weatherwiz

I would have to think that in the next winter or two we regress back towards average-to-above average snowfall seasons for the region as a whole. I hope to God it's next winter...and there is still time this winter. We can't discount getting crushed in a 4-6 week period during February or March. But if we go another 2 winters like this I am going to become very concerned.

I've been really thinking about this and it's been very weird how the last several years we've seen some good looks in the medium and extended range on ensembles but then nothing happens and in some of those situations we ended up not even remotely close to getting anything. I wonder if the overall pattern and pieces within the pattern are just too complex for ensembles. We've seen some very complex patterns with lots of moving pieces and this is where the ensembles smoothing is kind of making things look better than they really are. I mean think of how many good looks we have had which have failed to produce. That isn't a coincidence and it isn't bad luck. Smoothing can be extremely useful but it can also hide the true story.

I am in agreement with that.

We need a complete hemispheric or even global shakeup. We'll get out of this like we have before but the last several years have been awful, granted better for some versus others, but its been horrid. Doesn't matter the ENSO state, doesn't matter how the NAO or AO has evolved or what phase they're in, doesn't matter what the PNA, EPO, etc. have done. There is clearly some sort of background state that, no matter how things look in the extended, the end result in something that verifies shitty. What that is, why that is, no clue. We've had a tendency to have everything evolve into cutters when we get phasing or a tendency for just OTS crap without phasing.

Where did I argue against that? I've said several times weeks back I liked that period too.

It's been difficult, but I think alot of us are our own worst enemy in that regard. We're looking at OP runs and SLP charts for 200+ hours out and if one OP run shows a storm, all of a sudden there is a "threat". Forecasting in the 7-10+ day range the last several years has been absolutely brutal. The Ensembles are helping either, and in fact, they're making matters only worse at times. While ensembles are critical in medium range forecasting I think sometimes they're weighted too heavily, especially when it comes to the probabilistic sense. I get in this field, there is a huge push towards going the probabilistic route, however, I don't like it at all. We see 60% ensemble probs of 5" 6 days out and are going, "That's a strong signal by the ensembles" and then its off to the races. Sure 60% of anything at 5-6 days out is great, but that 60% is driven based on what the outputs are...if the outputs start going to crap, so do the probabilities. I get there is fun in tracking storms or talking about storms at D10+...I mean this is a weather community and where else would we go to discuss this stuff and have fun? But it's gotten to the point where unrealistic expectations are being created and we're bleeding fantasy and fun with reality and it leads to the back-and-forth wars.

Who knows what to think anymore. I think I am still upset over last winter as a whole and upset about that February event that I got screwed in but I really thought last winter was going to produce. I had zero expectations coming into this winter because I just didn't really get the opportunity to explore long-range, plus I wanted to tackle that from a whole different direction. Things could absolutely change moving into February and we could get crushed but its just been another deflating winter. It's almost as if we can't buy a large-scale synoptic weather event anymore...everything is mesoscale driven or topoggraphic...the upslope snows up north, the inverted trough over the weekend, some LES streamers which have made their way in.

I love reading their blizzard warnings sometimes and its for like 2" of snow with 50-60 mph winds

yeah this isn’t the Inter-mountain West (or maybe even northern Plains?) where their peak climo occurs prior to the solstice. Ours is like a good 4-6 weeks later.

It’s much more tolerable outside than it has been. This isn’t bad at all.

You may take this statement back if we get destroyed and you end up with 99.7”

We'll end up getting everything to line up in late February/March...too late for much of us while NNE somehow manages 50-70" of snow.

I was 8 months old, almost 9 months. Born Oct 1988

Maybe that means we'll get a July 10, 1989 redux

So much work to put all those layers on. If I have to go somewhere I’ve been wearing thermal PJs under my pants, thermal socks, a light pullover shirt, then a regular shirt, light jacket, sweatshirt or two, plus a winter jacket, hat, facemask, and gloves. That helps a little bit but it’s exhausting getting it all on, especially the PJ pants because when you put your pants in it takes the bottoms up and you have to do weird moves to pull them down.

A light jacket, sweatshirt, and a hat.

Every time I have to go outside I just tell myself in 4 or 5 months it will be HHH

I couldn't believe what I read a few weeks ago where the Jets owner blocked the deal they had in place for Jerry Jeudy because he wasn't a fan of his rating in Madden. I thought it was a joke but I guess several Jets have verified that he often seeks player ratings in Madden in his decision making process lol.

I was in Branford Tuesday and the wind was ripping there. Yesterday the winds here in Springfield (at least where I am) were nuts...there were some big gusts that made the roof creek. Its been gusty at times today but pretty tame overall.

Or we could all do what the Jets owner does...use Madden ratings

It is less windy here today with wind advisories than it has been all week with no advisory lol. (I don't want that to come across as criticism of advisories versus no advisories...I just think its funny how winds perform/work at times).

You said EPS is colder than the OP but I don't see temperatures being displayed here...

True but our understanding of weather is built on our understanding of physics and how the atmosphere works. There are laws and principles which we can easily prove and you take those laws and principle and apply them. All these stats in baseball are just a means to give a valuation to a player. It's about trying to find the "best" player available for as little money possible.

Gotcha, I see where the disconnect here is. When I am talking about data I am also including the growth of the database just due to time. For example, for those who like to look at snowfall breakdowns based on ENSO...this winter will add to the database for La Nina winters. But that's the thing with data...there is alot of it out there and its up to the person to decide which data to use and how they want to use it. But we can't just discount data and tools because there is too much of it. We need to adapt because this is an ever evolving field.

It certainly can and one can but that is where it is up to someone analyzing data to make distinctions. I don't think too much data is a bad thing but it can be bad if data starts becoming misused, misinterpreted, or manipulated. In the sense of weather, alot of just broken down into monthly averages. For example, look at the teleconnections...monthly NAO, monthly AO, monthly PNA, etc. Why is it done this way? I don't know the answer (probably more than one) but I would hedge because it's easier, cleaner, and more organized. But how everything averages up in the monthly...over time that probably leads to a story which isn't an accurate assessment.