weatherwiz

That actually would be a bit exciting to see...not very often we see jumps of like 30F around here. Could be some cases where we drop like 15F right after sunset and rise like 15F in the few hours after sunrise

nahh I made it up lol

Looked like we could see a predominately westerly flow so maybe some downsloping to tack on a few extra degrees?

It all began Monday night at about 11:47 PM EDT. I was eagerly awaiting the GFS to get beyond hr 180 as it showed a circulation of cirrus clouds off the Bahamas. On the monitor to the right were the latest SST's off the eastern seaboard with the latest update occurring earlier that day. The map showed above-average SST's off the eastern seaboard. I was beginning to think this area of cirrus could blossom into a category 3 hurricane given these SST's. While waiting for the GFS to update, I glanced over at my latest novel, "Tornadoes on the Cape". Then it occurred to me, I had written a post on American talking about a hybrid low pressure and cold fronts, etc. I quickly turned my attention to the forecast models on the Cape. As I looked thoughts were racing through my mind, "WARM WATERS, HIGH CAPE, HIGH SHEAR, WARM WATERS, COLD FRONT, WARM WATERS". Tornadoes entered my mind. I stayed awake all night in anticipation. Finally at about 10:30 AM I was tracking an area of t'storms...even supercells south of Long Island moving in my direction...waterspouts looked likely. I was exhausted, couldn't stay awake any longer so I thought I'd take a quick nap. Well a quick nap turned into hours. When I awoke I jumped to the radar...it passed...WTF. I go outside...damage everywhere, trees down, roofs blown off, utilities poles snapped. I couldn't believe it...did a tornado pass through my area and I was asleep? I jumped onto twitter, saw some videos. Someone asked me if they could share a video I didn't even take. In the excitement of the moment I said yes...I jumped up and down like a kid getting a cookie. Then I had realized, I just committed fraud and quickly mentioned that I was not the one who took the video.

Not taking into account any type of cloud cover or convective potential...BDL and some other stations would be able to tack on some more 90 days beginning later this weekend moving into next week. It's not an anomalous pattern but 850 temperatures will be above-average next week so the majority will see temperatures above-average...regardless if whether you live 1500' up, 300' up, or are surrounded by forest.

It seems events and/or setups (with this type of potential) have become increasingly more common the last several years. Not to steer this into the whole climate change idea but you really have to wonder if this sort of trend will continue. Even for New England in general we've seen so many more setups where a tornado isn't all that unlikely. When I first started following SPC outlooks sometime in the early 2000's or so I seem to remember like maybe once or twice a summer they would have the term "tornado" in with any New England discussion. The last several years it seems like 95% of our risk areas has mention of the term.

James the new katdog? or who was the poster who used to predict the future lol

Extremely...that is like the 2nd (at least tornado she has been in). Back when I was in 4th grade I was supposed to go with her to FL (or around 4th grade...might have been 5th but that was AGES ago) but I had hurt my knee and couldn't go. A TORNADO (weak one) WENT THROUGH THERE AREA. On 5/31/98 I had stayed over her house for that weekend b/c I knew the severe wx risk...well 5/31 was a Sunday and I had school the next day so I had to go home (back to WeHa) like 6 PM or so...anyways I missed the microburst AND SHE WAS IT HARD. FOOOOOOKKKKKKKKKKKKK

Holy crap...my sister was at the motel where the roof was blown off

It's not the size of the boat, its the motion of the ocean

wtf??

OMFG

I'm dying

I guess the dawn awoken

Wtf

hmmm maybe it was inflow then. CC's were like .76 with Z around 1-2

Yeah that's a good point...it may actually been fanning out lofted debris...that second TDS in question seemed to jump around quite a bit each scan...and in an odd motion which could certainly indicate it was lofted debris. Is it ZDR that can help with determining inflow? If I remember correctly I think ZDR values were super low...like 1 or 2 dB. I forget though how to use these for inflow. Would have to go back over the notes

I would think there were two different circulations. It was tough to tell but I thought there were two TDS signatures going on at times.

I don't think some of the shear parameters were anything unprecedented...the ULJ though is quite strong for this time of year...but it was just a right combination of llvl instability and the strong low-level wind shear. Everything just came together.

yup great combo of 0-3km CAPE/wind shear

glad you're alright!

I would agree based on the velocity. We already know there was a tornado but I think there certainly was significant straight line wind damage as well.

and one of them resulted in an F2 I believe which is still (I think strongest on record)

Important thing is they're alright. spoke with a friend of mine who lives in that area as well...he was at work but sounds like a direct hit to his neighborhood

Good to hear he is safe. I hope James is safe too...looked to go real close to him.