weatherwiz

Actually this is exactly what's going to happen. The Bruins are going to be in game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals and we're going to have a severe weather outbreak with a moderate risk

56 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Is there going to be one in the Southern Plains?

no this is New England specific 

There is no good pattern on the horizon for severe weather. This really sucks. 

4 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I just read where Newsome in California is opening everything up in mid June. Even indoor mask mandates are going. 
A recall petition does wonders.

I may have to revise my 2022 unmasking schedule. Once a few states do it, they’ll fall like dominoes.

Agreed!!

I still think that people are just going to stop wearing them in the coming weeks whether the mandates lift or not...especially at places like bars 

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The summer version of clown maps. 

CAPE is a measure of instability...clown maps just well...clown

Just now, Brian5671 said:

agreed.   Our town announced today they will hold the annual Memorial Day Parade which is great. (will probably get rained out now lol)

That's awesome!

I think tomorrow 12-15 year old vaccinations can start? Really curious to see how numbers drop then. 

Number of tests being done in CT has dropped substantially and also the # of positive tests. The number presented today was 187/17,891. I would think probably by the end of the month (probably even sooner) that is below 100 and once we get below 100 I think we quickly start nearing 50 and hopefully even less.

1.05% for CT last 24-hours and hospitalizations down to 243!!!

Everything re-opens fully a week from today...I give it like first week of June and indoor mask mandate in CT will be bye-bye

As we prepare for severe weather season I've thought of a new fun way to start raising awareness for potential severe weather events...now obviously there is more to severe weather than just CAPE alone but additions will be made moving forward. But...it's always fun looking for high CAPE. 

Anyways, this will only be looking at 7-days down the road...and ONLY if there is a potential trigger mechanism for convection. For example, let's say it's mid-August and it's 100/73 and despite the poor lapse rates we're still generating 3500 CAPE...but there is no trigger...well this will not be issued. 

So let's look at an example. Let's pretend we are looking 4 days out and the models are showing extreme CAPE (>4000 J) over New England thanks to an EML over 88/73 air with a cold front approaching. It would look like this:

1. A CAPE map from the models (note: This will be for MLCAPE and not SBCAPE)

2. The bottom left references the CAPE alert scale

3. On the right will indicate the CAPE alert level

CAPE!!!!!!!

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably should point out ... this is all predicated on the silly assumption that the NAM's 48 - 60 hour handling of ass wiping can ever be done correctly ... let alone what it is designed for... just so we're clear.

Still, because the global runs ( Euro ...GGEM ...etc..) have that lingering cyclonic curvature  ... staggered back mid-level cool pool aspect ...it does offer some hope for crispy edged TCU.  The NAM may just be going over-board in the particulars relative to that overall aspect.  Frid-Sunday afternoons..... and this run just being the first of them three days. 

That said, if this run's metrics played out ...  I wouldn't focus on needing idealized mechanics, not when the lapse rates get that volatile.  That's getting into butterfly fart sensitivity there.  Granted, we're not talking about cotton swab explosions on high res vis satellite loops here.  Just whether there's some picturesque golf cart zappers here and there. 

 

The SPC does have thunderstorm probabilities across the Northeast so they at least think the support is there and SPC SREF spitting out enough probs to spark an interest

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Look at these numbers (NAM FOUS) for Logan Friday during the day ...  That d(t) ( vertical lapse rate) = 19 C between 980 mb at 800 mb level!!  

C'mon...that's like the inside an a-bomb mushroom cloud.  The 51 and 55 on the far left is the R2 sigma level, which I believe is the 700 mb ...showing a slight elevation > 50% relative humidity so the model is seeing cloud contamination in the lifted LCL ... The LIs are listed here too ( just not bold) also, down to 1 ...so modestly unstable. But  suspect that's only 'modest' because this is missing substantive DP.  The lapse rate here is impressive - I'm a fan of lapse rate.  Meanwhile, that 45 and 46 spelled out is the 545 and 546 dm thickness.   So, this NAM run has a 20 C (980 ...which is probably about 24 or even 25 in the 2-meter on a WNW katabatic flow)  under 545 thickness, with a 800 mb of 1 ??  

uh... yeah I bet this has an few over achieving TCU dappled about the open terrain over land ... 

