weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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NAM/GFS/euro look to get the Cape pretty good. Looks like euro has gusts 50-60+ knots
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TWC tweeted they are in contact with Josh!!! He is safe
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There was a post on twitter which showed the area of the school Josh was in...if that indeed is the area...idk. Very sick feeling in my stomach right now.
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I hope those warming cloud tops around the center of Dorian are indicating the eye is trying to re-organize. Looks like cloud tops are cooling too on the SE side of the eye and with bands wrapping around SW side.
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That is gut wrenching. How the heck do you survive that? ughhh
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Turtle's name is also spelled Eleanor
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That does look like a decent structure...hopefully there was not significant flooding there but from the few videos out there not sure how likely that is. Josh certainly knows what he’s doing though and I’m sure he had a backup to a backup to a backup al planned out and if he sensed danger he would quickly react
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It seems like most of that information is just rumors and speculation. I spent a good chunk of the night reading around and looking for info but there never seems to be a direct source the info is coming from.
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Ughh. I know in this past sometimes it’s been days since word but. I hope he’s alright :/
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Without shifting through the tropical thread any updated word on Josh?
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oh yeah...I think into SNE is unlikely...but re-strengthening over the Atlantic and making additional landfall across the mid-Atlantic coast somewhere is certainly possible.
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12z GFS bufkit for MCO is a disaster. Over 10'' of rain and winds gusting over 70 knots for quite a duration
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I don't think such a scenario is completely outlandish...as crazy as that looks...maybe not to that extent but look at the upper pattern...there are no real troughs or fronts which move through...there isn't anything to steer it. The upper flow aloft also looks to generate some weaknesses and it gets captured.
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Based on what just happened with Puerto Rico a turned certainly can't be ruled out. Looks like this idea is related to the forward speed of Dorian. the 12z guidance though has a pretty strong clustering with this though. Steering flow looks to bring it right into FL too...but any weaknesses within the upper pattern could certainly change things.
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I highly doubt the airport would be open Monday if current projections hold.
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The rainfall potential here scares me...I wouldn't be surprised to see some 15-25'' rainfall amounts. That would be catastrophic. Heck, even storm surge has me a bit worried.
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Could be very bad news for parts of FL. Some of the scenarios are pretty worrisome too with Dorian just stalling (which is a very real possibility) and dumping very significant rainfall totals. Could be very bad news...especially with coastal flooding/storm surge
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WTF with the last 3-4 pages Maybe Donald Trump should just nuke this thread instead
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Thanks for the shout out @CT Rain!
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I heard Lamont is now looking to tax storm photos and videos
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Yup...just checked. Not a bad estimate lol
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Interested to check after what BDL recorded for a gust. Was some decent gusts before the rain...I would estimate 25-30 knots. Some pretty close CG’s too
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Looks like 30-40 mph gusts possible. Only radar with a read in velocity is ENX which sucks b/c it’s a bit far
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The CAMs were concerning but they had been terrible the past week. When I saw shear increasing late with the spike in instability I had a solid feeling
