...and I don't mean "10 days out stuff"...like actually physically ongoing changes

Pattern looks active but need to get the flow to kind of slow down a bit...but been waiting on that for like 8 years

The GFS could be ran on Nov 29 with all the input variables of the 27th and still not get how the 27th unfolded correct

Voted for 6th. Have a groomers appointment for the dog at 11:00 AM but that won't affect being able to go. I'm assuming we'd be meeting up somewhere between 1:00-2:00?

Yes, although now its a bit more difficult since last summer our dog had a severe spinal stroke which has left very little mobility/control of his back legs so his playing days are over. But the hope from the neurologist was over time he would get back to 100% but it never happened. We did a third and final MRI back at the end of the summer and it revealed the part of his spine that had the stroke (it was his second one) is slowly being replaced by fluid, so we went the wheel chair route and he loves it...can go on walks again! But being able to go on walks again is phenomenal.

Snow makes the early sunsets much more tolerable for sure. There is nothing like it being dark out at 4:30 with heavy snow falling and just the quietness outside with nobody driving. One thing that doesn't bother me either is the stars. Last night I was outside with the dog at like 6:15 and the sky was perfectly clear with plenty of stars overhead and the stars were bright and vibrant. I also did get a little sad though thinking back to the summer when it was 6:15 and just sitting outside drinking a beer. I think the key though with early sunsets and the seasonal depression stuff is just trying to stay busy...which is hard when you're cooped up inside because there isn't much to do outside. Early sunsets never really used to bother me until maybe the last 4-5 years and I've thought why that is...figured maybe just getting older but then it dawned on me. I used to be very active doing stuff...had season tickets to the Wolf Pack and would go to road games that they would play locally sometimes there could be like 3 games a week. Plus school kept me busy...then I finished school, and it was just work and being lazy. But being back in school + work...don't have time to notice it being dark

I feel like Detroit is just in a shit area for snow. Too far removed from Lake Michigan to get the good LES and generally too far northwest from low pressures that strengthen within the OV and moving out way. And with cutters...they are probably either just too far west for the goods or on the extreme western cutters for of a mix. Its probably clippers mostly for them?

even mesos are a mess for us, yes but I am looking at more of the region as a whole (including just to our south. I would have to think any north guidance with the heavier axis is wrong but we do get some increasing diffluence aloft late with PVA so we may see showers blossom (just not heavy rain...maybe coast gets heavier rain).

What an absolutely colossal joke guidance is with tomorrow night. Who event wants to forecast precipitation events 4-5 days out? It's been absolutely terrible. I can only wonder how many storms we'll see on guidance 4-5 days out and the snow maps of 8...10...12+ inches start flying out only for significant reductions inside of 48 hours. Or who knows...maybe we'll get some in the other direction where it looks like crap and then we're forecasting 6-10" all of a sudden

There was alot of ice in my freezer this morning too, more than usual. that's because I turned on the ice maker

Who uses an umbrella when its windy?