54000355123 -1701 213005 45 201101   
60000345521 01901 213205 46 201201     

Only thing we may be lacking is stronger shortwave support. The NAM/GFS have a pretty impressive shortwave actually close off as it's passing south of us and this is also the core of the cold pool with H5 temps approaching -25C!

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... ur funny - just say modest instability cumulonimbi ... but you gotta get the word 'hail' in there.  lol -

oh hail the mighty cold pool 

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Also, ... some lingering 500 mb lag cyclonic curvature Fri-Sun, with 74 underneath high sun ... I am noticing some QPF speckles 18z over land them days - maybe we can pop corn

Definitely should see some orographic induced showers w/pea-hail this weekend I think. 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Can I ask you question -

You seem pretty spiritually committed to a particular sub-genera of Meteorological phenomenon, one that could only be more systemically inhibited in this region of the planetary-atmospheric coupled climate if it were located on 20 miles outside Amundsen-Scott, South Pole Reasearch Facility out over the cryo-barrens of Ross Ice Sheet, Antarctica  

You have a degree in Meteorology.  You are young.  Go west young man. Find your home and plug into the realm you were meant - apparently - to be a part. 

Staying here ?  It's like staying in an abusive relationship because one has some unconscious fulfillment of persecution complex - haha...  I mean, start hammering away at finding jobs... f* Met gigs for now. You can find some way to pay for an appartment and spend all your free time dong grad courses on-line and eventually hell... 10 years from now you'd still be young with your foot in the door at the operations branch of NSSL ... maybe -  Point is, you don't know you can't until you try.  

Unless you have some entanglements of life that have you manacled to this area ...If so, that's sad and I'm sorry ... Otherwise, get the f outta here man and find her - the metaphoric "her" ..you know what mean

I have always toyed with the idea of moving West. It was something that has been quite appealing but the more I thought of it I became hesitant. I feel like moving to a completely different area after college, especially by yourself is tough...especially when it comes to trying to meet people and I'm not really the big sociable person that goes up to people and start talking to them. Then there is the family aspect with my mom being older and her health not very great and my aunt who I'm close with isn't in the best of health either. As for work I am super lucky to have found a job which I've grown to like and it's super interesting though quite demanding. I am considering going for my masters though and starting classes next spring...I think an NWS job would be sick...particularly within the SPC which is something I would definitely shoot for but don't you need to know coding/GIS for that? I don't think I could ever learn that stuff. I am pretty excited though at the prospects of hiring spree within the NWS over the next several years so getting a masters now would be pretty essential. 

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS introduced this late yesterday and has persisted with it since.   It carries a pattern defeating nasty SPV extension/quasi-closed buzz-saw through southern Canada ...spanning it's entire mid and extended range to do it, ending up with it still on the charts festering a cold hell over eastern Canada/NE by and through Day 10.

The Euro has never had this feature since yesterday's runs.

The GEFs individual members:  looks like about 50% of them offer tepid support for troughing at D10 over New England, ... none as deep as the operational that I can tell.  While the other 50% offers a bit more support for a different/flat ridge or robust ridge signal over eastern North American mid latitudes. 

Meanwhile, for the 7 days in the row, the nightly telecon handling of the PNA indicates a marked and concerted decline among the members ...  downs -2 or -3 SD and still falling at D10.  The means and -PNA et al ...supports the operational Euro more. 

It matters for spring/warm enthusiasts.  The Euro would has every day 72, 74, 76, 78, 82, 84 ... type of steady warming...  Clouds would be the only limiting factor... ending on D10 with a discerned synoptic ridge and established continental warm conveyor in the bottom half of the troposphere from the SW U.S. to Maine.. 

