weatherwiz

Agree, this is a big player I believe. I don't know a whole heck of a lot about the basic blueprints of forecast models (the math/physics, different schemes...I'm hoping that may actually be covered in my advanced forecasting class) but I do know this Data assimilation and being able to properly and accurately parameterize are detrimental to the success and accuracy of a forecast model. This is what made the euro superior for all those years, the euro had superior assimilation and parameterization. This is exactly why I am not sold on AI yet. We need to drastically improve these capabilities and this is where (hopefully) quantum computing is going to come a long ways.

I could see AI being heavily influenced in thinking because you have a nrn stream moving in and srn stream coming up the coast that there will be clean phasing. Like Runnaway said, maybe there is also resolution at play here..or something to this degree? I mean the vorticity field almost seems "too smoothed"...too clean.

Very well could be too expansive.

It will eventually hit one after 1000 tries and then everyone is going to get sucked into it because it finally got a hit and ignore the other 999 misses

The AIGFS doesn't seem too drastically different from the 12z OP run yesterday in terms of the H5 evolution, both srn stream and nrn stream.

nahhh that would be more if we had model consensus for a big hit now, only to see the rug get pulled out from under us as we got closer

Neither did Bears fans entering the 4th quarter. Let's Chicago Bears this thing

He probably prefers to keep his sanity

I enjoy his tweets. He definitely does not hype and is pretty straightforward. I really enjoy his posts during convective events

Yeah I don't think there is any convective feedback issue going on here...hardly any, if any, convection with this anyways in the Southeast

Agreed...I think it's going to be until Friday or Saturday before we have a true gasp on the 500mb evolution.

Sick One of my classes this semester, Advanced Forecasting Techniques will cover winter weather forecasting including long range/seasonal forecasting and teleconnections

Hopefully Tyler Loop isn't kicking

I think at this point we would need to see some sizable adjustments from the Euro (which I don't see happening) with the 0z run tonight if we want to talk about potential for widespread warning criteria. I guess we wait on the EPS now

It was looking *slightly* promising between 90-96 hours then went to hell

That n/s is def more of a kicker on the euro versus gfs. big differences too with that srn stream shortwave and how it evolves across the southeast. Was hoping to see something more positive here

Yeah I think at the end of the day the 12z GFS OP is probably towards the outlier side of what would ultimately happen. I'm just hoping for slight improvements from the euro this run from 0z/6z....all we can ask for right now.

Yup!

I am going to be more interested in hoe euro looks with the H5 evolution moreso than what it does at the sfc with SLP development. Just want to see some ticks in this regard (H5) towards the GFS. But the euro really isn't far off so it's very plausible.

As the GFS was out to Sunday I was wondering if that energy diving down the Plains was going to end up screwing things up but ultimately it ended up feeding into our vort and helping to go boom.

Well the GFS illustrates pretty well what we need to see happen to get such a solution. Even the euro isn't too far off but it just goes to show how sensitive setups like this are.

Haven't seen a 500 evolution like this in a while it feels like

Much better digging by 12z Sunday and it looks lie the trough is becoming neutrally tilted as its crossing AL/GA....I love me some of that look.

12z GFS looking like a few spots may be able to grab a few inches Saturday too. That is some macho vort

When I first became introduced to forecast models and I'd see those "white blob" like -30F 850 temps I think it was from Plymouth models...I used to open my freezer and suck in the air as hard as I could to prepare for breathing in that cold