weatherwiz

Moreso due to the lack of directional change on either side of the boundary. The greater the difference in wind direction (degrees) the greater the convergence. For example, typically we'll see SW, S, or SW flows ahead of an approaching cold front with winds more W, NW, or WNW behind the cold front...this usually results in increased convergence (and lift) along/just ahead of the front which helps to generate convection.

This weekend's weather is actually a bit complex. I'm not totally enthused with convective potential (though isolated convection certainly possible) given the Northwesterly flow through the column which should reduce low-level convergence and raise some issues with boundary layer and low-level moisture. In terms of prospective dewpoints this is very interesting because the synoptic look isn't one to favor the advection of higher dewpoints into the region, however, given the placement of the high pressure which looks to be centered across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states could promote moisture working up through the upper-Midwest and transporting into our region from the northwest...which is how we will also get our warmth. But with a predominately NW flow it could be a challenge getting dewpoints up there...especially during peak-mixing hours. There could be a very brief window of pooling ahead of the front though.

I get drunk just from watching them

This is a freaking joke

Well we are going to probably be mixing well beyond 850mb but just using 18z GFS bufkit for BDL...probably would have to mix into the 660mb level to hit 90 both Wednesday and Thursday. Actually thought the potential looked a bit better to hit 90 Thursday yesterday than it did today. Wednesday though does have the potential for a NW wind component so that could help tack on a few degrees.

My A/C is Mother Nature. If she hot, I’m hot. If she could, I’m cold

Saw a flash of lightning!!!!

Haven’t seen any lightning yet but hearing thunder. Don’t think there’s any CG’s

Babysitting for my brother and girlfriend in new Britain and thunderstorm developing overhead!!!!!!!!! I can hear the thunder!!!!

Very well put. It was a few years back when Steve made a comment about people and the use of A/C's...it sparked a weenie in my brain. It's a no wonder people can't tolerate "heat". I mean I get when it gets above 90 and certainly 100...that's intense, especially when you have humidity. I guess even if you have some humidity when it's in the 80's...ok whatever. But people coup themselves up inside with A/C's blaring, probably don't have humidifiers so the air is bone dry so what happens when you go outside and it's 85/65...OG COURSE IT'S GOING TO FEEL "HOT". That has to be so bad for your immune system too...going from those two different type of environments so quickly. I mean think about it...you're driving and have the A/C blaring and your destination is the store, house, restaurant, etc...you get out of the car and are exposed to the sexy summer weather, then you go back inside to a climate controlled environment...all in the span of probably minutes...that's gotta be a shock on the immune system or the body. Our bodies are probably like, "Can you please pick something, we're trying to adjust here".

yeah the HRRR is a bit active today. small hail too perhaps

This is something that is definitely gaining more traction as the population size of such examples increases.

It's so funny how people run to the A/C at the first sight of "warm".

what about the 1878 Wallingford, CT tornado?

90 is a possibility at BDL Thursday. There is something about these well-mixed airmasses that gives me tingles. Actually could see some high fire danger

Might have to fly to ND or SD next weekend!

That would be Kurt Angle

The PV remains quite strong and on the southern side of the Pole...watching the evolution of the 500 heights through the end of the Euro run it seems like that feature is just strong enough/placed south enough to where it flattens the top of the ridge and just prevents those higher thicknesses from getting into our region but yeah...if that feature relaxes or weakens or whatever and that PNA signal holds...we are going to scorch quickly and ramp up those dews.

That is one interesting height configuration for next week. Wednesday (on the Euro) could be...HOT. Could be near 90 days at BDL and maybe mid 90's as far north as like EWR. End of the week is interesting too as it looks like another pump poleward in heights at 500, however, the sfc depiction is a little kinky with the isobars indicating shallow backdoor front potential. Also looks like we could see our first Great Plains siggy severe threat of the season too...which has strong PNA support

I just saw that Looks like Louisiana picking up right where they left off in terms of tropical

That is quite telling. I mean just a month ago MI was one of the worst hot spots in the country.

There is backdoor cold front potential next weekend...although not sure it's backdoor by definition but pretty decent signal for a N-S moving cold front late next week

Gotcha. So in this sense this basically is probably determined by BL decoupling which is another challenge in itself. Hell, it only takes a brief period of de-coupling for temps to just drop and then boom...climb right back up when coupling re-occurs.

That's a pretty interesting theory and makes sense when you break it down like that. If we think about the Earth's radiation budget, there is typically a net surplus closer to the equator and a net deficit closer to the Arctic region and in the essence of balance the net surplus equals the net deficit and boom...you have a balanced Earth energy budget...but with the idea of global warming this balance is probably not so balanced anymore. Anyways got a bit off topic but the idea I'm getting at is to what you were saying...theoretically if we're storing more energy during the diurnal cycle, for some sort of balance to be restored, just as much energy needs to be released in the radiative process. What would be a super interesting study is taking a collection of nights where radiative cooling occurs and temperature readings at the lowest surface elevations within that area and then record temperatures at surrounding higher elevations. As we know with radiative cooling, lower elevations tend to be colder than higher elevations (resulting in an inversion). Just from observations, there seem to be times where the temperature gradient between a lower elevation and higher elevation could be pretty steep...you could essentially probably measure the "release" of radiation based off the temperature gradient