weatherwiz

yup going to want to watch that dewpoint/MUCAPE gradient. I also have to say...things are evolving a good 3-4 hours earlier then I was anticipating. But this is where we stand with MUCAPE. Activity may come through early enough that the storms remain surfaced-based which could mean an increased risk for damaging wind gusts well into the region. But to go along with Scott's posts about the dewpoints, there is a significant drop off in MLCAPE values away from the coast as drier air mixes down. Have to see when/if they rebound

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Fairfield County

ahhh there is nothing like the sound of unsticking your shorts from your body. You have to do it very slowly and in a very quiet environment but its a very pleasant and soothing sound for the ears and your spiritual body.

I think we're going to see a pretty nasty cluster of thunderstorms moving northeast across CT into MA this evening. Should be a quite a bit of lightning with flash flooding as a concern. Not sure if there will be damaging wind potential throughout but I could see a pocket of wind damage into southwestern Hartford County from NJ, southeast NY, and through Fairfield County

Could easily grab the data from Iowa State but it felt like you really had to wait until August to get 70F dewpoints...they would happen in June or July but it was a short duration...likely just out ahead of an approaching cold front. I also remember back in the late 2000's when I became introduced to weather models and even maybe early 2010's...we'd see the NAM go with dewpoints like 72-73-74 and it would be tossed. The NAM had a tendency to go bonkers with dewpoints. Now you see those dewpoints modeled and there's no tossing lol

You would think with the increasing dews and longevity of higher dewpoints (we'll say 70+) that would yield potential for stronger and more widespread events but that has not been the case. This is more thought so data could prove otherwise, but it also seems like summer cold fronts have a tendency to be weaker (which would make some deal of sense given a warmer Arctic). Just from memory though with the 90's it felt like these periods of excessive dews were much less common and we had to wait until like August to really get them. When we did get those hot and humid days the duration was barely heat wave criteria and it would end with a strong front, a big line of storms and then we would have a stretch of days with 70's to lower 80's and dewpoints in the 50's. We'll probably eventually cycle back but the dataset is so small its hard to say what the return rate for such a stretch is. Maybe there is a bit of luck involved too. It seemed like we timed good EMLs with fronts pretty well from the mid-to-late 90's and then went forever without a good EML event.

Its always cool to compare stats versus memory. But it does feel like we used to do much better with convection in the 90's then we have for quite some time..and by that I mean these elongated squall lines (or usually multiple) that would be draped from like Maine into the mid-Atlantic. I remember many times during the summer watching the weather channel and following the radar on the Local on the 8's and seeing these squall lines moving from NY/PA into SNE...and more times than not they would fizzle before reaching West Hartford But I also remember several times a summer getting really loud overnight thunderstorms and evenings where the sky would just be lit up from distant thunderstorms and it seemed like the lightning would just go on for hours. It seemed like every period of high heat/humidity not only came with thunderstorms but multiple instances and the overnight stuff. 1990's were the king of the squall lines (and into the early 2000's).

Will be interesting. Like you said last night too, dewpoints will spike back up this evening. Something to also watch because that may boost sfc instability a bit more or even maintain, despite losing the sun. May yield some room to keep convection sfc based and maybe a wind threat continuing into the region. I think its encouraging seeing CAMs continuing with activity tonight, though I wouldn't expect them to handle it very well.

The HRRR may be a bit too aggressive with weakening that activity tonight. One big key I think will be how organized the cluster is as it develops across PA/NJ (does it develop a cold pool to sustain on?) and what we are looking at for MUCAPE. Kind of hard to see an organized cluster weaken if MUCAPE is still pushing 2000+ J

Was doing my last final earlier and happened to look out the window and saw this cutie. sitting outside watching distance flashes every now and then from the stuff to the northeast

hey they get plenty of days in the Plains with double the MLCAPE and nada because they capped out the fanny

S NH/MA/N CT

Going to be a loud night tomorrow somewhere in this area

There may be a cluster of elevated storms tomorrow night tracking northeast across the region. Would be quite the light show. Then we'll have to see if we can bust out into sun on Saturday but could see widespread storms and maybe even several pockets of wind damage

I am hoping we can pump 80's and dewpoints into the 70's into November. Can sit outside and watch football and hockey...that would be epic.

This isn't bad for D3. I'm not huge into these products but assessing everything you can see the potential is there and when you supplement with this product its certainly a real signal.

Saturday could be a pretty good widespread day of storms with some strong-to-severe storms

Won't have any time to dig into winter analysis but I really am curious how this winter will go. I do find it extremely hard to believe though this will not be a well above average for much of the U.S. With how expansive the 28-30C waters are (and still growing) expansive ridging is going to be too dominant. Hard to see anything really combating that. Probably be dealing with a raging jet too...but with that, maybe we get something and we benefit in a big way from a powerful jet

Instability pretty large tomorrow. Shear certainly doesn't look great so probably looking at some pulse type. Will probably see a ton of lightning in any storms and a localized FF risk where storms occur.

Monday could be a decent severe setup too. Going to be an active several days in the convective department. Certainly going to start seeing some increased flood concerns too. Time to toss those drought maps

I am surprised we don't have at least a marginal risk for Friday

got a marginal just off to the west with the new D3

#4 seems like it was already perfect as is.

May even have some decent severe potential next week

I'm actually not so sure we really see dews mix down during the day on Thursday. Well...I should say, not mix below 70. Probably would start the day 73-76F but mix down to like 71-72