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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    I could see AI being heavily influenced in thinking because you have a nrn stream moving in and srn stream coming up the coast that there will be clean phasing. Like Runnaway said, maybe there is also resolution at play here..or something to this degree? I mean the vorticity field almost seems "too smoothed"...too clean.
  2. weatherwiz
    Very well could be too expansive.
  3. weatherwiz
    It will eventually hit one after 1000 tries and then everyone is going to get sucked into it because it finally got a hit and ignore the other 999 misses
  4. weatherwiz
    The AIGFS doesn't seem too drastically different from the 12z OP run yesterday in terms of the H5 evolution, both srn stream and nrn stream.
  5. weatherwiz
    nahhh that would be more if we had model consensus for a big hit now, only to see the rug get pulled out from under us as we got closer
  6. weatherwiz
    Neither did Bears fans entering the 4th quarter. Let's Chicago Bears this thing
  7. weatherwiz
    He probably prefers to keep his sanity
  8. weatherwiz
    I enjoy his tweets. He definitely does not hype and is pretty straightforward. I really enjoy his posts during convective events
  9. weatherwiz
    Yeah I don't think there is any convective feedback issue going on here...hardly any, if any, convection with this anyways in the Southeast
  10. weatherwiz
    Agreed...I think it's going to be until Friday or Saturday before we have a true gasp on the 500mb evolution.
  11. weatherwiz
    Sick One of my classes this semester, Advanced Forecasting Techniques will cover winter weather forecasting including long range/seasonal forecasting and teleconnections
  12. weatherwiz
    Hopefully Tyler Loop isn't kicking
  13. weatherwiz
    I think at this point we would need to see some sizable adjustments from the Euro (which I don't see happening) with the 0z run tonight if we want to talk about potential for widespread warning criteria. I guess we wait on the EPS now
  14. weatherwiz
    It was looking *slightly* promising between 90-96 hours then went to hell
  15. weatherwiz
    That n/s is def more of a kicker on the euro versus gfs. big differences too with that srn stream shortwave and how it evolves across the southeast. Was hoping to see something more positive here
  16. weatherwiz
    Yeah I think at the end of the day the 12z GFS OP is probably towards the outlier side of what would ultimately happen. I'm just hoping for slight improvements from the euro this run from 0z/6z....all we can ask for right now.
  17. weatherwiz
    Yup!
  18. weatherwiz
    I am going to be more interested in hoe euro looks with the H5 evolution moreso than what it does at the sfc with SLP development. Just want to see some ticks in this regard (H5) towards the GFS. But the euro really isn't far off so it's very plausible.
  19. weatherwiz
    As the GFS was out to Sunday I was wondering if that energy diving down the Plains was going to end up screwing things up but ultimately it ended up feeding into our vort and helping to go boom.
  20. weatherwiz
    Well the GFS illustrates pretty well what we need to see happen to get such a solution. Even the euro isn't too far off but it just goes to show how sensitive setups like this are.
  21. weatherwiz
    Haven't seen a 500 evolution like this in a while it feels like
  22. weatherwiz
    Much better digging by 12z Sunday and it looks lie the trough is becoming neutrally tilted as its crossing AL/GA....I love me some of that look.
  23. weatherwiz
    12z GFS looking like a few spots may be able to grab a few inches Saturday too. That is some macho vort
  24. weatherwiz
    When I first became introduced to forecast models and I'd see those "white blob" like -30F 850 temps I think it was from Plymouth models...I used to open my freezer and suck in the air as hard as I could to prepare for breathing in that cold
  25. weatherwiz
    BOS perhaps gets near 50F with 40's elsewhere...but temperatures start dropping west-to-east through the afternoon...probably see squalls along the leading edge of the colder air
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