weatherwiz

I've been reading on on some papers regarding ENSO (not necessarily newly published papers) but one thing I find intriguing regarding ENSO is how the ENSO event develops...and more specifically EL Ninio events. Obviously each event is different...different strengths, where the warmest anomalies are located, but this one paper I'm reading talks about HOW the event develops...I guess typically you would expect EL Nino's to develop as the easterlies weaken (or reverse in strong events) the WHWP spreads east...however, EL Nino events as of late have had a tendency to develop in the central Pacific.

WTF...NWS pages have been very odd lately

June 5, 2007. That was a fun day. It was a Tuesday. I was at work and this is where my memory is faded but I remember checking something...possibly on a phone but I didn't have a phone at the time but there were I think tornado warnings very nearby. I remember going home and getting onto the computer and there were supercells firing off...like classic supercells. The storm structures were amazing...never seen anything like it (up until that time). I think I may even have a picture of the satellite from that day. What I recall happening was llvl winds backed around the pre-frontal trough as it was coming through and the shear became highly favorable for supercells. Everything also started on the earlier side (late morning). I wonder if it held off a few hours longer if it would have been a bigger event.

That was pretty crazy.

WTH has been wrong with this page? It's been horrific the past several months https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products/bullform.all.php#bottom Thank God for this https://leonardo.met.tamu.edu/Weather_Interface/index.php

95 days to go!!! Will be doing a countdown post every Monday morning. Will also be incorporating one or two or five posts per week dedicated to a previous convective event.

that's a good point...but yikes thats a bit of money

I bet haha. Much easier and more fun

That sounds pretty exciting! I'm actually strongly considering pursuing masters in the fall...doing the online route at Mississippi State. Some of the classes offered look like a ton of fun

Well folks we are now under 100 days!!! 99 days to go!!!! 99 calendar days to go 99 calendar days to go you rip a date down then its one less day to go!!!!

As we make strides towards the second half of winter that means spring is right around the corner!!! This is usually a great opportunity to start shifting the brain towards convective forecasting. Great time to discuss previous events and start throwing out ideas on how the global pattern may evolve as we move through spring. This May is extra special as I am likely going to go tornado chasing out west for the first time ever!!!! But with that said...can't lose focus on our severe season as once the Plains season winds down we quickly ramp up. 102 Days to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am like 95% certain I'll be going out to OK at the end of May for two weeks!!!! With the gas mileage I get I figured probably $90 each way for gas (maybe another $60 to $90 for chasing...although probably not nearly that much...just going to stay within a certain radius of where we go). Tolls I guess are MUCH less than I anticipated. Was looking up motels and they are dirt cheap.

Oh good. I was worried that front could hang around there for some time.

hoping the fog won't be an issue at PWM tonight.

I usually wait until winter is really sucking. then once i fire it up winters comes with a vengeance. Just remember though it's a copyrighted thread so if anyone else were to ever start it without my consent it must be deleted.

You're missing out

my mistake...yeah Feb 2006...I think I said Feb 2006 in the paragraph lol. I was thinking of the December 1, 2006 severe wx event when I typed that

