weatherwiz

Just caught the post after the reply. Thanks for the clarification, this actually makes much more sense. So ultimately, we *could* (if a storm signal remains) end up seeing guidance transition from the coastal look depiction to something more along the lines of an overrunning signal (or dare I say...cutter)? Would not be the first time we've seen this happen

hmmm I thought opposite when looking at the teleconnections. Rise in the NAO with a declining PNA All of this during a period which looked to be active with shortwaves progressing within the flow across the country. I know the OP shows a storm but not necessarily basing my thoughts on the OP...but seeing the OP with a storm kind of backs up the potential?

Our best chance upcoming is going to be that mid February time frame. I don't have much confidence moving into the second half of the month...there's been increasing signals with a flip on the PAC side and introducing more trough amplification into the West and we know what that mans for us. A bit of vitality showing up with respect to pattern evolution second half of the month...that look makes me nervous because it could be signaling the hemisphere is making strides towards the seasonal transition. Not saying winter is over or snow threats are done because slight tweaks in the evolution opens a window. So for now I don't have much in the way of expectations and proceeding with lower confidence moving forward.

Agreed. These things don't just come in quiet. I think there will be snow showers and squalls around all weekend, perhaps not widespread but there is definitely some moisture around. Orographically areas likely favored

could be potential for some decent OES across the Cape Sunday/Monday

The period around mid February is quite intriguing I think, at least in terms of the evolution of teleconnections which I know Tip has touched upon. But during that period the NAO is forecast to become less negative over time with the PNA becoming more neutral. Will be very active in the shortwave department. Obviously how everything evolves is a different story but that is a period to 100% watch

That road doesn't usually see any sun until like later March or April lol. Went out yesterday and was glad the roads that do get sun were in pretty great shape.

That explains it. TBH I've been trying to avoid looking at the temp/dewpoint because it just makes it worse. Not looking forward to this upcoming weekend. I might watch the SB from the inside of a fire place

Despite the temperatures and abundance of sun today I am impressed by the lack of snowmelt. The road here is still a complete disaster too

Hopefully it breaks down

It might only be early February and we may still have several weeks of winter to go, however, that doesn't change the fact winter is getting into its back half which means spring is approaching and pretty soon severe weather season. While its usually not until late May or early June when we start getting some real severe threats May 1 is a great proxy to use because we can sometimes sneak in some early season events and it gives time to switch the mind into convective forecast mode and start sniffing out guidance for potential threats. Just like professional athletes need a pre-season to prepare for the season and shake off the off-season rust, this threat offers the same thing...a good place to talk convection and shake off the rust. With this said, we'll open the countdown at 88 days Its coming and coming quickly

It will certainly change. I really wish we could get a good 2-3 year period of ENSO neutral conditions. I think that would go along way of stabilizing things for a bit

Well technically it doesn't only affect the northeast coast of the U.S. it has an effect everywhere but the effects (or the results) or just the by product. For us a byproduct is just shitty luck, for areas to our west and south the byproduct is increased potential.

Yeah I'll check this out more, Phys.org is pretty great. And thanks for the last paragraph, that is precisely what I was trying to illustrate but could not put into coherent wording. I think having a sound fundamental background in this understanding can go along way in medium range forecasting. If there is one thing I would really love to study further and understand it's wave spacing and factors which influence wave spacing...and then how forecast models handle wave spacing.