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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
put the TV in front of the window -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Very heavy snow for early-to-mid afternoon, potentially approaching 1.5-2 inches per hour during the peak which could persist for several hours. Moderate snow continuing into the evening before tapering off. Going to be at least a good foot for all (except maybe shoreline where it could be more 9-10") -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
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“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
earlier this decade -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
The Winter lecture my professor just posted for winter weather forecast actually has a slide on Kuchera method. One of the bullet points Does not account for vertical velocity, depth of DGZ, saturation of DGZ, dry layers near surface, time of year, or stability Often overpredicts snowfall in in very cold airmasses and in marginal/mixing situations -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
That's why I am not a fan of the snow maps, all they do is just take forecast QPF and multiply that by a snow ratio. There is no factoring in of lift, snow growth, RH of the DGZ and RH with respect to ice crystals in the DGZ. What separates the Kuchera from 10:1 (besides the obvious being 10:1 maps are constant) is it factors in the average temperature of the llvls to compute a snow ratio. The Kuchera method I also believe was designed to be a tool for snowfall depth. There are a few moduels on MetEd which go into some depth on these maps. When it comes to verifying Kuchera versus what occurred, the results were/are not particularly great. -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
I don't think that is true. The only method which factors in lift and omega is the cobb technique. What the Kuchera (and 10:1) do when it comes to max banding is highlight where the greatest QPF is forecast (by the model) and where that coincides with what the model believes will be all snow -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
12z NAM bufkit BDL....LG....LFG. Look at that thump. And we get consistently good lift through the DGZ for the duration -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
100% And speaking of that, the snow side of things is overperforming in parts of the South, particularly Arkansas at least -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
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“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
The method uses like an average temperature of the lower troposphere to determine a snow ratio. I think in these situations with the very cold llvls below an above warm layer, yes the Kuchera method would "inflate" the output. The Kuchera method is so terrible...equally as worse as 10:1 maps -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Still don't see sleet having a large (negative) impact on snow totals down here. Maybe towards the shoreline it knocks off a few inches or so but not inland. -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Was looking at the omega -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
oh hells yeah -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
I’m really hoping this pans out and I can get a foot. My girlfriend (who I met in 2021) moved up from Florida late 2018 or so and this would be the biggest storm she’s seen. Thought it would happen last year but Connecticut got crushed. I’m also hoping to see what the dogs reaction would be (if he cares). He’s coming the end and it would be cool to see if he would like it and go around in it with his doggy wheel chair -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
We can’t get greedy! -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
SWFE, NWFE, Miller A, Miller B, clipper, redeveloper…who cares. It’s going to snow and it’s going to snow a lot -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
You couldn’t ask for a better setup for the region given the last several years. Everyone wins in this setup. There really isn’t a screw zone. It’s a region wide dumping -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
meh we'll see how these cloud physics work out for me -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
With the way they plow here I wouldn't be shocked if they end up closed through Thursday. Probably won't see a plow on my street until Tuesday. -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Yeah I don't see sleet reducing totals anywhere. The bulk of everything already occurs. Its not a big deal -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Wasn't entirely sure I'd get to do into enough detail to make a forecast but alas I did. I originally had the whole area of 12-18" but wanted to highlight that potential for some higher amounts in northeast Mass...I think that signal could be very real. Didn't want to go crazy and throw out 18-24" contour so just bumped 12-18 to 10-15 to add a 15-20 area. This is what winter is all about!!!!!! LFG!!!!!!! Massive snowstorm and a Pats trip to the super bowl incoming. Someone pinch me I'm dreaming https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2026/01/significant-snowstorm-to-impact.html -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Its the 84 hr NAM gut that is a lot of DPVA throughout the day Monday (seem better animated of course) And we're in the left exit region of this monster jet streak -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
The coastal front is going to be insane. I think we know where the jackpot zone is going to be -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
weatherwiz replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
yeah not sure if its a cod thing but its a little funky in that regard. but thats the type of lift we want to see!
