weatherwiz

I can dig 30s at night and then 50s and 60s during the day...preferably 60s but keep this going through November.

ehh I don't think that's how that really works. The overall scheme is much more complex than just "learning" from mistakes and misses. While its become apparent AI models are going to provide some tremendous value, at least in medium range forecasting, if we truly want to make a substantial leap with modeling we need two things 1) Superior computing (such as quantum computing) that is able to perform complex calculations at a much faster rate. Another key aspect about quantum computing is they will be able to handle and perform even calculations that are way more complex than what supercomputers can currently handle 2) The ability to initialize current state better (the Euro has been worlds ahead in this) and part of this goes into quantum computing and ability to handle and perform challenging complex equations. 3) Another challenge is putting knowledge, or our understanding on physical processes into mathematical terms to be computed. There is always going to be some sort of disconnect because we don't have a true 100% knowledge of every process which occurs during storm evolution (example: why some supercells with hooks produce tornadoes while others don't) so we can't 100% model that accurately. And models just can't learn that without us being able to feed it that information first.

I kind of have too...or at least don't put much stock into it.

What I've been finding interesting too is over the past few years (I'll even say several) it seems the big deviations don't even occur from incremental errors or differences that leads to the large differences...its like a switch flips at D3-4 and the divergence in guidance is through the roof. There will be subtle differences in key features through D3 and then all of a sudden D4...its like WTF just happened

I have a feeling this is going to be an absolutely horrific late spring/winter for forecasting. Just look at the differences between the Euro/GFS beginning at D3-4 lol...totally not even in the same ballpark with many of the upper-level features. Check out how the GFS/Euro handle that system digging into the PAC NW lol...its laughable

these climate model seasonal snow maps are a joke. what a waste of space and resources

That is just a product of the upper air pattern and what will ultimately steer it and probably due to the fact that the system is still quite unorganized

Interesting difference between the EPS mean and control moving into the first week of November. Control develops a stout +PNA/-AO combo but its not a typical pattern evolution of what you'd expect yielding that...also you would at least expect to get a much colder airmass from northern Canada or Arctic but that is not the case. Raging jet too...any systems moving onto the west coast (or into the southwest I should say) or going to fly across the country

yes

Two trees we have in the front yard had some amazing vibrant colors...mostly yellows. Both the trees though have pretty much dropped all their leaves. One I think has fully dropped and the other like 90% dropped. I don't really know tree species but its interesting because these are legit the only two trees in the neighborhood which have not only fully changed but dropped leaves.

Gotta say...the bots have been quite impressive with pattern recognition and just an overall better idea of the general idea of the larger-scale storm details (development, track). Certainly enough I think to give a big boost in confidence for medium-range forecasting. Not entirely sure about the inside 48-hours or storm specific details but they've been a big boost in the medium-range for sure.

Just your usual 5 AM supercells in Arizona

Hopefully we get a nice late Fall threat, otherwise May isn't too terribly far off

Enhanced risk added with the D2 this afternoon for hail

Maybe it’s acorns coming down

Didn’t even get a breeze here before the torrential rain. Some bright flashes though and long rumbles. We inversion

Woah just got a flash of lightning and thunder out of nowhere. Just before I was going to start video

I don’t understand the 60 mile wide warnings in these. All of this stuff besides the Litchfield stuff looks terrible. Even that may not be what it looks

North part of Sherman must be getting smoked

That warning here is a little puzzling to me. Velocities haven’t looked great (though wind would be right on the leading edge) but haven’t even seen any reports of wind damage associated with it moving into western MA

It may tend to weaken, unless instability shoots up a bit out ahead of it but it’s in an area of higher MLCAPE now

Kent/New Milford going to get the best goods

No Chase but will be outside hoping for some goods

Nice banana high. Sign me up for one of those this winter with low pressure developing in the deep South

Throw in the state of the PDO into the mix too. I haven't followed too closely the progression of the PDO since spring/summer but it seems to me like the -PDO has re-established itself to some degree...can't really strong Nino's with this degree of PDO regime.