weatherwiz

20 days to go!!!

Also, there is much more to it than what the charts show. Structure/placement of the anomalies are more important than the raw value itself. A -NAO/-AO doesn't always equate to blocking. In that graphic, the NAO is largely forecast to be more of a weak signal with larger spread towards the end of guidance (typical), albeit the AO is forecast to be a bit more in the way of negative. Based on an evolution of the 500 pattern (at least on 12z GFS) one could argue the greatest potential for cooler temperatures associated with any negative AO would be northern Plains.

The one thing to keep in mind with using ocean temps (especially present or very recently) are the changes ongoing within the PDO domain, AMO, and of course ENSO region. But alot of studies and data have shown SSTs have increased over the years (hence the development of the RONI to incorporate this signal). It is also very likely that we are now headed towards the negative phase of the AMO so naturally we *should* begin seeing the Atlantic cool.

I don't think there is anything wrong with using a shorter period or using a longer period, but like I stated the user and readers just need to be aware and any conclusions being drawn need to factor this in. Quite a bit of information can be gained using both. Comparing to a shorter period and a longer period, you are more likely to see areas of higher anomalous values and when compared to the longer mean, you can get a sense of where "change" may be occurring more rapidly.

I don't think he was using anything incorrectly but you do do bring up a good point about data use. (The rest of this statement is speaking in generalized terms, not directed towards anyone here). Data use can be extremely fickle and sensitive, particularly when using reanalysis data. It's always important that 1) The user has a strong understanding of the strengths/weaknesses of the dataset and 2) If the user is presenting writing a paper, the user clearly state these strengths/weaknesses. There was a paper I was reading late last fall which was looking at the different versions of the ERSST dataset and I think comparing v6 versus v5 and a few previous versions and certain areas of the globe where there were noticeable discrepancies. And these discrepancies also had an impact on OLR anomalies and so forth. So its always important to understand strengths, weaknesses, limitations, etc. when dealing with datasets. I've really learned this the hard way doing so much with datasets and reanalysis from years as far back as 1900

I remember reading your post with your thoughts on the March map. I would have shared your thoughts...but pretty interesting to see. whoops, I read past it I saw it just after Steve posted the link

Thanks!! I feel like I had this site bookmarked at one point but probably lost it when something happened with my bookmarks. Curious if they will roll over to ERSSTv6 at some point

Wow, I totally missed that. I'll have to read some more into it. I wonder if this CORe is just a more improved dataset?

what site can you pull that from? Are you able to choose our own climatology periods or does it provide a list? I've used this https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/ You can create your own climatology period by subtracting from dataset two and using the years to subtract. I really like this because say I wanted to look at 1974...it's nice to see how 1974 compared to the 1941-1970 climo instead of just to the current climo (and even better because you can do both and see where the greatest changes have occurred)

was going to try and create a composite comparing March to 1971-2000, 1981-2010, and 1991-2020 climo but March 2026 not available yet on the reanalysis page. Also just found out that NCEP/NCAR R1 is being discontinued

These days I think are extremely underrated from a scientific aspect. There is something about watching the temps just absolutely sky rocket once mixing gets cranking. It's even more fun when you're in the sun because you can feel the science doing its thing. Love it

Still looks like we're largely under the influence of high pressure on Sunday though...looks pretty dry. We increase mid-level moisture/clouds through the day. Perhaps some showers late in the day or moreso overnight but I hear soggy and I think rain most of the day

Not a bad day today. At least it will be nice going into Hartford to see the shitty Wolf Pack play. Only reason I was going to go tonight was see Hagens play. Now I'm going to be stuck watching the awful Wolf Pack.

where are they getting "soggy" for on Sunday?

Totally went over my head. But with that yup...imagine having that assistance then.

I might be off on the time period actually. I had thought there were some significant tropical waves in that region which led to multiple significant tropical systems (where parts of Australia was hit multiple times) but I think that was actually more late January or something.

wasn't there a (or multiple) significant tropical systems in that part of the hemisphere around that time?

Dried mud

Wow. Guess just pretty lucky here. But lots of areas probably dry up quite a bit over the next few days.

Remember when everyone was worried about mud lol. Might be the most overrated worry come spring time. Its literally muddy for like 3 days and that's it. Unless you live in a field of dirt

Yeah the strength of the few WWBs we've seen this early is pretty noteworthy. If we maintain surges of WWB moving into the summer we are goin to see EL Nino become established rather quickly

The only thing I can see is GWDLT

Certainly can't rule that out this early in the season

I agree with that, however, I think what we'd have to watch for is cloud cover from upstream precipitation/convection...though perhaps shear vectors favor us avoiding this mess.

Wednesday could be socked in with clouds, though could be some potential to get some breaks in