weatherwiz

The best part IMO is getting data faster

But AI handled the advection of cirrus clouds very well between the hours of 9:00 PM - 12:00 AM so maybe it will do well the next time we have cirrus advecting in!!!!!!!!

Well at least a coating did fall...and then another couple inches on top of it

Explains why your forecasts have gone downhill

The real problem I think would be if the strong blocking persists. We would probably get chances as the block is materializing and then we'd want to hope for the block to relax or break down a bit and that could come with some chances. But if a big block materializes and becomes established...then we may be screwed

I love the euro op phasing of a TPV piece with southern stream energy across the Carolinas towards the end of the run lol

yeah soundings are quite inverted there. Looked like though there could be room for a line with thunder/lightning. Probably the only way to draw down any good gusts.

some violence for the Cape on the 6z HRRR

I wonder if we could see some snow squalls into western areas late Friday afternoon

yeah and they seem to target coastal VA/NC. Should be getting a new D3 update though within the next 5-15 minutes.

If the fun weather can't come to you, you go to it. I don't think I've ever seen a civil emergency message for wind before. Sure its happened but must be rare

NAM/GFS do have an insane LLJ at 925 materialize across eastern CT/RI/E MA through Friday morning...so something to definitely keep an eye on if that can be tapped into. This does happen to coincide with the leading edge of the main rain area too, however, there is a stout inversion too

I wouldn't be shocked if that ridging in the south is too smoothed out too. I would wager probably more of a ridge axis into the upper Mississippi Valley which could then argue for some lower heights in the Northeast The overall structure of that trough across western Canada's coast will be a big player too

The stratosphere is certainly going to try and help get us a favorable Arctic domain.

I hope its 85F on April 17 so I can watch playoff hockey outside with just a jersey on

My recommendation for those people then would be to move to the Sierra's or Cascades lol. I mean if we're active with 3-4" events and people are still complaining then something is wrong. Surely we all want the big storm but there has to be some sort of realistic expectation too.

I could see a marginal get thrown up for far eastern CT/RI/SE MA. the NAM would certainly argue it but sometimes the NAM gets a little overzealous with elevated in stability in these setups. NAM does have a pocket of steeper mid-level lapse rates (and greater CAPE) but I think its overdone in that regard. The key for eastern areas will be little to no shower activity ahead of the main area

Yeah I agree, I definitely would like to start getting some bigger systems, but if we can pull off a good two week stretch where we get 3-4 systems in the 2-4" range...I would hope that makes everyone a bit happier lol.

The 27-29 period looks like it could be interesting

Well this isn't fair. Damn you Idaho

when you're in the Cascades

The NBM does really well with sky cover forecasts I think. Out of MOS/NBM, the NBM was the only guidance bringing in these clouds through the day today followed by some clearing late afternoon/evening then increasing late.

I have these thoughts too. I've been creating composites of SSTs focusing on the Pacific for EL Nino/La Nina dating back to 1900 with a focus on the WPWP. There's lots of studies out there discussing how it has expanded over the last 2-3 decades along with the extension of the WHWP. But even with the Nina look...those 29-30C temps are extending well east, just past the dateline. Definitely sufficient to sustain strong convection around the dateline which I believe is something that enhances ridging across the NPAC?

Do you have any blog posts which have explored the snowless periods of previous decades? I am really curious how this stretch compares/contrasts to those periods. I've always been under the impression those periods were the product of colder/drier winters (or moreso drier) while as this stretch we are still pulling off subpar seasons even when we're cold/wet. I mean who cares if we've gone through this before in the 1980's if its for completely different reasons.

Despite the -PDO having leveled off, I think its still severely screwing us with shifting the East Asian jet north.