weatherwiz

I'm not really seeing a whole lot to be excited about in terms of winter storm threats or potential for the second half of the month. This doesn't apply to northern New England or elevations though...they will always find a way to sneak in some accumulating snow well into April. But when it comes to the GFS at least, I'd be very skeptical about it being way too aggressive with the EC troughing and colder look. Yes, that look or "tenor" has been a theme during the winter but we're moving into a new regime now with the hemisphere and wavelengths transitioning to the warmer season and this is when the GFS bias for extended range trough/cold may be overestimated. Yes other guidance hints at this but not to the degree of the GFS and something more along the lines of transient. Still plenty of cold to our north which keeps us in the game but nothing to me looks overly excited...especially since antecedent airmasses are going to suck.

3km with some violence ripping across PA tomorrow. May even see some elevated thunderstorms move across SNE tomorrow night...pretty decent MUCAPE on the 3km

I believe this does change the probabilities which designates the categories. For example, it looks like it will be more difficult now to get a high risk day which I think is a great idea because really if a high risk is issued...you want that to be held for days where widespread significant severe is going to happen. This may hopefully reduce more of the high risk "busts" we have seen. I am with you...I am definitely not bashing this either, just trying to understand it more. But with what you said I think makes sense and if that is the case and purpose I can understand it a bit better. I'm sure there is some literature on this, I've only read the little bit on the SPC site.

That's how I kind of see it. So in that tornado probability that intensity 2 area is supposed to indicate if a tornado occurs, the reasonable max intensity is EF3 and the intensity 1 area is max intensity EF2. I think though this is supposed to help local forecasters and emergency management to better communication to the public but I don't see how this helps.

I am still trying to gauge this new conditional intensity thing. But I am with you...seems odd the entire thing isn't filled in and what additional value does this have over the regular hatching? But I guess its to highlight what the "max intensity" may be. IDK...I feel like this is going to cause more uncertainty or even hype that isn't needed

First go around with an intensity 2 for tornadoes (also have it for hail in Texas). Very curious to see how this changes or enhances public communication or if it just adds confusion. I wonder what @OceanStWx thoughts on this conditional intensity addition is.

It's going to be super close WOR. Looking at some soundings from the NAM WOR you can see a more SE component to the wind but (Even though its March) if the NAM is overdoing the clouds/AM precip, it would not take much to mix out that shallow and subtle layer. Could be a day where DXR gets to like 66 and BOS 41

The NAM is also a bit more robust with clouds/precip Wednesday too

Gotta love this time of year BOS for tomorrow 6z MAV: 66 0z MET: 52 7z NBM: 62 We've reached the time of year where the NAM is as useless as ever with temperatures (unless there is a front overhead/nearby) or we have CAD.

Could see some showers with thunder develop around/after daybreak Wednesday morning on the nose of the advecting MUCAPE

Pretty crazy seeing a long-tracked tornado on the ground in Michigan with temperatures/dewpoints only into the 50's. That cell is a beast

Can't disagree with this

It's such a tease looking at that. We're so close to the warmth but the heights are totally compressed up here. This isn't a good look either in the Southeast, especially Florida where I think they are in a pretty bad drought and there are major fire concerns. But that is also setting up to what could be an extremely active March in the Great Plains there. But for here...certainly going to be several wintry mix threats.

I'm with you too...we could be setting the stage for some early April heat. For as cold and chilly we have been here...there has been some anomalous warmth off to our southwest and it's not something that has been brief spurts either. Unless something major happened to kind of move away from this across the south, the only thing which has presented us from tapping into this has been the configuration in the Arctic. Relax that and we open the gates.

Just going from memory here but one major difference between those extremely anomalous warm periods is there was tremendous support within the Arctic domain...meaning there was little or nothing to fight back again the building heights or compress them. Also, notice with those periods too is those patterns didn't really come with fronts readily advancing across the eastern third of the country...it's a much different story building heights naturally (such a a response to lowering heights upstream a.ka. west trough) versus forcing heights to build due to say a propagating front. When you get cold fronts traversing the OV and into the Northeast, more than likely there will be at least one wave developing along the front and that's what ultimately screws us in the warm sector department, particularly when the look across eastern Canada favors to squash said low.