weatherwiz

It is more than just the Arctic..but overall that's been the main driver of things. But I'm not so sure it becomes less impactful/hostile in March...at least when the signal is this strong. I agree that is the case when the signal is more muted or not as defined...but this puppy is a beast...this is a near historic +AO. I agree...but the shortening of wave lengths probably doesn't really do much to the pattern until what maybe late spring...? (Not totally well-versed on this subject) so not sure that alone would help us out.

nahhh you're good haha. Believe it or not I'm quite frustrated with this winter too lol...this has been pathetic. I was so pumped as the December start (I want to live through 100'' again). we're all angry and taking frustrations out any way possible

Saw this posted on twitter earlier...this is ridiculous. About as strong of a SPV you can get. The only thing that is going to break this down is the transitioning to northern hemisphere summer https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-87.56,48.38,325

I meant to say shorten...not lengthen. If we were in a completely different state I wouldn't be so quick to write off March but I just don't see the changes needed to completely disrupt things. Some winter the PAC completely dominates and when it's an unfavorable PAC we can be screwed big time...this time it's the Arctic. The signal is just too overpowering.

I think March has potential to be quite warm...if the AO remains as strongly positive as it is...which seems plausible combined with the look of the Pacific...once we start lengthening shortening the wavelengths as we near spring we could roast. I think we'll have to get lucky and time something right with a shot of cold air...that's not going to happen with this end of the week shot so we'll have to wait for the next one...which may not be until sometime next week...which may not even come out to be much if the AO rises like it seems to do

But it's more than just the seasonal vibe...it's what's occurred through the season. It would be totally different if the atmospheric state was different and we were just missing events...but that hasn't been the case. The entire hemispheric pattern has been pretty horrific...especially regarding the Arctic and that circulation has not only been strong but it's been dominating. This just isn't going to change overnight or in a week or two. There needs to be significant impact and disruption for changes to occur and there is typically a good 2-4 week lag from when those disruptions occur to the evolution of the pattern. All winter long...all winter long has been nothing but "500 looks good in 10 days" "EPS looking good in the long range" "GEFS and EPS agree it's coming" blah blah blah blah There is a reason why everything is shown at D10 and then the signal just completely disappears inside D5-6...models are always, always way too fast to completely change a pattern and there was never anything which supported the Arctic circulation changing...outside of what ensembles or D10 progs have shown...where there are disruptions occurring at the present that's when you can expect these D7-10 solutions to hold merit. I understand the theme is winter, cold, and snow and people don't want to hear things which dispute that...but when facing hard core reality the drawing has been on the board since the end of December/early January how this winter was going to unfold. People can do all they want to try and hold out hope that March will deliver...and then try and toss some past years which delivered to make them feel better or as a method to install hope. Even all winter (like what typically happens) those who have been "poo-pooing" winter and any threats get **** on but at the end of the day they've been spot on. People who like cold and snow just don't want to hear anything that disputes those possibilities.

When you have to hope for March to deliver to make things up....: Has it happened before...sure, but the odds aren't great. It's like being 20-games out of a playoff spot with 21-games left...it's over...it sucks but move on. "Hoping" isn't going to make things change

I can already smell the tulips

We could really be heading towards a snooze fest of a pattern...to me it seems like a pattern we would see between the transition from fall to winter...where things sort of quiet down after the fall and then we establish our winter pattern. But there seems to be strong support for large high pressure to become established over a major chunk of the U.S. Patterns like that can hold for quite a while too. I'm guessing after that pattern we could bold right into a late spring type pattern.

Only part of this statement is fully accurate...though the jest of it is true.

One of these days when I have time I'm going to go on a nice ranting blog post about this and snow maps. Perhaps I'll do that this upcoming Sunday.

Couldn't agree anymore here...people are willing to wait hours in line for food or shopping, but when it comes to reading something forget it. Same goes to forecasting...constructing an excellent forecast requires a great deal of time and detail. Forecasters who spend the time to look over all variables and use knowledge to determine "what makes the most sense" are going to be more accurate than those who don't. Forecasting now is almost becoming a joke b/c it's just rip and read off a few products and go from there.

We'll be tracking severe wx in June and people will still be holing out hope for a pattern change and snow

yeah the Swanzey one which happened like 10:00 AM in 2008 2012 I think even had a couple in CT from that same event could even go back to 2007 (which had the supercells on June 5) and 2006 (derecho in August and a major event July 18 that was April I think...went to the Baseball HOF that day...if we're thinking same event

ughhhh that's what I thought but I edited and revered them. My memory isn't what it used to be. I'm going to re-edit back so it's correct

The past decade has been pretty solid for severe too. 2008 was wild with the cold pool hail events (that year alone accounted for like 15% of NYS hail reports...from 1950-2008). 2009 sucked 2010 had back-to-back tornado watch days 2011 had June 1st 2012 I don't remember 2013 I think was the year CT had the 4 weak tornadoes in July (though this could be argued it was the same tornado that kept jumping) 2014 don't remember 2015 don't remember 2016 we had that major outbreak in February 2017 I think this was a second half of summer driven with the nocturnal lightning producing events 2018 had May 15 then September/October was kinda wild. Tied record year for tornadoes in CT 2019 kinda sucked actually 2020...Going to Oklahoma!!!!!!

Thank God social media didn't exist then

Is that not even 10'' just before 1940? ouch

1937-1938 looked like a poop winter

About the time of year where we transition from 384-hr snow maps to 384-hour CAPE maps..well you have to hover over each hour b/c obviously there is no "total cape". With that here's 318-hours

Waters off Africa are quite warm...just based off of looking seems like you have to go back to 2016 to find similar anomalies at the same time frame. I think that was an active Cape Verde season? If that persist into the summer with ENSO neutral or ENSO negative...maybe an active Atlantic season. Anyways, sometimes I like staring at these maps (though haven't done so in a while) and think about how these anomalies help to shape and configure the pattern and what relation/role they have in some of the major oscillations/teleconnections.

Excellent post...true and very valid points. I have read that regarding those wildfires...I guess what seemed to be the larger concern was how these intense fires started well before their "actual" wildfire season...?

I strongly agree here...in fact, I think one could argue that the result of some of what is going on is tied into the balance trying to be re-stored. I know the Earth goes through cycles and the Earth has gone through periods of extreme warmth before...but when you account for the population now compared to back then the scale of the impacts are much more extreme. Obviously it can be argued whether humans are directly related to the changes in climate or not...but whether humans are to blame doesn't really change the fact that changes in climate are resulting in significant disruptions to lives/nature. Australia is a great example...now perhaps centuries or thousands of years ago the Hadley cell went through a similar shift to what is occurring now and human-induced climate change isn't to blame...but that's minute. At the end of the day millions of people and wildlife are being impacted.

Yes it's increased but still well below what it should be. Meanwhile, in Antarctica ice sheets bigger than big cities are breaking off. anyways, I know this stuff belongs in climate change (and for obvious reasons) but this is always a subject that people will agree-to-disagree on but at the end of the day people's opinions on the subject mean absolute crap b/c what is occurring will continue to occur whether people want to believe it or not. People's opinions aren't going to change how climate will continue to evolve moving forward or that ramifications it will have.