weatherwiz

The Winter lecture my professor just posted for winter weather forecast actually has a slide on Kuchera method. One of the bullet points Does not account for vertical velocity, depth of DGZ, saturation of DGZ, dry layers near surface, time of year, or stability Often overpredicts snowfall in in very cold airmasses and in marginal/mixing situations

That's why I am not a fan of the snow maps, all they do is just take forecast QPF and multiply that by a snow ratio. There is no factoring in of lift, snow growth, RH of the DGZ and RH with respect to ice crystals in the DGZ. What separates the Kuchera from 10:1 (besides the obvious being 10:1 maps are constant) is it factors in the average temperature of the llvls to compute a snow ratio. The Kuchera method I also believe was designed to be a tool for snowfall depth. There are a few moduels on MetEd which go into some depth on these maps. When it comes to verifying Kuchera versus what occurred, the results were/are not particularly great.

I don't think that is true. The only method which factors in lift and omega is the cobb technique. What the Kuchera (and 10:1) do when it comes to max banding is highlight where the greatest QPF is forecast (by the model) and where that coincides with what the model believes will be all snow

12z NAM bufkit BDL....LG....LFG. Look at that thump. And we get consistently good lift through the DGZ for the duration

100% And speaking of that, the snow side of things is overperforming in parts of the South, particularly Arkansas at least

This is going to be amazing. I don't want to use the T word but can it happen?

The method uses like an average temperature of the lower troposphere to determine a snow ratio. I think in these situations with the very cold llvls below an above warm layer, yes the Kuchera method would "inflate" the output. The Kuchera method is so terrible...equally as worse as 10:1 maps

Still don't see sleet having a large (negative) impact on snow totals down here. Maybe towards the shoreline it knocks off a few inches or so but not inland.

Was looking at the omega

oh hells yeah

I’m really hoping this pans out and I can get a foot. My girlfriend (who I met in 2021) moved up from Florida late 2018 or so and this would be the biggest storm she’s seen. Thought it would happen last year but Connecticut got crushed. I’m also hoping to see what the dogs reaction would be (if he cares). He’s coming the end and it would be cool to see if he would like it and go around in it with his doggy wheel chair

We can’t get greedy!

SWFE, NWFE, Miller A, Miller B, clipper, redeveloper…who cares. It’s going to snow and it’s going to snow a lot

You couldn’t ask for a better setup for the region given the last several years. Everyone wins in this setup. There really isn’t a screw zone. It’s a region wide dumping

meh we'll see how these cloud physics work out for me

With the way they plow here I wouldn't be shocked if they end up closed through Thursday. Probably won't see a plow on my street until Tuesday.

Yeah I don't see sleet reducing totals anywhere. The bulk of everything already occurs. Its not a big deal

Wasn't entirely sure I'd get to do into enough detail to make a forecast but alas I did. I originally had the whole area of 12-18" but wanted to highlight that potential for some higher amounts in northeast Mass...I think that signal could be very real. Didn't want to go crazy and throw out 18-24" contour so just bumped 12-18 to 10-15 to add a 15-20 area. This is what winter is all about!!!!!! LFG!!!!!!! Massive snowstorm and a Pats trip to the super bowl incoming. Someone pinch me I'm dreaming https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2026/01/significant-snowstorm-to-impact.html

Its the 84 hr NAM gut that is a lot of DPVA throughout the day Monday (seem better animated of course) And we're in the left exit region of this monster jet streak

The coastal front is going to be insane. I think we know where the jackpot zone is going to be

yeah not sure if its a cod thing but its a little funky in that regard. but thats the type of lift we want to see!

Oh here we go...northeast CT right along the RI border. This is it

Going to be a hellacious fronto band moving through

Nothing loads for me either I forgot all about his page...his site used to be my go to for soundings back in the day.

Yup...great point. I'll say too...looking around at various locations, I would like to start seeing some stronger omega values popping up on some of these soundings. It's easy to get carried away with ratios given everything but we aren't going to automatically snag very high ratios because the DGZ is deep and its cold. There are really a ton of details to go over and analyze on this