weatherwiz

This is why I do like the 10th-12th period that several have mentioned, it seems to offer the best potential for good shortwave amplification and potential for deep trough amplification...of course this could also result in cutters but this is where we want some degree of blocking.

A few days ago though we were really only going out until around the 10th or 11th on the OP. It is becoming more active with shortwaves after that period but everything is a chaotic mess and yes...not uncommon given its way out there but outside of this Wednesday/Thursday (which isn't fun for anyone except the moose up north) we have to go well into the first week of January before there's even something remotely possible to track and even then could be playing with fire.

Agreed, without turning this into another Friday night posting disaster, I won't say much else but it will scare me if we're going into mid-January with one legit "threat". I just don't like how chaotic everything looks within the longwave pattern...it's not a smooth pattern (if that makes sense). I get the ensembles are the way to go in the medium-to-extend range but sometimes the smoothing done by the ensembles is not a good thing, especially when there is too much chaos on-hand. Think back to was it 2010 and then again in 2013 when we had those epic stretches...we had a beautiful longwave pattern but there wasn't a whole hell of a lot of chaos. I thought about it like a railroad track...you have the longwave pattern (train tracks) and then a steady supply of shortwaves (the train) with little destructive interference. This...just looks like a chaotic mess. When I see that it just leads me to believe that you really only have one legit shot at something. That's why I was saying cold/dry with the one potential in the 10th-12th when there looked to be the most favorable alignment of teleconnections.

I seriously hope the 10th-12th period works out. Not optimistic about the period several days prior but please let this period work out. Feels like that period will never get here and its even crazier thinking that will be closing in on mid-January

Somewhere in NNE is going to end up making out well Wednesday probably from northern New Hampshire through interior northern Maine.

Getting a little excited for some thunder later tonight

meh I don't think ENSO state is particularly dominant or a major driver right now. If anything, there may be quite the hangover from last years EL Nino. I was looking back and this December ended up playing out how I thought last December would

I can't remember which one it was...maybe it was 2013? But I remember getting royally screwed in West Hartford...I mean I think I still got around a foot or so but a far cry from the 18-24'' expected. I remember alot of pissed off people that night because the radar was just so bandy...it was like looking at a tropical system.

yes, thanks.

If precipitation becomes too banded then you're dealing with too many subsidence zones. There were a few big ones I think this happened with in the early 2010's. Areas that got into the subsidence zones got screwed mightily.

I’d prefer something in the 980’s. Any lower (hell even in the 980’s this could become a concern) you start to worry about precip shield becoming more banded…which has screwed us in the past. Really hoping this period around the 10th works. edit 70’s to 80’s

?

I would imagine it would be difficult to muster up warm anomalies to beat those, even with the climate regime we're in. Even in the warmest of patterns, we're likely to at least get at least a few strong(er) FROPAs to push through where, even if brief, it's enough of a cold shot to really damper the anomalies.

That's a massive area of -45C to -46C 500mb temps...can't recall too many times seeing that within the CONUS

Was curious what the record low observed 850 temp was at MIA. Looks like -5.4C 12/24/89. That would stand a solid chance of being broken if this cold shot is legit lol

A friend of mine and I were down in New Haven once and we wanted to get some pizza to go from I think it was Sally's...there was a 9 hour wait. Would have been so worth it though.

Have to find the link for airmass trajectory but I wonder if that modeled airmass has any traces back to like Siberia. Looks like it's just about as cold, if not, colder at 925 than it is at 850 under the core cold of the airmass. Isn't that like a staple of airmasses with Siberian origin?

Just seems like no matter what, we get screwed Can't wait to we eventually get out of this

I sacrifice Zadorov

yeah that's something I've thought about too. When we have an abundance of shortwaves it creates chaos with guidance and one reason for the struggle in the short-term but on the other hand...you would think with the abundance of shortwaves that eventually regression to the mean will work in our favor.

I am becoming extremely impatient and quite honestly, I still have a sour taste in my mouth from the last February event where I thought for sure I would get around a foot and only ended up with 3.5''. Maybe it has become a defense mechanism to just poo-poo extended range when it looks good for fear of being disappointed but I really am fed up with these garbage winters.

I certainly hope so! I am dying to do this Fair

Agreed on that but more often than not, storms come at the onset of pattern changes. When we get lucky, we can get the pattern to setup right and drill us with multiple storms in the span of weeks but that's not what this upcoming period looks to be. Look at even the last several winters...we have been in a terrible rut where we're lacking cold air ahead of storms but we have no problem getting cold in here on the backside of systems but once the next system approaches, we warm. This upcoming stretch looks like we get very cold, but lack an active pattern. There is that one period in the 10th-12th where teleconnections seem like they could line up to favor a storm within the East but the overall pattern seems absent of an abundance of shortwave energy.

These are two totally different scales and aren't comparable. Convection is mesoscale and severe is generally extremely localized.

These two statements are said 2-3x per winter and more with the second statement.