weatherwiz

I like the good ole fashion wood

I could picture the NAM ending up with one of those runs that produces 1.50-1.75"+ of QPF. I really need to get to Lowes and get those yard sticks. Might have time to go Saturday, hopefully they'll have some in stock

Nothing to whine about so people unsure of what to do

This is why I can't wait until we get into meso model range. The mesos I think should handle this very well and this is when we can really talk about the potential for >15" totals and where those would be most likely to occur.

Nothing good comes out of doing that. You can raise awareness and prepare the public without having to go off the walls

If we're going to be looking at something along the line of 15-20-24" somewhere that idea won't become more serious until we're inside of 24-36 hours and can start diagnosing banding more accurately and getting a solidified feel on snowfall ratios, lift, etc. This is why that map of 1-2' was absolutely stupid this far out.

That would be a huge hit on the GFS, especially with the 850 low developing just south of the region. I like how the sfc low and 850 low go virtually west-to-east to our south with a bit of elongation to the low...that should help (I would think) result in a much wider than usual fronto band (combined with other factors of course) than usual. This inflow oof

For old times sake can we have the storm mode in bright red at the top of the page? maybe a radio show too

I miss oceanstatewx insights with the NBM and its latest developments. Its not a bad source though I think it still has a quite a bit of room for improvement. I'm actually not entirely sure how it does with snowfall forecasts but I believe it can be a solid source because of its ability to bias correct

Ask the chipmunk it squashed

Only mixing between Sunday and Monday will be Bacardi with coke

It is feasible the immediate shore does experience some mixing. This is where its much better to look at forecast soundings then fixed levels (such as 850 or 700). You can get very sneaky, subtle warm layers. There are also other processes to consider as well, for example, if there is a tremendous amount of latent heat release ongoing that can negatively impact snow growth production and result in poor enough snowgrowth that precip is almost sleet like. I believe something like that happened in 2013?

Just wait until we get the ice storm warnings cranking

Given the airmass, the trend could actually be a significant benefit to us, at least on the mesoscale level when it comes time to pinning down banding and what the potential amounts may be

Oh wow look outside and a nice, steady snow falling