weatherwiz

You know what I'm curious about...if the loading pattern for the AO is defined by 1000mb SLP why are 500 height anomaly/height fields used to characterize the sign/strength of the AO? anyways...looking at the projected SLP anomalies/500mb height anomalies...I'm not entirely sure the structure of the +AO would just equate to big warmth up to our latitudes. I'm assuming this projected index is being driven by the anomalously low SLP anomalies around Greenland and extending into eastern Canada...southward displaced SLP anomalies try extending to our latitudes, but it is a big fight with the southern ridge. You also have a -PNA signal which is going to try and pump up the heights...it's almost like the AO signal is so strong/displaced that it actually prevents warmth from sustaining into October...somewhat of a similar fashion to where extremely -NAO's which are south displaced yields above-average heights poking into NNE

Outside of that stretch in late May I believe it's been another fairly quiet season overall...although not sure of the exact numbers. I've seen an awesome graphic floating around twitter at times which shows up-to-date confirmed tornado count for each state but I'm not sure where that graphic comes from.

There could be a pretty sizable severe event late weekend/beginning of next week across central US

I think things are on-track for today...perhaps a narrow corridor across south-central ME for a large hailer and/or damaging downburst.

Saturday certainly has potential for mid-to-upper 80's in the warmest locations. Lots of factors though to consider.

GFS bufkit looks pretty decent there...def quite close to blizzard conditions for a bit. Mountains are going to get smoked.

First tornado warning issued by the Phoenix office today in 5 years!!

Whoops...sorry. Thought it said 2M temps lol. I see what it is now. Anyways that still only reflects through October 3rd and changes happen after that

I would love to head out to AZ/NM for t’storms. From what I’ve seen in terms of pics/videos it’s a very underrated area to chase. Yeah the flip flops have been brutal...been quite difficult to really get a handle on things

WOAH!!!! Pretty sick supercell in AZ north of PHX

1) why are you using 2M temp anomalies to characterize ridging/trough? 2) You have to be careful when using just 2M temp anomalies...you get above-average temps at night with average daytime temps and the anomaly is going to be heavily skewed. 3) That is also through Oct 3 which doesn't reflect when the ridging begins to break down

the ridge looks to break down moving into October

IDK...I think October has a shot to come in below-average. There are some pretty strong signals for some pretty impressive ridging developing out west and the northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns seem to favor an opportunity for some big troughing in the east. I think October will be weird in that there will be some pretty hectic fluctuations where we get brief spurts of above-average...maybe even solidly above-average but the cold shots will be pretty impressive.

yeah I'm paying attention to that pretty closely. Some locations could get smoked pretty good it looks like. Perhaps another opportunity too just a few days later.

We should get a couple of pretty impressive cold shots during the first week of October. Might also get off to an early winter across the northern-tier of the country too...could be some pretty early season snow chances. I also wouldn't rule out the shot at a decent svr event...maybe not us but back into PA/NY heading into October.

Looks like the first winter storm of the season out west this weekend (looks like mostly MT...some accumulating snow even down to the valley floor.

That 2007-2008 season was pretty wild. If I remember correctly didn't the pattern that season switch in a heartbeat? It wasn't a transition type change...it was a full blown full court press change. Wasn't there an overperfomring clipper too on NYE?

Per usual we'll probably get into late October or November and social media will start becoming a cesspool with winter cancel garbage. I don't get why so many are so quick to react and go on the ledge. As we have seen with some of the more recent winters things can change very quickly and a back loaded winter is not all that hard to fathom. Heading into the fall now though there are several features which at least yield some promise moving into the winter.

A rather significant s/w will be slowly pushing east through ME Tuesday afternoon. Associated with this s/w will be pretty impressive jet dynamics and a cold pool aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates. Surface dewpoints will only be in the mid-to-upper 50's which will limit instability potential, however, the combination of temperatures into the lower 70's and steep mid-level lapse rates may result in 250-500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Given degree of shear/cold air aloft, scattered showers and t'storms should develop very early in the afternoon. The stronger cores will be capable of strong winds as cores collapse along with some hail...perhaps even a few large hailers. This will be predominately ME...maybe northern NH.

What kind of spider is this? Web is funnel weaver like, but that spider seems a little big for a funnel weaver

MOS sucks... Actually I sort of suck. Tomorrow is Thursday...had wrong time up...anyways it still sucks

I wonder what's been going on with COD...they've been having some serious issues lately...especially with 6z models. the run just gets stuck

This might be one of the bigger Euro vs. GFS ever Regardless of sfc depiction...the pattern configuration advertised on both is enough to keep eyes open

It's something I think about from time to time. Like if something like a 1938 happened. I know on here we joke around about damage and all want to see that big weather event happen but if a 1938 happened today it could be quite bad. In a group text chat I'm in with some friends there are a few who live on Long Island and one of them was saying that some time ago (don't know when) there was this published report that stated if they ever had to evacuate Long Island due to a hurricane or whatever they couldn't do it...wouldn't be possible. I'm sure the word would definitely get out there but would it be portrayed correctly and would people actually listen? Hell...stores become hell when the forecast is for 5'' of snow...WTF would happen if the word is power outages for several days or weeks?

Yeah Jose. What's funny is I think that ended up being a "closer call" after the fujiwara Anyways what makes me nervous about this is the lead time to warn people may not be very much..not saying anything major is going to happen but this is a perfect place to bring up the topic. If/when we do get a big hit...the chaos alone is going to be disastrous. You would hope there could be a good 7-8 day lead time...but realistically the lead time may only be 3-4 days...that's just not enough.