weatherwiz

Part of me thinks the GFS is a bit too aggressive with the warmth into SNE Wednesday. Coastal areas yes but I question how far north we'll see 50's surge.

I'm fine with that. I would like to get to see as many people as possible. Clarke's would be out for me but we can re-tackle Funky's after the New Year.

You don't see it too much around here but sometimes its a riot seeing what MOS/NBM has for some of the midwestern cities. You can sometimes see like a 15-20F difference in the forecast high or sometimes even the low. Not of course you would divulge into the details and should be able to develop a sense of what to expect but sometimes that along can't be enough if you don't understand the local climate.

I know at the end of the day when it comes to forecasting temperatures this does require a bit of effort if you want to be really accurrate and get within a degree or two. I know when I used to do the wxchallenge I used to spend like 30 minutes for the high/low temp Anyways, MOS/NBM have been atrocious the last month...not just here but across a good part of the country. I get they have limitations with specific patterns and such but these products can be downright embarrassing. Forecasting too cold at night when it doesn't get that cold, then when they forecast on the warmer side it ends up much colder. They will underperform on highs plenty of times and then rare times they underperform on highs when it didn't seem like that would be the case. It sucks when you have to solely use these products for temperatures because they're awful really.

I buy northern New England and the higher terrain of Mass coming out of mid-week with plowable accumulations. Have to watch for some powerful winds northeast coast of Maine too.

This is true...hopefully something that can work to our benefit once we get a bit deeper in the month and towards January.

I would favor something more in January or even February. Its after the holiday...still may be tough for kids in winter sports (I know basketball can run into March).

It seems like this has been a crazy theme the last several winters. Even when we are in a good pattern, we can't seem to get something to work and when we do get storms the trough axis develops just too far west and we're getting flow blown warm sector. Is it possible the warm waters are having a big influence in this? Part of me is curious on this but on the other hand, it's not like we see fronts and boundary's struggle to get off the coast but it seems that now consistently these type of setups cyclogenesis is just way too far west for us. Doesn't even seem to matter what the overall regime is, the evolution seems to gravitate towards this.

I plan on going but if there isn't enough of a turnout I'm fine with another date too.

Definitely going to give this a read, thank you! And that was something I was going to mention too...don't current NWP models already have some degree of AI integrated into them? But looks and sounds like that will be established in the paper.

Agree, poorly worded by me. I am definitely interested in reading literature on this and I am certainly open to having a completely different view on this. What really irks me though (and not just with AI) is these watered down articles and and all these claims made just to draw people in, especially from companies and organizations who profit on marketing stuff...you can make anything sound good and like the best thing ever and sell it to the average Joe.

That's possible but I mean if the accuracy is because it had temperatures of 88-90 (which verified) versus 84-86 which other models had...I can't see that being a huge impact on the power grid. I would want to know more details though. For example, say google AI was showing a large area of high temperatures in the 105-110 range at D10 and the GFS was a bit more muted...100-105. What preparations would be made differently within the energy industry, for example? Now...if we're talking where this was showing widespread 100+ while other models were like 70-80 and this 100+ is verifying...now that is noteworthy and certainly something more groundbreaking.

Want to clarify...I was calling the claim garbage, not the model or the work into it. If a claim is going to be made that a weather event was nailed 10 days our or 15 days out...at least indicate the model held true to that solution for each run leading up to that day. If google AI had a category 3 hitting SNE at D15 and it ended up occurring...if between it showed solutions ranging from OTS or into the mid-Atlantic, or a weak storm...well you can't say it "nailed it". That's what I am calling garbage

So it has greater skill with 2m temperature, sea-level pressure, and wind? That isn't exactly mind blowing, IMO.

I do want to invest some time to find any published, peer-reviewed papers which provide highly detailed analysis but IMO, much of this stuff is hyped up. All you hear about is a success story and within these success stories they fail to tell you about the non-successes. For example, if 10 storms were tracked and analyzed and the model nailed 1 of the 10...the story will be ran on that 1 and you'll get a title like you see here, "AI Weather Model masters 15-day Forecast"...but there will be nothing on the other 9. AI will probably help drastically improve short-term forecasting during extreme weather events, such as the flooding event that occurred in Connecticut back in August but I don't buy it will ever become more accurate overall with increasing time stamps. Weather, physics, chemical processes are all way too complex and I'm sorry but AI is not going to ever figure that out because there is way more to this than just what happened historically. That atmosphere is extremely fluid and there are influences that we still don't know about or fully understand and a computer or algorithm isn't just going to magically figure that out. AI still struggles with generated images of people and objects...so we're to expect it will figure out the atmosphere?

I find this to be nothing but voodoo and actually its kind of gross because there are people being taken advantage of for this type of stuff, particularly if they're paying a great deal of money. There have been a few articles on the "success" of these AI models. For example, that one tropical system last year that went into NS and there was the article that said the google AI nailed that 10 days out.... Well what do they mean by nailing something 10 or 15 days out? That what the product showed for D10 and D15 verified? But how did it do on D14, 13, 12, 11, ..., 3,2,1? Was it extremely consistent or did it waver back-and-forth and have a million different solutions? If that is the case then GARBAGE. That's no different than what models currently do. The idea of being able to process data much more quickly is phenomenal but if I understand correctly, these AI models are not run with equations and physics...it just looks for pattern similarities. I mean pattern recognition is great but humans can do that too and while the weather pattern is important its how the pieces move and evolve which is more important and there is zero chance in hell AI will ever figure that out because this goes beyond "patterns".

Probably going to see some type of wintry mess for NNE Monday. Someone will end up getting smoked

Still looks like we see some isolated snow squalls this afternoon...HRRR does get some decent 3km CAPE so certainly can't rule something out! Coverage though seems to be a big question.

was just coming to post that

Sun coming out here...bye-bye sno. And holy crap did it melt off the trees quickly. I swear the trees were still caked like 20 minutes ago.

A lot of this stuff is below the radar beams. Probably best to use satellite and look at cloud tops.

Lightning!!! I knew there would be lightning today

The uptick in school bus crashes seems alarming and yeah drivers are much worse. I have a friend who works for the DOT and is involved in research on the driving statistics and he said it's been alarming and scary since COVID, particularly with DUI's. People are much more aggressive trying to get around school buses or pass them and even blowing by them when they have the stop sign out. But bus drivers have some fault too, particularly on the highway. You can't have school busses on the highway going 40-50 mph, especially when they're changing lanes. There was a time when I would be driving down 91S and entering Hartford, if I caught it at a specific time, there would be two school busses merging onto the highway and getting over 3 lanes to catch the route 2 exit...it was scary because they're doing 30 and everyone else is doing 60-70.

yeah for sure. I know you and Will mentioned there would be some localized warning criteria reports but not enough to justify issuing a warning.