weatherwiz

I think its fun to look at those type of details even far out...if anything so you at least make sure you're covering all the bases as you get closer to forecast time. I'll be posting some bufkit profiles soon we all can geek over!!! 18z bufkit should be out in 5.5 minutes

I'm going to go buy a yard stick this week

I was getting nervous when I saw the tucked look but was pleasantly surprised when I saw the thermals...thank you block. I can't wait for the 18z GFS bufkit. Thankfully this is just inside the 180hr mark but I can't wait to geek out over omega overlaid onto the snowgrowth...I don't care that its way out there....I'm geeking out.

Despite being a week out and as intense of a solution as this is, the good news is this isn't farfetched at all...it has merit.

That would be something...widespread blizzard with major coastal flooding.

This is going to elicit one hell of a storm holy shit

You don’t post funny stuff much but this is gold

It would be amazing if we could start processing these complex equations even faster and start rolling out model data more quickly. It sucks having to wait 2.5-3.5 hours from initialization time .

That is going to be some storm end of the week from northeast Texas through Arkansas, Tennessee, and the mid-Atlantic. Some areas going to get crushed...I bet the Smokey's pick up like 3 feet of snow.

That is a very low confidence period right now, largely due to the immense spread with how the SW energy is being handled. There is going to be lots of influences as to how any system within the deep southern Plains develops and evolves. We really may not have a clear idea on this until probably Tuesday.

That's it. It's one thing to see a good looking pattern in place, but it's a whole other ball game when it comes to how the pieces within the pattern are moving and quite frankly, it's not the pattern which produces weather, it's how the pieces are moving, evolving, and interacting which produce the weather.

I was mostly refereeing last week and the first week of January, which at that point, was really how far out the OP models were going. I know I'll always get chastised for saying this and I don't care but the charade of getting excited because of pretty blue colors in the East has faded with me. It's one thing to look at the pattern but you also have to see what is going on within that pattern and from what I was looking at - I was not excited. I'll keep saying this until the day I get banned or suspended or whatever, but if you keep saying things look good 1,000 times and nothing happens, at some point one needs to say to themselves, "maybe this isn't as good as originally thought". It seems like we're stuck on ideologies from 20-30 years ago. With each passing day and weather phenomena our dataset grows and continues to grow. There was a point in time where you could argue weak La Nina's (or even certain ENSO phase/strength) correlated well with good winters here...but as this dataset has continued to expand, correlations which were stronger 20 years ago aren't as strong now. We have enough of a database now to where we can probability better identify and differentiate these types of patterns and separate what is truly good versus what isn't good. I know for myself at least, I got tired of telling myself (and friends who asked) yeah this upcoming pattern looks good for snow and then nothing happens. Not sure how anyone else feels about that but you can only say something over and over without result before having to go back to the drawing board.

This is true

Only 3 more full months until May

I like to call spring training TJ season

Great read, good stuff! Awesome insight

They miss so many opportunities...similar to our winter Boring to watch...takes me 2...sometimes 3 games to drink a full tall High Noon. We need snow soon...and none of this snow shower, quick inch, crap. Real snow

Whoever is in charge of the Bruins offense must also be in charge of our weather. Nothing but Zzzzzzzzzz

The other thing with Monday is there could be some robust convection moving across the Gulf Coast states late Sunday and early Monday...that is going to rob moisture north. Something that may even hold back accumulations within portions of the Ohio Valley (Indiana/Ohio)

What about solar activity...there is a correlation between solar activity and blocking so I wonder what, if any, influence solar activity is having. Perhaps it isn't necessarily influencing the structure of the blocking but it very well could be. The atmospheric chemistry isn't something I understand well (though that was a fun course...wish we got more out of that class) but chemical reactions occurring within the stratosphere could be helping to shape the stratospheric PV. Just kind of thinking out loud here. I wish I could retake atmospheric chemistry...that wasn't the name of the class...maybe it was remote sensing but that was interesting stuff.

This is what I was trying to say Friday...maybe what we perceive as "great" or "perfect" isn't so great after all. I mean how many times can something look "great" and not produce before one takes a step back and says, "well geeze, maybe this isn't as good as thought"? But we can keep labeling these great because at some point the pattern will produce and it will elicit, "it finally worked" or "told ya so" :or "its all about patience"...but this is aiken to playing the lotto and playing the same numbers over and over, eventually the number is going to hit. We are probably skewed because of the larger storms than can be a product of these patterns, but what is the return rate on these patterns? If you were to play these patterns 100 times and maybe only 5 times does it elicit a big storm or a snowy period...can you really say the pattern is "great"? I mean the big question is...what is that return rate on this pattern and what return rate constitutes "great"?

I only looked quickly, but verbatim I think the Euro is too warm there

just had a mini snowicane here

Flakes falling here

might have to move the Cowboys playoff g....oh wait