weatherwiz

hey the classification system isn't perfect but aren't there like micro-designations anyways?

Actually its not really the timing that screws us, the trough sort of de-amplifies a bit and all the dynamics lift to our northwest

We'd probably see a marginal risk if not for the crappy timing

Technically as we are a continental climate type, our summers are defined as being warm and humid, so yes it will be a warm and humid summer

In about 15 or 16 days the CMC will get into May

Tuesday will be a day where mountains in VT/NH somehow pull off 5-8" with upslope

Highs well into the 90's to lower 100's within southern California Monday with teens in the upper-Midwest

yup doesn't seem to be any stations around POU reporting precip

just started sleeting here

It's not about what happens on May 1, it's about what it means. It's akin to like June 1 being the start of hurricane season...what happens on June 1 in terms of tropics? Nothing necessarily but it designates the start of the month where activity can start increasing. Outside of the Earth's tilt of the axis, what exactly happens on the first day of spring, summer, fall, winter...nothing really. It just marks a period in the transition.

Interesting note on the SSW (well lackof). One thing I find interesting this winter (based on the pattern) was the lack of a more active STJ (maybe that was a product of ENSO state?). Of course, when we did have the active STJ with the blocking in January, we saw what happens when those to coincide. I'll say this and this is going to yield alot of agree-to-disagree, but after the last few years or several years...give me an active southern stream versus an active northern stream any day of the week. Sure active northern stream comes with plenty of opportunities but we just try to will them a chance because of the probability (or potential game) with the mindset of, "well one of these have to work out". what does work out and I bet with high probabilities (or "higher") is throwing an active southern stream into the mix when you have blocking and the polar jet throwing PV lobes into our side of the hemisphere.

We really did get lucky here this winter and fortunately we were able to cash in. While I didn't write up an official outlook, I did make several posts that I was fearful of anomalous above average temps across the U.S. based on how the state of the PAC was right through fall and into early winter. But I think you could argue too (and I'm sure Ray will address this in his post analysis) that the state, obviously combined with the early on SSW really helped to save us from those anomalies stretching east.

I am curious to see if we will see wind advisories expand to cover all of SNE. The overnight timing of the LLJ though complicates things but we do have strong CAA so that may help realize wind advisory thresholds.

Actually region as a whole tomorrow has a good chance for some squalls or at least probably a mixture of rain/snow showers (or predominately snow).

May see multiple rounds of squalls NOP tomorrow evening into the early overnight. Even a bit unstable too so can't rule out some thunder/lightning

I don't think I could ever use March to drop a grade, but I could use March to raise a grade. March is too much of a transition month and *typically* the best chances for widespread accumulating snowfall are going to come during the first half of the month versus the second half of the month. Sure March can be cold and snowy but March can also be rather mild. March (to me) is like a stat padding month, hence it can act to boost the grade. But if winter was pretty damn solid going into March and March doesn't deliver...oh well. Not going to let that downgrade what was a fun winter.

50 days to go!!!

EWR shot from 68 to 80 in an hour

Going to be great to get some boomers tonight

I wonder if that line can maintain enough later this evening to get a storm storm into the Berks

Going to suck when May comes and these have no problem yielding widespread stratus with drizzle and temps in the 40's

I wonder if the extreme shallowness of this airmass back door) should have been a flag that the NAM was overstating the impact too much. The airmasses with backdoors are generally shallow but this one seems even more so than your usual. There is no secret that this time of year (and 99% of the time) you toss the NAM temperatures. But when you have situations like CAD or BDCF potential...well the NAM deserves alot of weight. But the low-level airmass in place is quite unseasonably warm and I guess even for early March, we have enough solar heating and mixing to either halt the BDCF or weaken it. If you follow MSLP evolution on SPC mesoanalysis you can clearly see either the boundary weakening or even kind of retreating. Despite the stronger heating though, we're clearly having trouble mixing so there is definitely something going on within the BL.

Interesting how the parent NAM has hardly any QPF tomorrow while essentially every other model does

If anyone wants or is looking for winter storms, the northern Rockies, northern Plains, and upper-Midwest is where you'll want to be

Meanwhile down in Hawaii animated.mov