weatherwiz

During our upcoming below-average pattern, we're going to see some pretty strong ridging develop across the western U.S. which is going to be rather persistent and this is going to yield some decent warmth at 850mb. There seems to be strong consensus (with teleconnection support) that we will see ridging build across much of the CONUS moving towards the end of the month into September. Perhaps not Sonoran heat release type stuff, but much of that warmer air would propagate and advect into our area and the flow would keep this constant. Not only should it be quite warm but I think we'll also be dealing with high humidity too.

I think this is the type of approach that many like to take, however, I'm beginning to think this type of approach doesn't have as much merit as we would think. There are too many inter/intra-seasonal variables and influences which happen or can happen which are probably not correlated very well with the transition from the northern hemisphere summer to the northern hemisphere winter. I think one such example/phenomena is poleward propagating planetary waves...something like this can really escalate changes within the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere...heck it can yield changes which were not really foreseen.

Sept will be a top 3 warmest Sept for several New England sites

it was chilly this morning.

I agree that it looks marginal...may be enough elevated CAPE though that you could get a decent storm. But yeah...south of the Pike looks solid. Also looks to me like storm motion may be right along the boundary which would prmote 1) training cells perhaps 2) enhanced SRH

I could see dews in the 73-77F range down this way Wednesday.

euro looks a bit beefy Wednesday too

We'll go around to below average for a period, but we're going to get right back into a quite above-average pattern at some point during the second half of August and that could stick around through a good chunk of September.

There is not

Even the 12z GFS came in a bit more impressive than 6z. Here is NAM Bufkit for BDL...not bad

The NAM is quite impressive

Too lazy to read from where I've left off, but any talk about Wednesday? Not a severe wx outbreak type setup but the NAM has legit potential for an isolated tornado or two MA Pike on south.

I think that is going to end up becoming a washed up piece of poop by the time it makes it anywhere near the US...if it even makes it that far Probably going to get caught up in some front and just become absorbed.

North Pole. I would think Pike on North...even some stuff down this way but I would think more isolated and pulse type. Didn't look super close but I would think some room for some hailers/damaging winds Saturday closer to the better dynamics.

Saturday could be a bit fun...especially up north

Why are we using 70 as a threshold to define humidity? 70 and above is oppressive and usually 65 is the threshold for getting into moderate levels of humidity. Also, using “hours over 70” doesn’t really seem like a valid method of trying to come up with a conclusion on this

Outside of the stretch we had last week overnight lows/early AM temps have not been impressively warm. Now I know that I get cool or chilly much more easily than the average person but there have been numerous days this summer that when I'm stepping out in the morning (~ 5 AM) I need a light coat. Daytime temperatures have been rebounding quite well and obviously that stretch has been quite above-average in spots

This is true and a great statement. I hate how one location accounts for an entire area...that is incredibly misleading.

b/c yesterday was Sunday and Monday comes after Sunday

The biggest concern should be the Arctic in terms of warming IMO...what's happening there is what should be raising alarms all across the board, but for some reason people don't want to buy it. Was it in May when some place within the Arctic circle recorded a temperature of 84F...that's absurd. As the ice caps continue to shrink and the degree of ice covers decreases the earth's albedo is only going to decrease and allow for more radiation to be absorbed at the higher latitudes which will continue to yield stronger warming there. Another sort of scary thought is how as this ice melts there may be bacteria that has been locked up for millions of years now becoming airborne...I was reading about that somewhere. But yeah...Coral reefs is a substantially huge issue.

ahhh I think I remember that. I drafted Severino on my fantasy team b/c I really like him and just before he started to struggle I used him to get Max Scherzer

I think I had to have the heat on in the car for like 10 min Thursday and Friday morning to get the chill out...and stop the windows from fogging up

If the Red Sox can get into the playoffs...I'll take their SP over the Yankees any day of the week.

Hasn't he had 2nd half struggles through his young career? Having him would certainly be a help but IMO they would still need another top guy...maybe not a #1