weatherwiz

All the snow weenies care about are 10:1 and Kuchera

Signs were there for this I think. PVA streaming from the north and still pretty cold at 500

At least right now, nothing screams the developing EL Nino is a modoki, if anything it looks like we would be looking at a mixed or basin wide event given the strong anomalies in the (hostile) 1.2 region and Nino 4 region. Now, what would happen towards the end of the EL Nino event is a transition to a modoki EL Nino, which isn't uncommon for a weakening stronger EL Nino as region 1.2 tends to be the first to cool. In terms of impacts on the continental U.S. summer, Tip and I had some dialogue on this a few weeks back but I don't think there is much of a correlation and there are drivers. EL Nino's tend to not become fully established until late summer or even early Fall. An argument can be made that while the PAC is in the transitioning mode and this may have a quick and direct impact on the Hadley Cell but there atmospheric response can be quite often lagged to how the ocean is evolving and there are other factors to consider. Also, if we're just focusing on the impacts on summer to stronger EL Nino events, the sample size really isn't that great and at this point a strong event isn't even guaranteed. While the data may indicate that, we still need to get there first. IMO, I think some of the late winter/early spring responses within the Arctic and stratosphere held so much weight on the northern hemisphere pattern that we're still dealing with those impacts.

Weekend is going to be all about the warm front. I would not be surprised if guidance is a bit too hung up with the warm front and at least southern areas end up in the warm sector. But not a good sign when you see the sfc low weaken as it crosses the Great Lakes region. That's a good way to stall the warm front or transition it to a stationary front and we never truly warm sector and end up cool with clouds/showers. Uncertainty high for sure weekend and early next week...potential is there to get quite warm but need things to work out

Did anyone hear the boom? I did not

This is true

Just came back from Dunkin. Debated on pulling out the winter hat before I left.

Quite breezy out there. Going to be an interesting over the next 3-5 hours out east when the LLJ maximizes with 2-6km lapse rates as steep as they are

llvl lapse rates may be steep enough to support gusts 35-40 mph inland. Also, the lack of rain farther inland and even potential for some cloud breaks may allow better than expected mixing (evident by the steep llvl lapse rates)

At least on Monday we should get some cold pool small hailers

The second half of June has potential to be hot and humid and more consistent heat/humidity too

Time to drop by and share a few of these

Just pick me up, turn me upside down, stick my head in the toilet, and repeatedly flush...don't stop flushing

Impressive because the NBM tends to underdo wind gusts, though that may have been corrected some with v5

although maybe some cold pool storms early next week