weatherwiz

Yup…textbook events are very hard to come by. Many weather events, including big events (whether severe or winter) generally aren’t textbook.

shame there was never any updates to NARR after 2014

I was hoping to pull off 100” but probably going to have to scale that back to 80” given slow January start.

meant in reference to forecast models not sensible weather haha

I was kind of hoping we could have gotten a solid 2-3 year stretch of ENSO neutral conditions but this developing La Nina and now signals for an emerging EL Nino are going to run that. But this constant seesaw of ENSO with multiple strong EL Nino events over the last decade is really causing some major atmospheric chaos

As much as I am a believer in CC and its influences on weather and while there may be some influences, I agree that CC is not the ultimate driver behind our crummy luck. Eventually we will get into periods (and a several year stretch) where things work out and we get slammed. This will happen sooner versus later.

I'm ready for climo to deliver. I finally got all shoveled out from all the good looks and each of the climo periods from the last several winters

Maybe Marco Sturm can transition practices outside and teach the Bruins how to play defense and punish them by making them stand outside in Arctic air at a clip of 30 minutes for each penalty they commit during a game

@40/70 Benchmark getting back to the end of last weeks discussion regarding that fast flow stuff...I retract what I had stated and I will also add that anything blaming fast flow is also voodoo...to a degree

I just kind of want the weekend to get here. This period is very low probability, but just enough of a probability to keep us a bit into it. We'll either put this to rest this weekend or see a theme where we are inching towards something.

How Low can you go

Was just going to mention that...how the pattern is structured is about as important than anything and I think stuff like this goes overlooked. People see ridge in the west and trough in the east and assume that is good but that is not necessarily the case.

gravy in the sense that the signal for anything significant from that is diminishing so if it happens to work out its a bonus.

Yup its been wild how drastically we've seen guidance alter within the medium-to-long range...clearly there is still a struggle with fully grasping the PAC. I also wonder if there is some residual feedback from the monster -PDO we had late summer...obviously not going to impact the models but moreso how the PAC is evolving in real time

I was hopeful for that first wave but I've become a bit less enthused, however, I am hoping that it may somewhat help set the stage for better potential with the second shortwave...there's a quite a bit of energy that will be in play there