weatherwiz

Saturday has tornado potential across parts of NY/PA if llvl winds back enough

ORH is absolutely hitting 80 on Saturday...only need to mix to around 4300' or so. Good SW flow and mixing ahead of the front and doesn't look like clouds will be an issue. Next week ahead of that front could be quite warm to even hot (for the time of year).

Only like mid 50's here...but certainly enough to have the heat on...well moreso the defroster b/c the windows are all condensated up in the morning.

warm? It's pretty chilly. Hate this time of year. Heat on in the car during the morning and then A/C during the day. Have had to use heat several times the last few weeks.

Might actually even be like $12 - $14 per pack. My aunt quit in the early 90's I think she said. they were only a few dollars per pack...she said when she would be out at the bar sometimes she would go through 3 in a night. But I think it's disgusting how the government is able to get away with just increasing and implementing these taxes...I guess maybe b/c the industry is too powerful to be shut down(?) and so it's a method installed in hopes people will quit b/c they can't afford it or whatever...idk but to just make money off of people's addictions.

Hoping the timing will give us a severe threat!!!

It's crazy the amount of people who use vaps now...I'd have to say like 90%+ of the people I hang out with from school all have a juul or whatever other products exists. I totally get the movement to ban them...but at the end people are going to do what they want and as long as these products are in existence people are going to have access to them. What is really disgusting is how the government handles cigarettes...they are making an absolute killing on cigarette taxes. The argument of raising cigarette taxes to get people to quit is total nonsense...they understand how addictive nicotine is and it's disgusting how they just make money of this sickness. Several years back my mom (who smokes) was talking to store clerk about cigarettes and they were like if it wasn't for the taxes a pack of cigarettes in CT would be like $3 or something...they're like $10 - $12 I think?

I just realized occluded fronts are purple b/c red and blue make purple!

There were 8 reports yesterday...including half-dollar size!!!

This is insane. I wonder if some parts of NNE end as some flakes or mix with grauple with this FROPA

Anyways should be fun at GTF Saturday morning with blizzard conditions. Just imagine a bit farther west and even higher up!!

If things align properly Tuesday could be an active severe day from OH into WV, PA, MD, and maybe into NJ.

wow...5 1'' hail reports today in ME...not bad!

Here we go!

That may not be there only funnel cloud report either!!!

Looks like Karen is defining an eye

Do you know how hard it is to get an observed Funnel cloud??? This calls for celebration

OHHHH!!! I've been waiting to catch one of these live!!! Funnel cloud report

100+ knot MLJ streak moving into theta-e air > 340K...that could be fun

I also see some severe potential here around October 3rd...spot on for the 40th anniversary of 10/3/79

They are going to get CRUSHED in MT...this could actually be a pretty long duration event too...though maybe separate systems but wow...

This made a ton of sense. I totally forgot that the CDC and CPC use slight variations in some of the methodologies. I have done some reading up on EOF's but I wish I was way better at math then I am (I still have zero clue how I made it through all the Calc) so I could completely understand even use them. I've always, always wanted to create bi-weekly values...I know at the end of the day the structure and placement of the anomalies are most critical, however, there is value I think in an indexed value. With this I think having a bi-weekly value can maybe provide some more light then an index averaged over a month. I think it will capture better those transitional periods and using the index as a number-visual you can go back and analyze those periods and perhaps be a boost in the research department. they do offer daily values and you would think just take the daily values and total up 14 days and divide by 14...but that won't work. I've taken monthly daily values, totaled up, and divided by the days in the month and the value does not equal the monthly reading. Anyways I'm not sure if EOF methodology would help in this department or if some sort of standardization needs to be done.

Can't totally rule that out...there are a few members which start making a hook left down the road.

Pretty interesting IR past few hours