1. May 31, 1998 Severe Weather Outbreak - This date can actually be defined as that entire weekend (Friday, May 29 to Sunday, May 31). I was in 4th grade at the time and I was going to my sisters for the weekend who lived in Windsor Locks. I don't remember the exact timing, but we had some real nasty t'storms move through late Friday afternoon. This was a pretty decent event (though I think the worst was just southwest of SNE). IMO, this day also gets very underlooked when discussing the 5/31/98 event as it played a crucial part in the outbreak. The cold front which produced the t'storms Friday, stalled south of the region. This boundary then moved north Sunday as a warm front...and a pretty active one as it produced rain and t'storms...I think even some severe weather. Anyways...enough of the weather set-up. From watching the news and reading the newspaper, I knew there was a risk for severe weather Sunday and I was PUMPED b/c I was going to be in Windsor Locks...just b/c of the 10/3/79 event I associated Windsor Locks with a great severe spot lol. The day started off cloudy/rainy, but by mid-morning skies quickly became sunny and it got hot and humid. I think it was also the neighbors kids birthday b/c there was a party going on...the Red Sox also played the Yankees this day and scored 10 runs in the 3rd inning I think...I remember eating a banana with my two nephews and friends and we were walking up and down the street chanting, "Red Sox rule, Yankees drool". Anyways...I kept closely watching TWC and listening to the radio and the were mentioning tornadoes and I was pumped...then the watch came out. Unfortunately, since I had school the next day I had to return home to West Hartford...I was pissed b/c I wanted to stay. When I got home I didn't even have to put TWC on b/c my parents already had it on. We closely watched as the t'storms in NY started approaching CT. Finally, the storms pushed into the state and a tornado warning went out for Litchfield County and the cell was headed in our direction. My parents went into the kitchen and I heard them making preparations to get myself, two brothers, and our kitty into the basement. My two brothers were scared but I was loving it. The t'storms hit and it was NUTS...strong winds, nickel hail (first time I'd seen hail) and then...a funnel cloud (or what my dad and I swear was a funnel cloud). We were both looking out the window (towards the east) and keep it mind its like 9:30-10:00 PM and real dark...only lightning lighting up the sky. In between the two houses across the street was this incredibly low cloud that may have been rotating. I'll never forget that. Also, around this time we got a call from my sister screaming, "THERE'S A TORNADO....OH MY GOD....THERE'S A TORNADO"...Windsor Locks also doesn't have many homes with basements in them and she is freaking out b/c she had 3 kids at the time...so we told her get into either the bathroom or a closet with blankets. Turns out not a tornado but she was dead smack in the middle of the microburst. 2. December 2006 snowstorm WOW...that was wild. I think I got 14'' of snow in 3-hours; including thundersnow. Ended up with 27'' of snow...half the storm total coming in that 3-hours when the death band just sat and pivoted. By far the most snow I had ever seen...until 2013. 3. June 10, 2008 (I think it was the 10th) 20 minutes of hail...mostly pea but as big as nickle...it piled up and accumulated...never, ever seen anything like that and haven't since. The duration of the hail was unbelievable. 4. May 15, 2018 Was in Danbury on a date that day and we were just a FEW MILES from the Microbust which occurred at Candlewood Lake). Had nickle hail and just insane winds. It was so wild couldn't even hear the thunder. What was really crazy was the power went out even before the gust front got to us. 5. Blizzard of 2013 Jaw dropping snow rates and flake size...it was like a severe thunderstorm with snow...winds were pretty strong too. I think I got 27.5'' of snow or 28' which just beat out Feb 2006. The snow drifts were wild. At some point could barely even see the street from outside my window. I think snow rates were like 3-4''/hour in WeHa. But I think Steve posted getting like 5-6''/hr...those radar returns were beyond insane.

can'tr rule out thunder either. soundings are pretty impressive with some weak instability

true

that may have been the same exact winter I am thinking of. Actually i think you're right

Question...this isn't storm related but I can't remember this for the life of me. I remember several...several winters back...this may even go back to Eastern US Wx days but there was one winter where there was alot of talk about confluence to the north...I think that was the term...but if I am thinking of this correctly having confluence just to our north is NOT good for us...it keeps storm track suppressed to our south?

Jesus...seeing when this was made and then realizing how long we've been at American Wx is insane...7 years now Can't believe how old I'm getting

If anyone is interested in an NFL pick-em league we have two leagues which members on this board can participate in. One of the leagues is free and has been an ongoing tradition of Eastern/American Wx for at least 10 years now. This league is done directly through this forum in the sports thread. The second league is entering its third season here on the boards and is a pay-league. He platform we've used in the past is yahoo, however, a different platform may be used this year. If you have any interest in participating in one or both of the leagues check out the following thread. The more participants, the more fun the league, and for the pay league, the more potential winnings! https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50203-nfl-pick-em-2017-2018/#comment-4596041