weatherwiz

Looks fine to me...even around MA Pike

I was hoping to see some CAPE modeled

That's the thing too...there are way too many products out there (which are not even NCEP products, just derived products from 3rd party vendors) which everyone flocks too and leads to unnecessary hype and unrealistic expectations. This includes snow maps, precipitation type maps, supercell composite parameter, significant tornado parameter, etc. If snow maps were never created, probably 85% of extended storms would garner little interest outside of the, "Oh look the GFS has an HECS at D10". Now, folks see a 8 day 24 HR snow map which 20-30 inches and all of a sudden, "there's a real threat". Same goes with severe...so many events in the midwest now are labeled with having potential to produce numerous tornadoes and strong/violent tornadoes because STP is forecast to be 5 or SCP is forecast to be 20.

Snowfall though is generally more tied into precipitation departures versus temperature departures at our latitude...though there are exceptions to this too. Right now we are in a snow drought cycle so correlations will be weaker, but once we get back on track for a several year stretch, you will notice the correlation to snowfall is quite high with regard to precipitation anomalies versus temperature.

But that's just the thing...fast flows are unlikely to leas to numerous moderate events and even minor ones seem difficult to come by and are typically regulated to either far interior or elevation (depending on thermal profile). But this is the point I am getting at which Ray alluded too. We keep putting hope in these will work out but there are meteorological reasons (which Ray pointed out) which explain why that more often than not, they just aren't going to work out. I also don't necessarily think its a concept of letting the past cloud our judgement in the present, but more of a product of better understanding the atmosphere and how it works. Think of how many forecasts there have been these last few winters with maps getting tossed out 3 days in advance with big calls and everyone getting hyped up over amped solutions...then well inside the 3 days the models back off and all of a sudden snowfall maps are being lowered and lowered...right up to the day of the storm. Understanding this type of regime and the bias to amp in the medium range, as a forecaster, you would develop a sense of playing it more safe versus going aggressive, knowing there is a decent chance the models back off. But historically a slower pattern with less energy does yield much higher odds and probabilities. This holds true during the severe season too (out west). When you have troughs digging across the Plains but with tons of shortwaves...that tends to lead to destructive interference and hinder what appears to be an environment favorable for numerous supercells and tornadoes (because STP/SCP are off the charts) and the forecasts busts.

I get it...100% and believe me...I'm pissed off too. But there comes a point where expectations versus reality become blended and that's when expectations start becoming well...unrealistic. And this is where for the most part, some people are kind of doing it to themselves by getting suck into guidance which goes bonkers in the medium range and developing a sense as that is a possible expectation. And then marrying extended EPS charts because they show deep blues at H5 and correlating that to potential and expecting active times. It sucks...we're in a cycle in which it just sucks here but we will break out of it eventually...have some phenomenal years for a several year stretch and then revert back to this.

Yeah its way too early to be cancelling anything. I mean what's climo right now...probably ranging from 2-5" and of course probably even under 2" closer towards the coast. Not having snow on the ground on Dec. 9 doesn't mean winter is cancelled or winter will be bad.

Makes total sense...that's along the lines of what I was figuring you were getting at.

I like this idea of assessment here. Focus on potential versus snowfall. But I guess one challenge with using something as potential threats...I feel like that can be quite subjective. There would have to be solid baseline definition of what is defined as a possible threat. But I would certainly prefer to measure a season on potential events and number of events versus something like snowfall alone.

Yes, bad luck in the sense of the end result for us and precisely why the thinking of "well I'll take my odds with plenty of chances" is kind of pointless. Big deal if it happens once out of every 100 chances. Why does it even matter what guidance has in the 96-120 hr window...who cares if its showing a bit better with ridging in region x or that its a bit sharper with the lead shortwave, yada yada yada...the end result is generally 99% of the time always going to be the same and that is a reflection of the state and regime which will dictate the final outcome

Exactly why we need to get back to patterns which are southern stream dominant with weaker northern streams which phase in...bring back the storms riding up the coast. Forget this whole "we can do well in northern stream" crap. Maybe there was a winter or two where it worked out and that's what people cling too...just like for the longest time everyone was obsessed with weak La Nina's because of 1995-1996.

From a common sense perspective that makes sense, but it clearly isn't playing out that way so there must be some sort of meteorological reasoning. We can attribute it to "bad luck" but the atmosphere doesn't work on luck, the atmosphere and weather are governed by principles, physics, etc. The atmosphere is telling us a story and we need to dive deep into the woods to figure out this story. I really hope deep in the modeling and physics worlds, there is work being done to better understand how/why the atmosphere has evolved these last few years...why these faster flow, why models are struggling with it. The only way forecast models can improve on this is if we better understand the process and then taking that knowledge and translating that into mathematical language so computer forecast models can understand it. There clearly is a reason as to why things just aren't working out and we do have some basic ideas and knowledge into this, but hoping for things to play out in favor just because the chances seem to be there isn't meteorologically correct. We are seeing the same thing over and over...fast flow, certain guidance over amplifying in specific time ranges, a whole lot of models guidance swings inside 72 hours...there are reasons for this.

you're right. January 5th is the latest sunrise (~7:19 AM) then it gets earlier from there. Its like the 10th/11th when we start gaining by the minutes

Actually after going through the last few winters...I would much rather than one shortwave every 10 days. There clearly is meteorological reasonings and physics involved as to why these fast flows with many shortwaves just don't pan out. I legit am starting to believe the mindset now of "rather having many shortwaves and hoping it pans out" is just a defensive mechanism to try and bring hope to something which just isn't there.

I think its even later than that actually...like closer to Jan 10?

This is sick

Will feel like summer

Challenge is the schedule has been absolutely insane with the league having to adjust for the two week break. Maybe play him every other game or something. But with the way the D has been crushed with injuries I don’t think they can afford to have him just play 10-15 minutes a game

Agreed

I don’t think Mcavoy should be coming back this soon, but I think he is trying to get a spot on the Olympic team. But he lost 20 pounds and I don’t think is still able to eat solid food. I can’t see him being able to play the 23:46 he’s averaging a game.

I hope getting this cold out of the way now means that we warm up late February or March otherwise this is going to be long and grueling.

Assuming the NHL has some private meteorologists, I’m sure they have their fingers crossed looking at this and are rooting for a GFS like solution for New Years. Who schedules outdoor hockey games in southern Florida? Idk if it’s January.

Don’t care when it happens but I hope the pattern does relax some and reloads. But watch the time period of when/if this occurs because that could offer up a KU chance. As to what happens after the re-load…who knows but apply some tweaks to this pattern and we could be in for some times in January

I love the Winter Storm Watches that get hoisted in the midwestern states for 1-2" of snow with winds gusting 50-70 mph. That has to be epic

If this piece of PV energy that's closed off could even dig into the base of the trough just a tick earlier this would allow for LP to explode just south of Long Island. Might actually be some room to get the Cape a decent whack out of this