weatherwiz

Not a record for ORH? What’s the record

Izzy finally came home

Small microburst around Hudson

Does anyone know where the SSTA data for each Nino region was moved to? There was a link which went back to 1950 and I think one that dated back even farther (definitely looking for this one). EDIT: got it...had an error in my link!

Finally able to bring home the dog today but this is going to be a scorcher drive. I currently don't have A/C in my car and my gf car is in the shop. A little worried about this with the dog but we'll just have to drive with the front windows open and hope the drive on the highway will at least make it feel cooler in the car.

Let's shoot for 45

Hopefully one of many

I have to agree with this. Perhaps there is some sort of relationship with how EL Nino's evolve during the summer and what we experience during the summer in terms of big heat or not, but strong(er) EL Nino events don't really become mature until we're in the dead of summer or even back half of summer. If anything, I would think the correlation would start showing as we moved into Fall

NBM not backing down at BDL tomorrow...13z run still throwing up 95

One underrated aspect that is going to suck about the RRFS replacing the various meso models is it runs MUCH slower

yup...north today, south tomorrow. damn. NAM came back down to Earth too with the mlvl lapse rates...had a feeling it was a bit too aggressive with the steeper lapse rates. DCAPE not bad though...probably see some scattered wind damage reports tomorrow along that swath you mentioned

Not too mention the BL flow becoming a bit more westerly...which may be related more to a faster FROPA. Looks like better convergence towards the south coast

3km is a shutout tomorrow and the HRRR has development from eastern PA moving across NJ, southern CT, and southern RI lol. 3km probably ran using Breslow's algorithm

3km liking southern VT/NH into northern ORH County today

lmao guidance for BDL tomorrow MAV: 84 MET: 84 NBM: 95 (though showing a 3hr max of 88)

Tonight may even end up a few degrees warmer

Was sitting outside enjoying the night and got all bit up by mosquitos

AWT

AWT

The RRFS is decent too, just a bit later with timing

I think we'll see widespread storms...should see a solid line evolve ahead of the front. Only question is whether damaging wind gust potential is rather isolated or more scattered

Ninja'd was just commenting on the NAM/mlvl lapse rates. The NAM is definitely pretty intriguing. Would actually see a pretty solid line drift south and it occurrs during peak heating

The NAM is actually pretty interesting for Wednesday. Would suggest a threat for scattered damaging wind gusts, particularly south of the Pike. The NAM has a large area of steeper mid-level lapse rates overhead, shunting south during the day (hence south of the Pike favored). Not sure I totally buy this though...the NAM seems to have a tendency for having these areas of steeper lapse rates...but a big player in this is whether the airmass over the OV is convectively overturned tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Shear is pretty decent along with height falls and looks like we get enough heating to drive up the llvl lapse rates

Yeah I would not be shocked to see some heat advisories tossed out this afternoon

Great point on this...strength of the flow certainly does factor in. Also, in this case as least that boundary is probably so shallow and weak that its just totally mixing out