weatherwiz

you have good llvl WAA moving into sub-freezing llvl temps. Elevated areas east certainly in line for some decent accumulations.

I think we need to watch for this to really blossom and just in enough time for a narrow zone of heavy snow to impact those areas I mentioned. Have to check out some 12z bufkit soundings for ORH and IJD and see what they show for lift/snow growth.

We'll see how this evolves in time for the NW Hills but I'm hedging towards highest amounts from Worcester County in northeast Connecticut with about 2-4''...I think there is a low probability someone could pull off a 5 or 6'' total.

Southeast of 84 is probably cooked. I think you should be in line for a good 1-2'' and maybe upwards of 3 depending on exactly how quickly this strengthens. One thing to watch Wednesday is how high temperatures get too. Temperatures could struggle (away from the coast) to get much above the upper 30's. Cloud cover will increase so temperatures won't drop much during the evening. Certainly elevations will be favored for 3-4'' of snow but most should at least a good coating to 1'' (away from the coast).

Yeah I'd imagine one must have a ton of different links and data sources saved that you're constantly checking daily. But ultimately, just assessing model guidance without accounting for the current state and understanding what is driving things...you're going to have an awfully difficult time in the accuracy department.

I really wish I had the time, or was fully involved with long-range and/or seasonal forecasting. It's so intriguing but at the same time incredibly frustrating. Just looking at ensembles and weeklies I feel like is a tiny fraction of what goes into such forecasting. This likely requires having immense knowledge of daily regimes across the globe, how the patterns across the globe are changing daily, and the background states and what the main drivers are.

Whatever happens, it will be great to get a region wide snowfall Wednesday night, even if its just a widespread C-2'' type deal.

Going to more to this... especially the farther south you are in the region. Obviously northern New England and higher elevations its much easier to snow, even in meh patterns or unfavorable storm tracks for those south in the region. You better cash in in the opportunities.

I don't care if its November 25th, December 8th, or February 10th...if the pattern you're in is supposedly favorable for snow and storms and you don't cash in during those periods...it's going to be awfully difficult to at least finish the season near average. Our seasons which are right around average and especially above-average, not only are we cashing in on the pattern but we're taking full advantage of it.

Have some flakes falling

We'll see, mid-month is intriguing, obviously closer to the coast there is still some unfavorable climo to contend with but at least there is a pretty low probability for a cutter. Just keep the period of interest now and then can focus on the details as we get closer. It's great seeing a pattern where northern stream energy is digging well into the southeast.

Yeah I just looked at it wasn’t much different. We’ll see a million different variations in how sharp it is and other details between now and next week.

whats so bad about 18z for the clipper

Fair

No, no, no

I'm pretty excited for the prospects for this. Not sure if this evolves in time to give everyone several inches but I could see a scenario where eastern sections have an opportunity for several inches.

This is great to see, a nice and simple H5 map without a million shortwaves. It's easy to identify what the main player will be Unlike the last several winters where we saw something like this

I wouldn't be surprised if this did blossom in time to give eastern areas a chance for something more. This thing could pick up a quite a bit of moisture tracking over the Great Lakes and that is some pretty impressive llvl warm air advection out ahead of it. There is also room for some quick, albeit minor amplification as the shortwave digs across our area evident by a jet streak which tries developing on the western edge of the shortwave.

Quite intrigued with Wednesday night/Thursday and I know Will, Scott, and a few others highlighted this period about a week ago. Probably even further enhances the weekend potential.

Not necessarily, not at all. First off, 10:1 is an arbitrary number which is essentially just a made up average. There is no true gauge of what the actual snowfall ratio is. If you get 1'' of QPF and lets say the model accurately predicts that and accurately predicts all snow and then spits out 10'' of snow. If you're snowgrowth and lift is crappy through the duration of the 1''...you're not getting 10'' of snow.

I would really love to witness some EPIC LES one day.

Which is dumb, that's not how snowfall or accumulations work. Snowgrowth and cloud processes are extremely important as is the degree of lift into the snowgrowth zone, wind, type of snowflakes (well that goes with snowgrowth) and thermal profile. These factor greatly into the snowfall ratio which also isn't a constant throughout the storm, the snowfall ratio is going to vary and sometimes greatly. You can't just assume ptype and multiply by 10 and none of these fancy algorithms factor in what's most important.

Incorrect x10000000000000

The lake effect snow is going to be epic

For sure. You also have H7 developing and closing off just off the Maine coast as the system is lifting northeast. I wouldn't be shocked if there are some 15-16'' totals