weatherwiz

WOW... the SPC went from 5% wind and <2% TOR with the 13z outlook to 15% hatched wind and 5% TOR with the 1630z outlook across the MO Valley into IL

I wish I understood MT and AAM better..well all the different torques and applying them and enough to make plots.

Could be an opportunity for a few strong t'storms to work into southern VT, NW MA...maybe even southern NH.

OMG...I want that!!!

That needs to be a tee-shirt.

Well said. subsequently why the term is stupid

It's similar to using terms like warm, cool, cold, hot. Would you call 73 in July warm? no would you call 73 in January warm? yes

THIS!!! Although this is why the term torch is kinda stupid...there is no scientific definition to it so it's completely open to interpretation. Person A may think torch only applies to a temperature threshold (say 90+) while person B applies it to a deviation from the average. At the end of the day it should really be applied to a deviation.

Departures from the past week have been pretty decent: I remember back in August I was saying I think September could be the warmest on record across many sites...obviously that is not panning out...and not even close. I thought the pattern we've seen the past week was going to be more predominant this month but it didn't work out that way...delayed but not denied I guess.

It is going to rip at GTF for many hours Saturday night through Sunday. Although there will be some dry air/subsidence screw zones. Some moose will be unhappy

I've always been extremely curious about how this works. Perhaps @OceanStWx has gone into great depth about this before, but when it comes to these snow map, if they are all computer generated with human tweaks, how exactly are they derived? Is it a blend of numerous forecast models, an in-house model, one particular model? And what algorithms are used in them...or are they just derived from the model snowfall algorithms (like 10:1 ratio or Kucheria). But then with the human tweaking...across this region that can't be particularly easy, especially if you have little experience/knowledge of the terrain and geographical influences.

I do agree...mobile version has not been very friendly, particularly with formatting the past few months (maybe longer). Whenever there are images posted it throws the mobile all out of whack. I've also noticed that sometimes when you post it saves what you posted in the text box and you have to clear editor.

maybe you had too much to drink?

Major props goes out to the NWS (well anyone who forecasts) forecasters out west (like CO, WY, MT, ID) when it comes to forecasting snow totals...like HTF do they do it? Especially with regards to the sharp elevation changes and just knowing terrain and its influences. It can't be easy to derive a map like this. It would be awesome to learn how to forecast snowfall across these places.

I miss the mountains of VT A friend of mine and his family have this cabin right outside of Westminster West...I didn't get to go this summer but the view from his cabin is breathtaking.

Might have to spark up a low CAPE/high shear svr thread at some point this weekend for next week!!!

Well you're in VT... Again it's all relative to where people live. For so many years the whole back-and-forth argument between folks that live farther south and folks that live further north with regards to "torch" and "warmth" is just ridiculous...and in fact the word "torch" is stupid to begin with. Anyways...let's take a look at Saturday and forgetting where people live and taking into account what climo is... 1) Climo... Your climo is right around 60 or 30...looks like highs will be pretty close to 70...maybe even lower 70's (relative to climo that's pretty dang warm). BDL is right around 70 (just shy perhaps) and temps down this way will be well into the 80's...relative to climo that is pretty dang warm. 2) 850 temperature anomalies look to be greater than +5 SD above the average...that is pretty remarkable. So based on this...it doesn't matter where you live in New England...knowing that we're going to see some decent sun and mixing ahead of this...relative to everyone's climo it's going to be warm.

There have been some signals for some TC development in the Gulf within the next 10-14 days.

I had a dream the other night we had a severe wx event...I don't remember all the details but I think I was in Danbury and there were tornado warnings and even a tornado right outside. But I couldn't get to it b/c I couldn't get my shoes tied

75-90 sounds perfect to me. Actually 75 is a little on the cool side. Make it 80 and I'm happy

ohhh!!! Thanks...didn't even really pay attention for our area today. I have nothing going on after work so maybe chasing!!!!!!

sweet thanks.

How did you find the specific year? Also looks like the record in October happened pretty late in the month...20C to be exact on the 23rd

I'm thinking 86-88 at BDL Saturday. Though it seems like there is an inversion just below 5,000' which prevents deeper mixing. If that feature is overdone or can be overcome then BDL will hit 90.