weatherwiz

I'm definitely over it, just nothing fun about it.

I feel cautiously optimistic for the post Christmas period (or maybe even around)...but saying this I also feel I'm setting myself up to fall into the cycle of "pattern looks good early Dec, delayed to after the 10th, delayed to around Christmas, delayed until after New Years). But the overall regime does look like it will relax some which would put us very close to that battle ground of warmer temperatures to the south and colder temperatures nearby. You always have to watch though for cutters which makes me a bit nervous. I am just going into this with no expectations really. All possibilities have nearly an equal chance of happening right now.

I think the northern extent for anything accumulating beyond a coating will be Long Island and maybe extreme southern RI. The DGZ is certainly very deep and the potential for ratios to be great (>15:1) are high, however, we will need to at least generate enough lift into the DGZ (which is thankfully low) but just don't see that happening. Yeah I know the famous if's...if x does this or y does that but maybe most will at least see a coating but there is the risk for alot of virga (think Will said) so we'll have to rely on localized areas of stronger lift so it's possible many struggle to even get a coating

Yearn for warmth...it will be cold

Could get some snow showers Monday night, maybe even squalls which could drop a quick coating to an inch

I'm sure there will be a passing game for just snow showers

At least this GIF is festive Looks like the color changing Christmas Lights people hang outside

The GFS/Euro for the second half of the week across the country are not even on the same planet lol. Not sure if its because the GFS has some cut off energy held in the deep South but it's absolutely insane how different they are.

That model needs a lot of work

My stance is by 12z runs tomorrow any guidance that was ticking more “favorable” will revert back leaving an outcome of just some snow showers. Maybe someone gets a coating

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I'm going to miss Tequila Barry Send him my best

I was wondering if there would be upgrades to warnings in the OV for tonight. Surprised there aren't more warnings. I could see a narrow but elongated strip of 6-8". Going to be some surprised peeps there in the morning.

December can have some biggies but that also shows that March used to be just as snowy, if not snowier than December. I'm sure the BDL average for March the past 10-15 years has went down

I have the gaps in the data in a notebook that Will posted way back in the day and some stuff from Ryan too for BDL. It just sucks you check the records online and you either have no data or incorrect. Just think of the discrepancies it elicits. Like if you go check BDL on threadex for 1995-1996...it only has BDL like 106" or something versus 115.2" or 116.2" (forgot what it is).

that data gap is so stupid. It pisses me off everytime I look at snowfall data.

there is almost a better shot at getting severe weather on May 31 than there is a white Christmas

I was just looking at that This is phenomenal work. Incredible job to all involved in this.

most exciting weather upcoming will be the landslides in the PAC NW next week

This deserves post of the year

nahhh otherwise Metfan would have spammed us with 8000 images from the JMA by now

How bout 726 hr

I retired from drinking 40's of Steel Reserve

I was just rip and reading the GFS lol. But I just happened to look at the Euro...what a difference. anyways I am with you, I think the extent of the ridging we've been seeing will end up getting muted (though we probably still end up on the milder side).

Gotta say...for that Christmas period, it is getting a bit more difficult to find any potential to wedge at the surface. The position of the sfc low would favor deep southwesterly flow across the eastern third of the country. Doesn't look like there is any room for a high to our north or northeast.

Right...2-4" does so much to the morale. The 4" I got last week was perfect. It really sucks things haven't worked out as well in this pattern. You get 3-4 events which produce even 2-4" and they just add up quick.