calculus1

30.1/28 in my similarly located backyard. Same ice observations. Tiny icicles formed too. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Temperature really dropped once the rain began here. Down to 30.2/27. Can still drop a bit based on the dewpoint.

Temperature is rising here rather quickly now. Up to 28.9/23 now after being down to 27.4/20 only half an hour ago. Who knows what will happen in the morning…

It’s now 27.4/20 here in NW Hickory… WWA just issued by NWS GSP… Perhaps a light ice glaze in the morning… Would prefer to see sleet, though.

Currently 27.6/19 here in NW Hickory? Will there be a bit of a winter weather surprise in the AM? We shall see... Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Well, Adam Schefter used unnamed sources to report Tom Brady was retiring yesterday, and let's just say there's been a bit of pushback. Just sayin'. It's kinda difficult to argue with the math behind @cbmclean's calculations. And, the word average can indicate either the mean, the median, or the mode. Most people understand the word average to mean the mean, but the mean is the measure of central tendency that is most susceptible to having extreme values skew it's value, in this case, positively. If you remove the Carolina Crusher year from the above dataset, you will find the mean annual snowfall in RDU is only 4.4 inches, and that's still keeping in the two unusual values above 14 inches. Take those two out, and the mean is even closer to the median value of 2.5 inches. I would argue the median is a much better measurement of the typical annual snowfall in a location that has such extreme variability. While RDU can definitely have a year or two here and there with a double-digit snowfall total, it's much more the exception than the rule. Thus, I would make the argument that RDU is already above average (the median average) in snowfall for this winter. Anything else is gravy.

15 in Hickory. My in-laws reported 10 in Black Mountain. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Yep, @Hvward was right on with his map for Catawba County. Completely blanked. My in-laws in Black Mountain are reporting around 2 inches. We're heading up there this afternoon. Hard to believe that somewhere in Swannanoa got 8 inches, as that's only like 3 miles away from their house.

I measured a big fat goose egg in Hickory, NC. Not even a skiff of snow on the roof. I do have a lot of frozen rainwater on my freshly stained (oil-based) deck, though. So, there's that. It is fun to see all the SC places getting snow that so rarely get to experience it. I'm happy for them, most especially. Thanks for all the posted tweets, @WinstonSalemArlington.

Decent radar returns overhead in Hickory right now, but nothing surviving to the ground. I thought we would be saturated by now…

That’s what my mulch looks like, but it’s not really precipitating at all right now. Hope there is more to come.

Went out to eat with the family here in Hickory. Just got back home. Was surprised to find a dusting on the mulch. Seemed to be all rain in the headlights on the way home. Temperature is 34.5 right now. Just drizzle right now. Probably need heavier returns to get back to snow.

The lack of robust discussion in this thread is telling…

I think they are accounting for the lee-side minimum in these WWAs. The centers of Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, etc. appear to have the least likely chances to meet WWA criteria, so they decided not to issue them. I would feel better about my own chances if I were on the eastern side of Catawba County. I think the NW corner, where I am, has the least likely chance of getting accumulating snowfall in this setup.

Waking up to Winter Weather Advisories across the NC piedmont. Generally 1-2 inches. Modeled snowfall output has grown rather anemic, though, overall. I would love to get a whole inch of snow tonight. Anything greater than that would seem a nice bonus at this point.

That 2009 storm was absolute torture for those of us living in Caldwell County. That lee side minimum was horrific.

I hate your map, Hunter. That is all. Catawba County is hung out to dry…. To be clear, I have no issue with its likely veracity. I just don’t like what it portends for Hickory.

Ugh. Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee. 12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills. ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there. So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches. Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”.

I hate these charts even more after reading this article. This article does not explain how ensembles work. It explains how WRAL takes the number of ensemble members that show 1 inch of snow for your backyard out of the total 50 that run with each ECMWF iteration to manufacture a “probability” or “chance” of 1 inch of snow in your backyard. That’s not a “probability” of 1 inch of snow. It’s a “percentage” of ensemble members that show the desired outcome. Those 50 ensemble members aren’t the only possible 50 outcomes for how the storm system could evolve, and they aren’t equally likely outcomes. It’s not a probability. If all it takes to be a meteorologist is being able to calculate percentages of ensemble members that show a particular outcome and making a pretty chart to graph it, then sign me up. Rant over. I’ll shut up now and promise to stop commenting on these charts even though people keep posting them in here.

Finished with 0.2 here in NW Hickory. Solid dusting. Enjoy it down east.

Went bowling with the family tonight. Came out to snow falling. Was quite surprised at how much was on the road. Road is completely covered in my neighborhood, with about 1/4 inch of dry snow. Seems we’re at the back edge of the precipitation shield now. Should be ending soon, I guess.

Still nada in Hickory, despite radar showing otherwise.

Yeah, but nothing reaching the ground. Yet.

Nothing in NW Hickory, even though radar is lit up overhead. Dry air…