weatherwiz

If we keep pushing back I can have fun with the running joke... pattern is changing by December 1...no December 10...christmas...New Years, definitely mid January, Feb will be big...hello spring! This is a great visual for context, thanks! MJO could be a factor too...just looked at euro/gfs forecasts. Both have a robust wave propagating into 6/7. Obviously MJO forecasting is extremely iffy at this range, but when you look at the GFS/euro evolution around/shortly after Thanksgiving...its a pretty damn close match to what you would expect for a transition from 6 to 7. So if the MJO signal ends up being overplayed...you may see significant changes to guidance for this period.

So essentially, (let's say it is occurring now or in the beginning phases), we probably wouldn't see that troposphere respond probably until late December?

I thought there was a weak signal up around 10 hpa which strengthened down around 30 hpa and especially 50 hpa? But I may have diagnosed incorrectly

We definitely want to watch the progression of the progression of the stratosphere too. The good news is, we already have a warming event ongoing and across the Canadian Arctic If you were to follow this progression on Dr. Lawrence's site, its a longer duration event too with the peak occurring somewhere in the 300 hr time frame This is important (when the peak occurs) because this would likely result in a PV split, which begins to occur towards the end of the run Getting a PV split will be critical because the main PV looks like it could end up over Europe, but if it splits, then we could get PV displacement onto our side of the hemisphere.

Let's really, really hope the PAC plays out and evolves like that. But even if it doesn't...if it can at least evolve to a degree where we can continue to further develop that later in the month...that would be a big change. I also wouldn't mind maintaining a stronger SE ridge...coastal peeps may not want that and of course that could be playing Russian Roulette but that would at least help with an active storm track with ejecting shortwaves from the southwest...then we just hope for a perfect trough axis to our west.

Yup...we briefly get a shot of cold air behind the post Thanksgiving time frame and then pup heights right back up ahead of the next system. But hopefully we really do start changing things after that front later in the first week of December. Praying we really do start building heights and ridging into the West so we stop with this building heights ahead of systems, then getting a shot of cold air, only to build heights up as the next trough digging into the west translates east. If we can sustained riding in the west...we won't have to completely worry about that...especially if we can then get some Arctic support on our side.

Euro with the 582dm heights into WV/MD and 576 to the NY/PA borer to kick off December. That would be some impressive warmth ahead of the cold front into the mi-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast (unless there happens to be any wedging).

Ahhh good thought, I do still have that in there. I also need to remember to shut off the valve to the outside water faucet.

Had heavy frost on the car this morning. Apparently I guess my windshield washer fluid was empty and my scrapper broke, so I had to waste 15-20 minutes waiting for window to defrost so I could drive

2003 was so much fun. That was my freshman year of high school and during lunch I'd be outside playing frisbee in the snow

Yeah down here not really sure you can really define that. but this makes sense now. I remember a comment from FXWX yesterday that said it's exceptionally tough down here...which it is.

catching up on late afternoon. What is the definition people are using when it comes to wire-to-wire. I thought it was referring to getting slammed in back-to-back winters, but is that not the case?

The HRRR I think is out to lunch. I was curious to see what the soundings looked like in the vicinity of the precip on the HRRR...did see some moistening of the profile but there is a quite a bit of dry air to overcome and being on the northern fringes of the precip shield...don't think that's going to do it. But maybe portions of Fairfield county are clipped with some better lvl moisture

Gotcha...yes. We definitely need to see this

The inconsistency may not be a terrible thing though. Sometimes inconsistency can be a signal that things are being shaken up and will change. But I think if we are to see things change it will be more towards mid December than early. I haven't paid attention much to the stratosphere stuff lately but what brooklynwx posted earlier was nice to see. Stratospheric warmings or a coupled stratosphere don't necessarily mean anything for us (this could just as easily have a greater impact on Europe depending on configuration/evolution) but getting something like this earlier in the season could be hue for us. I feel like some of the more recent, stronger episodes happened second half of winter, so by the time the lower troposphere felt the impacts, it was too late for us

That missing snowfall data pisses me off. I always forget what happened...it had to do with the switching from something to something but 1995-1996 was like 115.2" and I'm pretty sure 2002-20023 was over 80" or maybe 90" and I think is second highest on record for BDL..

maybe it was 03-04 and 04-05...or maybe it was like 02-03 good, 03-04 sucked, then 04-05 was great. Can't find my notebook. Guess I'll look online but the handling of the snowfall and tornado databases frustrates the hell out of me.

Wasn't there a back-to-back period there where BDL put up like 90" then 70"+?

Wasn't 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 like a wire-to-wire winter?

I would bank on this. Confluence has been superior more often that not the last several years across southeast Canada.

It's not worry, it's analysis, assessment, and questioning. There is way too much emphasis and focus on extended range EPS signals and not enough focusing on real time observations (current state/pattern) and evolution of the short term pattern to look for those signals which may begin driving the pattern. Patterns just don't magically change and don't magically change. There are typically day-to-day nuisances which will determine how the pattern unfolds and behaves. For example, let's say forecast models were showing a drastic change say D6 or D7 (even D5)...we would be able to see in the next day or two those pieces which will be responsible for the change and determine in the short term the validity of this change instead of chasing D10 EPS means.

Overall (at least 12z) the not much difference between the Euro/GFS ensembles outside of strength of key features and placement of the main anomaly centers but that is a warm look overall but can't dismiss any wedge potential like Scott said. But I don't really like the way the pattern is configured overall to elicit some big magical changes going through the first week of December. I think we'll certainly see some colder periods, like we've seen this month, but they are brief and more transient. There are multiple things we're fighting 1) Persistent evolution of lower heights and deep troughing across the West 2) A stout subtropical ridge which is flexed into the Southeast as those troughs amplify and dig into the west 3) Even with a -NAO look at times, which helps to bring in that colder air (for a brief period) you always have to watch for connecting heights across the east. Maybe things break down a bit moving through the first week of December but we're going to want to see something in real time (like in 7-10 days) that is in place that will not trigger it...not the it will change because it looks better at D10 ordeal

Have to watch for for what looks to be a 50/50 low which really works to compress the heights across the Northeast. Interesting to see how that plays out. The overall structure of the pattern though does favor at least near average temperatures but more than likely above. This feature could mute that, for a brief period anyway. There is going to be a lot of moving pieces (fast moving weak systems) embedded in the flow so like Will said...NNE might be able to cash in on something

I know our climo is mid January to mid February for our snows, but I really hate having to rely on that period to start playing "catchup". But this is more likely a product of the last several winters. But I'm so sick of this rut...we start super slow, then things start looking better towards peak, and then it's just a constant chasing of D10 pattern changes through peak climo, and then all of a sudden D10-15 all of a sudden is getting into and going through March. Then we get the best patterns in March when everyone is ready for warmer weather but end up with 35F rain storms while up north and higher elevations cash in

No disagreement there. My number one overall concern is just regarding the flow...it just remains overly strong and as long as that continues we're just going to have to really rely on threading the needle alot more and end up dealing with more "near misses" than not.