weatherwiz

Yup...I can't wait to draw a 2' area on my map. Have to break out the special paint brush for that

I would not be totally shocked if the QPF is even a bit underdone...at least wherever the CCB setsup and especially if this ends up being a scenario where that ends up pivoting.

You've been very spot on in all your analysis and assessments and with projected trends. Excellent stuff as always

I think someone could certainly see 3'

there may be a bit of a CT Valley screw zone and unfortunately I would be in that spot. Down into CT it may not be as terrible.

Yup...waiting on GFS. I may even hold off on the Euro but its game on.

I can't wait to make a snow map later. It's going to be like a rated R Picasso piece.

Big time wind damage across SE MA and the Cape, coastal RI, and far SE coastal CT

NAM going nuclear...holy shit. it's happening

Even though its the extended HRRR it has to be encouraging to see this right lol. It's in line with other guidance so that has to offer some increased confidence in the HRRR

It's absolutely insane holy shit

Going to be a fun day of model analyzing Probably put together a map/discussion after 12z.

This is pushing historic territory

There is going to be some major power outage concerns along the south coast.

Think 18z GFS is going to be phasing in lots of energy here. that is some potent energy just rounding the backside into this.

Good point

Not surprised given the increase in llvl dynamics. In fact, these totals from the NBM at this range are pretty damn impressive I think.

Ultimately, the processes involved are extremely complex. I'm sure if you have extremely sufficient snow growth production that can offset stronger winds. I don't recall what the winds aloft were that day but the winds with this will be a completely different magnitude. I also would think wind at cloud level will be much stronger than Jan 16 too. I do agree, I think the wind can get overstated at times when talking about being a hinder to ratios and snowgrowth but this would be a whole other level of magnitude that IMO winds would absolutely impact growth and ratios.

May be one of the most impressive MAULS I've seen here

The Sierras are much higher up in elevation. Less downward travel of the precip

Ratios in this would probably be at best 12:1 or so...maybe you can get 15:1 under the banding but that is going to be tough with the wind.

This looks a little fun

Was just looking at 700mb RH but it's not necessarily dry air on a better look...RH is still like 85-90%. I thought it was lower. But I have no complaints with the NAM...love where we sit on it. I would maybe like to see it occlude a bit farther north though, especially since it seems to really crawl. That would end up nailing with with a CCB but may also assist in pushing it farther north instead of sitting and then pivoting through? idk...kind of minute to worry about now but just a thought

Actually looks like the NAM is wrapping in some dry air

Let's Blizzicane it