weatherwiz
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Ahhh...I think orange means a tornado watch may be considered
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I remember trying to search once and didn’t find anything. I know I wrote it down but no clue where I put it. O
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Maybe orange had to do with potential for significant gusts? I wonder if there is a documentation somewhere lol
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Well it’s not really SPc call...local offices get final say or a big say
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Does anyone remember what the colors of the MCD indicate again? Forgot what Chris said. Blue = svr red = tor purple = could be either orange ?
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There is a some drier air pushing east in the mlvls.
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Yeah it is. the OKX sounding forecasts right around 2000 J MLCAPE later on...which would be pretty significant. SPC mentions 1000-1500...I think if it became apparent 2000 was going to realize over a large area we would see an enhanced risk (for damaging wind...maybe hail)
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The HRRR continues to be all over. Anyways some notes... The 12z OKX sounding was pretty damn impressive looking IMO. Looking at BUF/PIT soundings there are the hints of the strengthening mlvl flow too. Satellite/radar is a little on the concerning side with a line of activity developing across PA/SE NY.
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I'm almost starting to wonder if tomorrow may actually offer the best potential
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Glad we don't live there
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It is complex indeed. I agree with you regarding the forcing. I keep debating this in one in my head, but I can see two things; 1) The lack of the strongest forcing could help with discrete cell development here 2) The forcing is just too weak...but with enough buoyancy we get development but it struggles to grow vertically.
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When I was driving into work this morning I was getting onto Rt. 9 from 84 in West Hartford and I saw the flash to the NW. Plenty of blue sky...or much more than I thought anyways here in Branford. Satellite doesn't look horrific.
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the mesos have been pretty horrific the past week with convection...not just here in the Northeast either. So much inconsistency...anyways I think there is room today to get some discrete cells going. CT could actually be a hot spot today
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If we can punch some dry air into the mid-levels (enough anyways) could be a widespread wind event
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Signals are conflicting...there is a chance they could be like 6-6.5...which is not bad for around here but they could be closer to 5.5 if there is a lot of crap. Anyways...as long as we can destabilize and not have to worry about that the high dews should compensate
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TORs for all
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Going to be a tight window but it could be pretty widespread...even despite the weak mid-level lapse rates. Not to beat the bat with the dead horse, but if we are able to get 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...I think that's the magic value. Where's @OceanStWx been????????????
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yes, I think so. I think our best window is early on...so we're going to want to start with sun...I don't think we need a ton of sunshine so we don't need sunny skies...but we want to get MLCAPE over 2000 and 3km CAPE over 125 J...and maybe we could get away with closer to 100 J of 0-3km CAPE.
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storm motion actually looks like it might be with the flow too so that could decrease tornado potential
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Really about as as good as it gets around here. One downside is above 1km winds are mainly unidirectional so any tornado potential will be confined to discrete cells...and the window for these may be small. Anyways, we could see a few wet microbusts tomorrow
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ORH county NE into southern NH may be in a maximized zone for tornado potential tomorrow...obviously assuming the NAM is handling things correctly. This is what I' thinking... If we are able to see 2000-2500 MLCAPE...it will be a pretty big event. I want to see bufkit soundings and see what is has for 0-3km CAPE but if we can get around 125-150...that will be pretty eye opening
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The NAM is a legit tornado threat tomorrow. Not sure how big the window is...might be small...it's also a highly complex set-up
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The NAM looks solid out your way. Another chapter to James book coming?
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I think I should be in excellent position to get out west within the next few years. I think come 2021 I will be eligible for two weeks of vacation and by that point I'll have a few big bills paid off so I can put aside a decent amount of money. I've even thought about holding off until later in the summer...everyone gets so pumped for the spring and you get all the chaser convergence but August can offer up some pretty awesome severe chances out that way...this time of year can be rather underrated.
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