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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Yeah he's been quite spot on with diagnosing the trends and how things may evolve so I definitely think there is some additional room too but being cautious on the extent
  2. weatherwiz
    Absolutely nothing to complain about on that GFS run. Just have to hope we see a bump in that direction from the Euro too. You have to wonder though if this is the far western edge of the envelope of if there is some additional room for a bit N and W, if this is the western envelope I'd def be a little concern for those shuffles which of course wouldn't be good for western folk
  3. weatherwiz
    That is some serious dynamic cooling going on too. This LLJ is absolutely insane...imagine the moisture being tossed into this and look at those temps
  4. weatherwiz
    IDK...this looks pretty damn good to me with getting heavy banding across much of the region. That 700mb low development and track is pretty solid. Maybe not perfect but strengthening just to our south with a bit of ENE movement.
  5. weatherwiz
    70 days to go!!!
  6. weatherwiz
    Yup...can't believe I forgot to mention that and this probably supersedes what I mentioned in terms of importance. The NAM does have alot of strengths and unfortunately its weaknesses really suck but at least those are very easy to spot and understand.
  7. weatherwiz
    I could be 1000000% wrong on this but I think the holdup with that is there still is alot of work which needs to be done with its replacement. The NAM still remains the only model really which handles CAD extremely well and seems to be best in situations with hung up fronts and nearby boundaries. Getting rid of the NAM right now could be pretty horrific in some forecasting situations
  8. weatherwiz
    Isn't the SREF going bye-bye too later this year? I'll be sure to shed a tear
  9. weatherwiz
    Inclined to lean that way too. Haven't put a whole lot of effort into this until last night/this morning and looking at past models it does seem to be a bit of a trend in that way, at least short term. We can only hope 12z continues in this direction.
  10. weatherwiz
    That would certainly be ideal. This or just become kind of a non player (though I understand it would taper back the overall potential). But if that can phase in we are game on.
  11. weatherwiz
    If that trough axis can shift west just a tad more and dig a bit more this would be something. There is certainly enough time too to get a tick in that direction. That trailing s/w at 78 on GFS/Euro might just be screwing things up just a bit...you can tell this thing really wants to rip up just off the coast
  12. weatherwiz
    Can't hate overnight guidance, definitely enough to keep the interest involved. What we needed to see happen last night, we saw, at least to some degree. Now we hope to continue this as 12z
  13. weatherwiz
    Not much longer until we'll be tracking this
  14. weatherwiz
    I don't think recon is really out there for this system nor will it do much in terms of data for this.
  15. weatherwiz
    beautiful deflection in front
  16. weatherwiz
    There is still enough time and room for the south coast in this and it probably wouldn't even take much more to get at least some minor accumulations farther inland. Would probably want to start seeing some jumps 0z tonight and the theme continuing 12z tomorrow though
  17. weatherwiz
    I'm not so sure there would be a flood risk from the snow melt alone. Despite the smaller storms we've had and the one biggie, I think we're continuing to run a deficit in the the precipitation column so I think the ground could absorb a quite a bit of snow melt. Now, there could maybe be some issues which arise from ice jams and so forth.
  18. weatherwiz
    Also, after that stretch we had in January to the first part of this month, these temperatures aren't bad lol. Actually feels nice walking outside. I am sure in another month highs of 30's and lower 40's will get old but until then we enjoy
  19. weatherwiz
    We have a long ways to go before any sort of sustained major warmup. Heck, even looks like we're a long ways off from anything even a bit above climo. May as well just keep things active with potential events. Probably looking at another year where we go from 40's to 80's in a span of three days
  20. weatherwiz
    Definitely better there I think than south with the initial thump.
  21. weatherwiz
    NAM even kind of targets east facing slopes of the southern Greens and Berks with potential for accumulating snow with this
  22. weatherwiz
    Sim radars also showing a very convective look to the precipitation field tomorrow...makes sense given the steep lapse rates and weak elevated instability. Kind of reminds me of those awful spring days (even sometimes in the summer) when we get the hung up warm fronts and the day consists of clouds, periods of drizzle, and then spotty/brief heavier showers. But dealing with wintry precipitation types versus plain liquid
  23. weatherwiz
    colder/south in this case probably doesn't even do much to help, if anything would make things worse. Probably means less moisture influx (which is already limited) and even weaker dynamics (which are already pretty terrible). Better dynamics are lift is well to our northwest, closer to the main low. The weak sfc low development is enough to keep it just cold enough at the sfc for us to get some freezing drizzle or sleep pellets
  24. weatherwiz
    I expect the radar to be crap tomorrow. The dynamics aren't particularly great there is a quite a bit of dry air aloft (outside of a rather narrow axis of moist air lifting southeast to northeast). It will be the Adirondacks, Greens, and probably Berks that get any accumulating snow. Elsewhere its just going to be a combination of rain showers, freezing drizzle, and some sleet pellets. Probably some wet snowflakes for the hills.
  25. weatherwiz
    This. You really want to see surface temperatures more like 28-29 versus 31-32 to start having concerns for ice accretion and anything of subsidence outside of causing slick spots on untreated surfaces.
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