Basically 180 degrees opposite in synoptic layout to the GFS by the end of that run, which has sad buzz saw still cutting into the flow and denying any of the Euro's evolution from about D5 onward. 

 

 

I am quite surprised at the PNA signal. Would have to look through records (which perhaps I'll do after this post) but I would think this would be approaching record territory for May. Usually the PNA signal really starts waning by now. Not a good look for those that like the chase in the mid-west.

When I was at WestConn Westside Campus I think was like up around 700' while the bottom of the hill was maybe a couple hundred...if even that. Anyways it was about a mile from the top of the hill to the bottom (or maybe 3/4 of a mile). I remember a couple times driving and it would be rain at the bottom and as you got higher it would flip and at the top there would be a coating+ of snow. I've done the walk a few times and it's super cool when you get to the transition spot. 

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Firstly, it's May 11 ... Now I'm no expert at load balancing but it seems to me there are more days of May yet to come ?  

Secondly, even considering the dearth of activity as a result:   that's typical for May in this region since I've lived here, and it seems less like a joke, and more like spring being spring in NE. 

Anecdotally .. I seem to recall more of our "severe" ( our version of what severe means anyway ...) as being a June and July thing...  It's almost like the termination latitude of the "severe band" if you will, that starts around the Gulf states in mid February, ...then TX/ ... west TX by say early April ... moving N to OK/KAN over to the TV in mid April...  Then up toward IA/IL/ S. Lakes to OH/ western PA by mid to late May ... weakening as it goes as far as 'how severe' ... I mean you can obviously still get an EOF5 ... Worcester had one in 1953 that was/is imprisoned in the historic annuls as a EF4 by a 'storm-racist' policy ...  It's the Ruben "Hurricane" Carter tornado ...LOL.

Anyway ... New England' severe season is like the band at its weakest by the time it gets here and May is too early. 

 

The waiting game just sucks. I always figure our best likelihood for a higher-end severe threat is usually from like mid-to-late may through mid-July. After mid-July we usually begin to establish deep SW flow through the column and have to deal with poor lapse rates.

I guess we going to go through May without severe wx...what a joke

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I think so? Maybe Ryan has more insight....I am pretty sure that BDL had in the 115" range in 1995-1996 and not 106.9. Not a massive error if that is the case, but you still want to get the record correct.

 

edit: I can already see at least one error for that season. They have 0.0" for April 1996 which is not correct.

Nothing maddens me more than this whole snow record keeping debacle which occurred during the window in the 90's...how completely irresponsible and utterly ridiculous. What tops it all too is...the errors are INCLUDED in calculations for averages...how absurd. I mean fine...a huge mishap occurred with the record but don't incorporate that into averages. 

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

The 1981-2010 normals for BDL incorrectly included two or three years as 0" at BDL because of the missing data. By the time the NWS was aware it was too late to change it as they were already published.

also didn't they use an incorrect 1995-1996 seasonal snowfall total number for BDL?

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It does look to turn considerably warmer after this weekend. Good for Ineedsnow. Will be IneedAC soon. Bring the warmth and dews.

All the high CAPE stays in the Plains  

It's such torture watching it creep east on the models an then when it gets to the door of the Northeast...BOOM it retreats back. It's like being at a concert sitting in the front row and having Taylor Swift come at you then go back to the stage.

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think the Davis measures high. I’ve noticed it a couple times 

maybe the person measuring is high 

The central Plains into the Missouri Valley could get quite active moving through next week...maybe into the Ohio Valley. Sometimes a good precursor to us!!!

I'm a bit skeptical about flipping straight to "warm" or "heat". Still quite a bit of a trough signal, even on the EPS from the Arctic down through eastern Canada into New England. The brunt of the warmth in that pattern looks to be just to our SW. I mean eventually it will start to get warmer as climo increases but not totally sold we get into big time (long lasting) just yet

Why did Kevin quote me and not say anything?