weatherwiz

As stated the idea of they're supposed to "learn" is totally overblown. Traditional models already have some AI built into them and already do this to an extent. From what I understand (and this may not apply equally to AI models) is AI assists with the initializing scheme whereas it combs through ingested data and will "remove" what it believes to be bad data or an outlier based on a slew of historical information. The goal here is, or the idea is, this will lead to a more accurate initialization which is important because once you move forward in time you start to introduce error and that error becomes compounded over time...that is why forecast models (OP) are generally useless beyond D7-10 and can even be relatively useless past D5 if there is alot going on. Error also occurs because of rounding and approximations, especially approximations. AI models are built on a wealth of historical data where it runs and looks for similarities, both to the initialized field and then forecasts based on how these similarities evolved in the past. The challenges in all of this is, there is still a lot we don't understand about weather, particularly when it comes down to processes which occur during storm evolution and it becomes even more of a challenge because for forecast models to ingest this data we have to be able to parameterize it. There is much more to this then just verifying a specific level or variable and even that leads to a lot of questions. Probably in a tame weather pattern that is not hostile, AI will outperform but what good is that or what value is that really adding?

This should be pinned at the top of the board As I've also mentioned before, AI can probably be very useful in the nowcasting department or short-term (6-12 hours) but beyond that...a very long ways to go

Yup...like I mentioned the other night it will be active upcoming. May not see stuff pop up on the SLP charts but its an active look with plenty of shortwaves

I don't believe all of the AI models have physics built in. I would think the NCEP AI models do, but that is how some of them are able to process more quickly and roll out much faster, the model doesn't have to perform calculations.

Agree, this is a big player I believe. I don't know a whole heck of a lot about the basic blueprints of forecast models (the math/physics, different schemes...I'm hoping that may actually be covered in my advanced forecasting class) but I do know this Data assimilation and being able to properly and accurately parameterize are detrimental to the success and accuracy of a forecast model. This is what made the euro superior for all those years, the euro had superior assimilation and parameterization. This is exactly why I am not sold on AI yet. We need to drastically improve these capabilities and this is where (hopefully) quantum computing is going to come a long ways.

I could see AI being heavily influenced in thinking because you have a nrn stream moving in and srn stream coming up the coast that there will be clean phasing. Like Runnaway said, maybe there is also resolution at play here..or something to this degree? I mean the vorticity field almost seems "too smoothed"...too clean.

Very well could be too expansive.

It will eventually hit one after 1000 tries and then everyone is going to get sucked into it because it finally got a hit and ignore the other 999 misses

The AIGFS doesn't seem too drastically different from the 12z OP run yesterday in terms of the H5 evolution, both srn stream and nrn stream.

nahhh that would be more if we had model consensus for a big hit now, only to see the rug get pulled out from under us as we got closer

Neither did Bears fans entering the 4th quarter. Let's Chicago Bears this thing

He probably prefers to keep his sanity

I enjoy his tweets. He definitely does not hype and is pretty straightforward. I really enjoy his posts during convective events

Yeah I don't think there is any convective feedback issue going on here...hardly any, if any, convection with this anyways in the Southeast

Agreed...I think it's going to be until Friday or Saturday before we have a true gasp on the 500mb evolution.