weatherwiz

How do you upload pics through mobile? Keep getting some 502 error

VT/NH/MA and extreme N CT is in line for some hefty rainfall totals. Greatest severe threat should be with the initial discrete cells and probably moreso as the cores collapse. Evening commute going to be a disaster.

These outta have some nice gust fronts and/or shelf clouds I would think.

Dews must be compensating for the weak lapse rates. 1500-2000 J of MLCAPE with 25-30 knots of effective shear isn't too bad.

Great combination of high temperatures, dewpoints, steep lapse rates, and wind shear look to become juxtaposed across northern New England late Saturday. While you would think timing may become a concern, extreme instability looks to remain in place well into the overnight hours. Forecast models indicate a potential MCS developing...or re-energizing as it rides over the crest of the ridge. Wind shear will be more than supportive for organized and sustaining updrafts. Looks like a signal for a widespread damaging wind event may be unfolding.

Well it's not just the SPC...they'll collaborate with local offices when it comes to the issuance of watches. There may be a small area where shear/instability are maximized and could have a localized concentration of severe but don't think it will be too widespread.

I don't think we'll see a watch today...or we shouldn't anyways. These are not setups which are prone to producing severe weather...at least on a large enough scale. The degree of sun is also a small factor IMO in these setups...it's more of a factor to enhance likelihood of parcels being able to reach the LFC but it isn't a huge factor in severe weather potential. All instability today is low-level...that's why SBCAPE is quite high. This is due to rich llvl moisture and the warming sfc temperatures...this again will help with getting parcels to LFC. The bigger issue though is what happens above the LFC. Very poor mlvl lapse rates and moist tropospheric profile mean there is very poor instability aloft..."tall skinny CAPE"...this can be seen by meh MLCAPE. As parcels rise above the LFC they will do so but not very rapidly or aggressively...this limits updraft strength. Wind fields are not very strong, but just sufficient enough to yield some updraft organization and the orientation of the flow will organize updrafts into a linear fashion...and as you mentioned a training fashion. Given rather warm temperatures aloft and poor instability not only will lightning production not be prolific but the overall look favors extremely heavy downpours and flash flooding. With warming sfc temperatures you'll develop an inverted-V signature and this would locally promote the potential for a wet microburst. DCAPE values though didn't seem overly impressive on soundings and that is likely a reflection by the saturated look up to the EL.

sea-breezes along the coast??? who would have guessed

I find his posts to be pretty cute. Gets the blood flowing. Summer Kevin is the best. Favorite thing to do when I first woke up in the morning was jump on and read Kevin talking HHH

I'll start a thread up tomorrow after work! Going out after work today and won't be home until like 9:30 tonight

Hope he got the fireplace inspected

When in the shower this morning I was thinking about the Patriots and I realized the NFL season starts in less then 2 months...summer is almost over

Congrats I still think flash flooding is the greatest risk today, however, with the high dews and what should be steep llvl lapse rates we could certainly see some wet microbursts today

I really noticed the loss of daylight in the morning this morning. Sad...very sad. Nights getting shorter, this has been a horrific summer for convection. I hope winter is super warm b/c the last two were brutal

Yeah very true. It’s very difficult anyways to get temperatures to spike above 100 and keep super high dews. Like you said...either way it’s going to be quite nasty outside regardless.

I’m thinking that dews end up mixing down into the mid 60’s. The high clouds may halt some areas getting to 100 or 101. There are even some hints we could see convection during the day

Saturday screams high cloud debris. also, I am not buying these 105-110+ heat index values being tossed around Saturday. So many running with those numbers. Even if there is no cloud debris I don’t see dews staying into the 70’s

bring the boat

Maybe he gave his phone PED's We were going to a g2g and wanted to hit the road

I could have swore his thing said like 980'....and his house was a bit higher up than where he picked me up. He was picking me up where Electric Blue is

I think the majority will but I can see stuff beginning to develop as early as 2-3 PM.