weatherwiz

Here is the forecast from the GFS of what the split looks like. I did lie a bit, there is some displacement with one part of the split displacing more into Alaska. Can't post a gif (could make one but don't feel like it) but like you said, its rather brief.

I would have to hope people are looking more at just "charts" and what the tendency of the stratospheric AO is forecast to do. I mean its still pretty early in the season so the PV isn't particularly strong to begin with. Also, if you look at the structure and evolution of the structure (of course this is based off model forecasts) it does "weaken" and even looks to split but it does not become displaced really. Will this have some impact on the hemispheric pattern...sure, perhaps but enough of an impact or an influence that it needs headlines...don't think so

It's so ridiculous. People are always trying to find something to latch on to.

Was outside with the dog around 8:00 or so last night and was surprised how mild it still was.

I don't recall memories of this day (but I do remember 5/29/95 and 7/15/95) but being made aware of this some years later, pretty impressive storm which formed along a backdoor front.

Yesterday was phenomenal. With the two trees in the front yard having lost all their leaves (well one still has a little bit left but very little) I was able to clean out the gutters and get the grill all cleaned. Started off chilly working but warmed up quickly and was even able to take off the light long sleeve...could have easily switched from jeans to shorts too. Feels great getting a lot of (or mostly all of) the outside work done and doing so in very pleasant weather. Hope we can continue these types of weekends for a bit longer...can just sit outside and enjoy the day with little work left to do

I can dig 30s at night and then 50s and 60s during the day...preferably 60s but keep this going through November.

ehh I don't think that's how that really works. The overall scheme is much more complex than just "learning" from mistakes and misses. While its become apparent AI models are going to provide some tremendous value, at least in medium range forecasting, if we truly want to make a substantial leap with modeling we need two things 1) Superior computing (such as quantum computing) that is able to perform complex calculations at a much faster rate. Another key aspect about quantum computing is they will be able to handle and perform even calculations that are way more complex than what supercomputers can currently handle 2) The ability to initialize current state better (the Euro has been worlds ahead in this) and part of this goes into quantum computing and ability to handle and perform challenging complex equations. 3) Another challenge is putting knowledge, or our understanding on physical processes into mathematical terms to be computed. There is always going to be some sort of disconnect because we don't have a true 100% knowledge of every process which occurs during storm evolution (example: why some supercells with hooks produce tornadoes while others don't) so we can't 100% model that accurately. And models just can't learn that without us being able to feed it that information first.

I kind of have too...or at least don't put much stock into it.

What I've been finding interesting too is over the past few years (I'll even say several) it seems the big deviations don't even occur from incremental errors or differences that leads to the large differences...its like a switch flips at D3-4 and the divergence in guidance is through the roof. There will be subtle differences in key features through D3 and then all of a sudden D4...its like WTF just happened

I have a feeling this is going to be an absolutely horrific late spring/winter for forecasting. Just look at the differences between the Euro/GFS beginning at D3-4 lol...totally not even in the same ballpark with many of the upper-level features. Check out how the GFS/Euro handle that system digging into the PAC NW lol...its laughable

these climate model seasonal snow maps are a joke. what a waste of space and resources

That is just a product of the upper air pattern and what will ultimately steer it and probably due to the fact that the system is still quite unorganized

Interesting difference between the EPS mean and control moving into the first week of November. Control develops a stout +PNA/-AO combo but its not a typical pattern evolution of what you'd expect yielding that...also you would at least expect to get a much colder airmass from northern Canada or Arctic but that is not the case. Raging jet too...any systems moving onto the west coast (or into the southwest I should say) or going to fly across the country

yes