weatherwiz

I get it...100% and believe me...I'm pissed off too. But there comes a point where expectations versus reality become blended and that's when expectations start becoming well...unrealistic. And this is where for the most part, some people are kind of doing it to themselves by getting suck into guidance which goes bonkers in the medium range and developing a sense as that is a possible expectation. And then marrying extended EPS charts because they show deep blues at H5 and correlating that to potential and expecting active times. It sucks...we're in a cycle in which it just sucks here but we will break out of it eventually...have some phenomenal years for a several year stretch and then revert back to this.

Yeah its way too early to be cancelling anything. I mean what's climo right now...probably ranging from 2-5" and of course probably even under 2" closer towards the coast. Not having snow on the ground on Dec. 9 doesn't mean winter is cancelled or winter will be bad.

Makes total sense...that's along the lines of what I was figuring you were getting at.

I like this idea of assessment here. Focus on potential versus snowfall. But I guess one challenge with using something as potential threats...I feel like that can be quite subjective. There would have to be solid baseline definition of what is defined as a possible threat. But I would certainly prefer to measure a season on potential events and number of events versus something like snowfall alone.

Yes, bad luck in the sense of the end result for us and precisely why the thinking of "well I'll take my odds with plenty of chances" is kind of pointless. Big deal if it happens once out of every 100 chances. Why does it even matter what guidance has in the 96-120 hr window...who cares if its showing a bit better with ridging in region x or that its a bit sharper with the lead shortwave, yada yada yada...the end result is generally 99% of the time always going to be the same and that is a reflection of the state and regime which will dictate the final outcome

Exactly why we need to get back to patterns which are southern stream dominant with weaker northern streams which phase in...bring back the storms riding up the coast. Forget this whole "we can do well in northern stream" crap. Maybe there was a winter or two where it worked out and that's what people cling too...just like for the longest time everyone was obsessed with weak La Nina's because of 1995-1996.

From a common sense perspective that makes sense, but it clearly isn't playing out that way so there must be some sort of meteorological reasoning. We can attribute it to "bad luck" but the atmosphere doesn't work on luck, the atmosphere and weather are governed by principles, physics, etc. The atmosphere is telling us a story and we need to dive deep into the woods to figure out this story. I really hope deep in the modeling and physics worlds, there is work being done to better understand how/why the atmosphere has evolved these last few years...why these faster flow, why models are struggling with it. The only way forecast models can improve on this is if we better understand the process and then taking that knowledge and translating that into mathematical language so computer forecast models can understand it. There clearly is a reason as to why things just aren't working out and we do have some basic ideas and knowledge into this, but hoping for things to play out in favor just because the chances seem to be there isn't meteorologically correct. We are seeing the same thing over and over...fast flow, certain guidance over amplifying in specific time ranges, a whole lot of models guidance swings inside 72 hours...there are reasons for this.

you're right. January 5th is the latest sunrise (~7:19 AM) then it gets earlier from there. Its like the 10th/11th when we start gaining by the minutes

Actually after going through the last few winters...I would much rather than one shortwave every 10 days. There clearly is meteorological reasonings and physics involved as to why these fast flows with many shortwaves just don't pan out. I legit am starting to believe the mindset now of "rather having many shortwaves and hoping it pans out" is just a defensive mechanism to try and bring hope to something which just isn't there.

I think its even later than that actually...like closer to Jan 10?

This is sick

Will feel like summer

Challenge is the schedule has been absolutely insane with the league having to adjust for the two week break. Maybe play him every other game or something. But with the way the D has been crushed with injuries I don’t think they can afford to have him just play 10-15 minutes a game

Agreed

I don’t think Mcavoy should be coming back this soon, but I think he is trying to get a spot on the Olympic team. But he lost 20 pounds and I don’t think is still able to eat solid food. I can’t see him being able to play the 23:46 he’s averaging a game.

I hope getting this cold out of the way now means that we warm up late February or March otherwise this is going to be long and grueling.

Assuming the NHL has some private meteorologists, I’m sure they have their fingers crossed looking at this and are rooting for a GFS like solution for New Years. Who schedules outdoor hockey games in southern Florida? Idk if it’s January.

Don’t care when it happens but I hope the pattern does relax some and reloads. But watch the time period of when/if this occurs because that could offer up a KU chance. As to what happens after the re-load…who knows but apply some tweaks to this pattern and we could be in for some times in January

I love the Winter Storm Watches that get hoisted in the midwestern states for 1-2" of snow with winds gusting 50-70 mph. That has to be epic

If this piece of PV energy that's closed off could even dig into the base of the trough just a tick earlier this would allow for LP to explode just south of Long Island. Might actually be some room to get the Cape a decent whack out of this

Our best chance for something bigger later this month is hoping for any PV lobes to phase in with the northern stream. Just picking a random time frame just to illustrate but the PV is forecast to become quite large which will benefit us in the since that every now and then we'll get pieces of PV lobes tossed our way. But I feel like overall we need to weaken the PV and that may help relax the flow a bit. But there is also extremely uncertainty with how the AO evolves the second half of this month

Someone could probably do better from weatherbell or something but this is from weathermodels (don't see of anyway you can just select frames like you can on cod) and this goes way too quickly lol. Anyways, there are subtle differences between the Euro and GFS (GFS a bit more amplified with the ridge) but the subtle differences have a significant impact on the evolution. This is precisely why these patterns are extremely difficult to forecast in. The most subtle of differences can mean the difference between a 4-8" event and a C-2" lol.

I just hope its right but the models have struggled greatly within this domain.

I guess this is the feature to watch over the next day or two (Coming out of the Aleutians). How this evolves in the next 48 hours will likely tell us whether the ridge will amplify or not

I think the framework the follow up wave sets up is way more important than worrying about whatever the ridge in the West will do. This how the west ridging will unfold game the last few years has done absolutely nothing. We've countless times seen models trend well with that inside 96-120 hours...only for a total slap back in the other direction, even inside 72 hours. I am willing to bet by 12z guidance Wednesday, we see guidance scale back with that ridging.