weatherwiz

It does have that look to it.

It's definitely an extremely intriguing look and what I like about it is this type of pattern opens the door for some southern stream involvement and that would at least offer some potential for a bigger storm. But why I also love the Jan 10-15 period is we may see a relaxing NAO during that period, or the NAO becoming less negative and at the same time we're seeing variations within the state of the PNA. The pattern will not be void of energy and storm chances. If we want to add another layer to this is we will have the PV displaced on our side of the hemisphere.

The overall look isn't terrible, in fact, it's probably better to see than these "great looking patterns" that haven't seemed to materialize the last few winters. There will be multiple storm chances over the next 2-3 weeks, probably on the order of one system every 6-9 days.

I am pretty intrigued in the period of Jan 10-15. But we have a light snow event tomorrow, probably another one in a week, then there could be some room for a bigger storm moving towards mid-month.

This isn't a terrible looking sounding on the Cape. Def unstable in the lowest 3km But can anyone say Martha's vineyard jackpot?

Yup...great post. The environment isn't too terribly far off from what you would see with a LES environment. Should actually be some weak instability present...not sure if we're looking at enough to yield thunder potential but I could see a very narrow area of enhanced lift. Someone could def pull off 3-4" on the Cape

snow flurries falling!

Hey I'm with you...I have no doubt we will cone out of it and we will get smoked again. I get there is a luck factor in this and there are things we don't truly know or understand, but all we can do is try to use data and knowledge to further understand. At this point we are closer to getting out of this and I can't see us staying in this drought for much longer. It's more of a theory at this point so I don't have a ton of data or reanalysis maps I can throw into this...but would be a fun project to dig deeper. Anyways, we have to look at the jet stream on a global scale and all the influences which shape the jet stream structure, position, and strength. As you know, when the jet stream is faster, it becomes more difficult to really amplify the jet stream (not impossible but just more difficult). I just think that where we are positioned globally, we are in a spot in which the faster winds result in an increased probability for amplification to our west and then just to our east. Where I've started to develop this idea was based on some of the weather across the West the last few years. Remember a few years back the West was getting absolutely pummeled for a 6 week stretch which was something more akin to what you would see in EL Nino versus La Nina. The orientation and structure of the jet stream was not what you would typically see. This is all a ramble...but I will eventually get back to you with more coherent thoughts.

It's not like it's just applicable to our area though, the concept would apply to other areas of the globe too. For us it's just a product of where we reside regionally.

correct, and the faster (or slower) flows aloft play a significant role in where ridge/trough axes occur.

Actually that would be incorrect. Fast flow doesn't necessarily inhibit storms from bombing out nor does changes in the size and structure of the Hadley Cell. They just influence the jet stream differently and shift around regions which are favorable for deep cyclogenesis. A faster flow makes it more likely for storms to bomb out farther to our west versus towards the coast and then for storms to bomb out as they move just off the coast towards Atlantic Canada.

What a quiet year and really stretch we have been in for the severe weather department. Although I did get that gustnado back in April which was cool. That September 6 event was pretty crazy though

I think the storm knocked out my internet. Been out for 3 hours. How am I supposed to watch hockey tonight???

The observer must still be salty about the Bills going for 2 and not paying attention

yup...that's a beauty of a shortwave digging in and amplifying.

I could see accumulating snow possible for far southeastern Mass Wednesday night into Thursday with that system. That's a heck of an amplifying shortwave trough moving across the region. In fact, I would not be surprised if that ended up resulting in SLP a bit farther south and west than what the GFS has. Wouldn't take a heck of a lot to get it to blossom a bit earlier

BUF gusted to 70 mph about 30 minutes ago...nice

yeah I don't understand why there isn't at least a wind advisory into CT and arguably even a HWW.

Feb 06 was awesome in West Hartford. Got 14" in 3 hours with thunder snow. Ended up with 27" I believe

Was that the one where the SLP got really low and it resulted in the precipitation to become more banded in nature versus a uniform precip shield. It was like a tropical storm with heavy bands of snow and nothing in between.

Very odd. I was just looking at bufkit, both NAM and GFS for BOS and it is going to rip tomorrow. Even the NAM which tends to undermix has gusts > 50-55 mph.

Surprised the HWW doesn't go out to eastern Mass for tomorrow

The fog is pretty wild

Just checked the power outages and hardly anything lol. Just over 8K within New Hampshire

I don't think you're going to see much in the way of damage or power outages with temps hovering 32 and moving into the daylight hours