weatherwiz

It's been a great gradual increase in warmth/humidity through the day. Working outside and I've really felt this increase in the last few hours. The sweat slowly develops and you can feel yourself starting to stick to the leather chair all so slowly...its like applying a fine strip of super glue to a broken piece of glass. My shorts are that glue

Torched mid-levels suck.

That is true But I think 2-6km lapse rates are a better metric to use when assessing damaging wind gusts potential versus the standard "low-level lapse rates" which I think are measured 0-3km?

hmmm...not sure what he is referring to with steep lapse rates. Mid-level lapse rates are garbage so I am assuming he means low-level lapse rates...but not sure how steep those are tomorrow regionally due to lots of cloud cover. Probably a better chance llvl lapse rates are steeper across southeast PA into NJ but not sure if they will be anything to write home about. Not sure I see much risk for an isolated tornado there...if any risk existed it would be in central New England, closer to the warm front. Winds down there veer more in the llvls as the warm front lifts farther northeast.

Tomorrow may not see much lol. It's extremely warm aloft. +9C to +10C at 700 and -7C at 500mb. Actually kind of sucks because forcing/shear isn't terrible.

It really blows. I would really kill for a repeat of 2008 with the constant cold pools. June and July were insane with the daily thunderstorms and hail. Would even be better if we could get 90's squall lines again but that seems like a distant thing of the past.

Yup...looks like best will be southwest (of course). Might have to watch central/northern New England though around the warm front. SPC hints at it too...but could be potential for a TOR or two if there is enough destabilizing there

This is summer weather. This is New England, not the desert Southwest. Lower elevations away from the coastal Plain climbing into the 80's for highs and higher elevations/coast you take a few degrees off.

Better late than never! I always enjoy these type of days, it’s crazy how it can be so cloudy/cool/drizzle then several hours later hot and humid. I was outside with the dog right as the crap was clearing out and feel the change in real time

GWDLT. would need a jacket sitting outside

I give this 9/10 10/10 would be the other day when it was 100/73

What a phenomenal evening

I like the shear, just have to destabilize sufficiently.

I'm not a huge fan of temperature anomaly maps. They're useful but terrible for communication purposes.

Well hoping we can maybe muster some good convection potential Tuesday. Timing should be more favorable but may have to deal with AM crap/clouds

yeah we get that weak front moving through end of week with high pressure building in but looks like its a one day ordeal and we flip to very warm/humid for Saturday.

Next Saturday should be solidly into the 80's (obviously except immediate coastal probably and the higher elevations) and Saturday night will be into the 60's for lows.

This would probably help with the idea of "too many tools in the box". There are so many models and data to digest, who really has time to do all of that? If the energy and focus can be spent on a few models to improve assimilation and initialization that would go a substantial way in improving forecast accuracy and confidence.

Was shocked to see that mentioned. Isn't that a "newer product anyways"? I forgot when HREF became operational but I feel like it was at least in the last 10 years?

Interesting. Assuming this could be a big positive in more resources would be available for the RRFS instead of running all these various short-term mesos.

mid 80's may be tough but we will be warming the llvls through the day with a northwesterly flow so probably have to tack on 2-3F to the 2m progs.

Timing blows a bit tomorrow but western areas could see some storms during the early evening. Probably see marginal expanded east some with an upgrade to a slight risk in there

Sure could be! I was thinking about you when I was looking at that earlier haha. I knew you would provide some in depth analysis on this. Good call Kevin yesterday

Actually I wonder if Berkshire County could get some strong storms late Sat afternoon or early evening

Tuesday could be a fun day...start of NHL free agency and maybe some strong storms!