weatherwiz

Looks like Hawaii will get hit AGAIN. Rainfall forecast of 15-30"+ across the Big Island...yikes

The NAM very well may go out on a very sad demise

I noticed that yesterday looking out the window. Had to take a second and more closer look...haven't seen clouds stream in from that direction in a while. They were hauling too

a few models

This could be another great test for AI guidance. However, didn't we have some similar scenarios last winter (maybe not truly anomalous as this setup is given time of year) but where we saw AI guidance holding steady and then collapsed towards traditional guidance inside of like 48-60 hr?

Only a couple of weeks until the NAM is toast (unless that gets pushed again). I don't know why I thought of this but it's kind of funny, just thinking of how many models have been introduced and retired since the Cowboys last won a Super Bowl

Definitely a much less impressive LLJ on the Euro (except towards the Cape). One thing that seems noticeable too is differences with the handling of the high to the north (on all guidance)

That was a sounding from New Haven he posted

40-60 mph gusts is a pretty big deal when you have fully leaves trees, especially when you're talking about a long-duration of those gusts. Summer thunderstorms which gust in that range for like 20 seconds knock down tree limbs and power lines

Oh my lawdy

I think there is also some potential this could become a deeper storm than what is being advertised now, especially given it starts warm core and how it may take its time transitioning to more of a cold core. Another factor in this too is how the upper-level wind field evolves. At least on the Euro, look at how the structure of the ULJ evolves...that is very favorable for enhanced diffluence aloft which would further factor into the strengthening of the storm and wind fields. Lots of interesting processes will be undergoing with this thing. Sexy science at work

Yeah we can't ignore the rainfall aspect of this. This is a setup in which models (even the more aggressive models) could underplay rainfall totals. As impressive as the Euro is with rainfall totals, it could still be underdone (taking verbatim). That is a continuous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic and the system takes its sweet time occluding. There could be a swath of some substantial rainfall totals.

Agreed with that. But to be clear (though this may not matter) I was referring to H5 in general (across CONUS) - not just the specific feature. But I get what you're saying.

This is where you have to wonder whether the Euro's parameterization scheme just remains far superior to the GFS. I mean compare H5 of the Euro to the GFS from the 0z run at initialization. Now one could argue it's "noise" or subtle differences but IMO those differences for an initialization are rather large. I would also re-suggest the argument of the lack of upper-air observations within the region the s/w is traversing but the counter-argument to that would be - why is that not impacting the Euro...perhaps an answer to that would be...the euro is just more superior with initializing processes haha. Anyways, this post comes across as Euro is right and GFS is wrong - obviously we don't know that but lets say the Euro ends up scoring the scoop on this and blows the GFS away...may as well just put the GFS away.

One thing to keep in mind with this potential system too is it being warm core and how long it maintains its warm core

yeah definitely interested to see what recon finds with this

May be talking about potential for hurricane force gusts along the coasts. But yeah I'm really intrigued to see what hi-res is like with the LLJ and really start digging into mixing potential. Have to watch too for some elevated CAPE grazing the coast

what a beast

Hopefully utility companies getting some help on standby

that is a monster LLJ too on the Euro...and one that encompasses a large geographic area

What's interesting on the EPS is you see the two clustered areas that you mention, however, then there is a convergence of the two camps backing in west.

IDK...Euro has that look of backing in. Maybe it ends up east of previous runs but that H5 look through 120-126 seems to scream getting tugged in

Yup and at this point strength is not necessarily important. In fact, if one is looking for prolonged impacts you'd probably not want this getting as deep as it can get because that would probably result in a quicker occlusion. But because of the potential anomalous track of this system, the angle in which this may bank in is going to be more of a player versus strength.

Polo looks about ripe for IR

GEFS east but still a ton of spread and some interesting members. The GFS does have an east or OTS bias with coastal's though not sure if really only applies with winter and dealing with Arctic airmasses. If 12z euro is similar to at least yesterday's runs this is going to be a hell of a battle between the suites. One of them is going to get totally schooled