weatherwiz

Even if we get some breaks of sun I don't think we are going to see any sufficient mixing. Forecast soundings (both NAM/GFS) are overly enthused with mixing potential. Obviously if we are able to break and mix (maybe happens locally) temperatures will jump quickly.

Precisely, there is a delicate balance and that needs to be understood.

These next 10-15 years will be critical in the CC aspect and exactly how much of an influence CC has had. So much has been talked about regarding the lack of Arctic ice cover, the abundance of active Atlantic hurricane seasons and increasing number of storms undergoing RI, the western/mid-western droughts and excessive heat waves...all of these are also a result of the PDO/AMO state we have been in. So the question is, did CC just further exacerbate the intensities? But what happens once we get the PDO/AMO to flip? If we're continuing to see these recent trends continue with a flipped ATL/PAC that could speak volumes. Even though we are barely into spring, it is definitely encouraging looking at some of the very early analogs for the upcoming winter. Would much rather be seeing looks similar to the 1957-1958, 1969-1969, 2002-2003 versus something along the like of a say 1997-1998 or 2015-2016. Obviously those were in the super category but the point is...the very early signs at least yield some encouragement TBH, if any of the early signs pointed to one of those years I'd probably just not even bother doing any digging for the upcoming winter lol

1000% you could, without question. In terms of winters moving forward, I absolutely think we're in for some better times and we will see majority of winters produce versus not producing. I think too the (decreasing) AMO is going to help big time in this regard as well and may even bring back those good ole fashion NAO blocks...like true blocks in which we benefit from. I would not be surprised though if we still had some dud winters mixed in through the remainder of the decade because who knows how long it will take the atmosphere to truly respond to the large-scale oceanic changes but we should be heading in the right direction.

I have to think that we are in the beginning stages of seeing an improved PAC. But as you stated, with how warm the west PAC is there needs to be some caution in this. I'm having a ton of fun. I can't speak for other programs are, it's totally possible other programs are much more extensive with the math (but it probably depends on what you're seeking). TBH though its been a bit too easy so far, I was hoping for a bit more of a challenge. This isn't to say I am not getting anything out of it, I have learned some techniques with respect to winter forecasting, especially within the medium-range and evaluating models to help with trying to identify potential trends and model weaknesses. The section we're doing in this class though on seasonal forecasting though is really just basic stuff...going over things like PDO/AMO/ENSO/QBO but not in any great depth. But the professor is quite experienced so the real value comes from him sharing his experiences and knowledge. This is what I love most. I actually have the same professor for both classes I'm taking now and he is awesome.

Would not be surprised to see some accumulating snow for the ski areas up north Tuesday

I saw one right outside yesterday. In fact, I think I've seen a quite a few of these recently

Going over seasonal forecasting stuff in my and lecture video was about all the different tools and such, professor showed an example of the CANSIPS for next winter and right away that look reminded me of 1957-1958...maybe even a bit of 1968-1969 . It will be interesting to see where we head, not just in terms of ENSO but PDO/AMO as well...we may very well be in the beginning of a long-term shift in both basins

I feel like there is not much of a correlation between water temperatures and backdoor cold front potential. Perhaps there would be a correlation to the strength of the boundary or maybe the distance the front can traverse. But even when water temperatures are above average this early, they are still pretty chilly. Ultimately its likely tied into synoptic or sub-synoptic flow.

Yeah clouds rolled in quickly here...went from nice and bright to probably needing to turn a light on

30 days to go That is not an April Fools joke, we're into the final month before May.

And that they did!

Hopefully they bring the energy they had in the first

Thank God Bruins have been winning because everyone else has too. It’s amazing how so many teams are alive but they all win lol. Bruins still have a legit shot to get 2nd in the division. 1st isn’t impossible but slim

Looks like a TDS over Bainbridge, NY

Looking good for western MA and far NW CT AWT

That sucks man, sorry to hear

Early evening will be interesting across western Mass and far northwest CT.

Anyone have any stats on how well those extended range snowfall maps verified from like 10+ days ago?

because March has 31 days

Time to charge up the camcorder

yup...had that look yesterday on guidance. Was waiting to see if SPC would expand the marginal and they just did

plenty of Strawberry Mojitos over the weekend in Miami

Very possible and in fact, most likely given what has been said. The Bruins are huge in having their forwards being able to play both sides of the puck well and having a strong game off the puck. This is the sole reason why Lysell has not been given much of an opportunity. I think this is a great philosophy to have, however, I think sometimes in hurts the Bruins too.

Some striking differences though on the mesos with the HRRR and (to some degree) RRFS the more aggressive of the guidance.