weatherwiz

wish this was just a few hours later but yeah maybe farther east has a slim shot

Beautiful day indeed Home opener for the Wolf Pack in Hartford tonight, couldn't ask for a better day

A vigorous shortwave trough crosses the region late Sunday night and Monday with strong cold front and triple point moving across the region Monday morning. This system will be characterized by a potent 80+ knot mlvl jet streak and 60-70+ knots of bulk shear overspreading the region to go along with steeping mid-level lapse rates associated with cooling temperatures aloft. Out ahead of the shortwave trough, a strong southerly flow will develop pumping in an unseasonably moist low-level air mass. The combination of an unseasonably moist low-level airmass combined with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (~ 6.5 C/KM) should yield upwards of 250-500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Bulk shear values in excess of 60-70 knots combined with vigorous forcing will likely promote a squall line consisting of heavy rain, thunder/lightning, and strong-to-damaging wind gusts along the leading edge, moving across the region early-to-late morning Monday. Forecast soundings exhibit enough low-level turning, particularly in the vicinity of the triple point to warrant potential for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes.

Always amazes me how everything perfectly aligned to produce such a violent tornado. And add in the fact that it was a left moving supercell. The odds of such an occurrence have to be insane.

may have to reschedule But this is a pretty intriguing setup. Triple point crossing the region with steep mid-level lapse rates and a surge of higher theta-e air.

Definitely becoming more intrigued with early Monday morning, particularly out towards eastern sections. Could see a narrow stretch of wind damage and maybe a tornado

Yeah you had a pretty solid call I'd say and really nailed that big lull which is big kudos.

The timing on this has slowed quite a bit. Going to be one heck of a squall going across the region.

Man that is a violent shortwave coming through early Monday.

Tropical isn't really a high knowledgeable area of mine, but I thought coming into the season it wasn't going to be a hyperactive season just going off the basics. I think sometimes with this advance in technology and models there is too much infatuation with models and their outputs. Reading the seasonal outlooks from NOAA/Colorado, they always mention how simulations are ran hundreds or thousands of times...sometimes you just have to use the basics and knowledge.

What adds more interest to this IMO is it seems a lot of "correlations" we had been very familiar with have diminished over the past decade-plus as well. Now, the easy answer here is that is just a product of increasing our sample size (data set). This is likely certainly a factor, but how strong of a factor? But I suspect something else is going on too...and the way to come to that conclusion is when you break everything down into how we understand things and basic principles and you're getting results that don't make sense. also, if I understand correctly, the correlation is geared more towards the evolution of the AO? Lots of influences on the state and evolution of the AO, especially stratospheric processes.

Perfectly stated

The snow cover advance has to be one of the biggest frauds out there.

I'm ready!

A bit over two months until the sun starts setting later. Stuff that in your Halloween bags

GFS could be a decent fall severe weather event with several tornadoes for western and central PA Sunday. Could see a solid line of storms move across here overnight.

Could be interesting for a few hours early AM from just north of Los Angeles to just north of San Diego

Small plane crashed on I95 in Dartmouth looks like around 9 AM

A widespread 5-6'' is going to be tough to come by I think because once occlusion occurs smaller-scale processes will then factor into where any heavier rain occurs, but a widespread 2-4" I think is very doable. I would not be surprised though to see some 6-8" amounts locally, particularly along the coast (but a bit inland). Probably see a secondary max too up north across east facing slopes

One big difference of note too is the timing. Window for some of the worst weather was more Sunday...Sunday night, maybe early Monday morning but the NAM would have this occur more during the day Monday. Not sure how much I buy into the NAM evolution though. Something to watch though is potential for elevated convection from southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and far eastern Mass. Elevated convection typically not favorable for producing wind, however, because of the strong llvl jet any elevated convection would surely help mix down some of that llvl jet. I could see gusts 55-65 mph along the immediate coast with sustained winds 25-35ish. It will be windy inland due to the pressure gradient but I don't think we'll see much in the way of higher wind gusts. Probably wouldn't even really see any gusts above 30-35.

The initial rainfall rates are going to be insane.

sometimes the consistency is a bit bizarre Fair point. Stupid

yeah it starts out warm core but then transitions quickly. probably why nhc doesn't have a little lemon but then again they do for that feature near the Azores and gave it an Invest

some strong members too. coastal flooding would be quite significant. probably numerous power outages too from Long Island...probably even coastal SNE.

Definitely a back off of these winds across southern CT (at least on the 6z GFS).