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calculus1

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    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Eric said:

    Interesting distribution of snowfall throughout the South so far this season.

    sfav2_CONUS_2017093012_to_2018010412.jpg

    You can really see the results of lake effect snow on this map up in the Great Lakes Region.  It's also pretty crazy that it's snowed all the way down to the Mexico border in basically all of Texas, and yet portions of Kansas and Missouri have yet to see any measurable snowfall.  That early December snowstorm path is very evident through the southeast, as is the recent New Year's storm:  two storms and two different swaths, essentially mutually exclusive of each other.

    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    I will delete my account if Charlotte gets an inch of snow before 2/1. It aint happening. Mark my words.
    Whoa! Hey, now, that's a little strong, man. Don't go that far, if you're wrong. That's like 25+ days in the future to predict. Lot can happen...

    Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

    Pack it's on your door step. RAH thinks you may be in one of the sweat spots with 2-3"

    I'm pretty confident that pack's been in a sweat spot for this entire event and for days leading up to it.  Now, if he could only find the sweet spot...  :P

    Seriously, this must be so painful that you can't help but try to find the humor in it.  I was very confident that pack, CR, and the gang would get a decent snow out of this.  It seems my confidence was misplaced, and you guys were right all along.  I really am sorry that you're missing out on this one, as of yet.  I still think it will eventually fill in and you'll each get an inch or more, but this waiting must seriously suck.  There's no other way around it.  :(

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    I don't understand why the Raleigh people are so distressed about this opportunity.  (That means you, Cold Rain and packbacker and...)  You guys are more depressed and downcast than anyone I've seen in a long time.  You have a legitimately good shot at accumulating snow, and you refuse to find solace or hope in anything.  You seem to enjoy the doldrums and revel in it.  It's become your badge of honor.  You will have three inches of snow on the ground Thursday morning and will still refuse to believe that it's there.  Come on, guys!  Snap out of it!  Go find some puppies, rainbows, and unicorns or something.  :bag:  :D

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, BillT said:

    hilarious seeing the mods elsewhere claiming to be big snow lovers posting silly one word posts which are 100% negative and declaring the winter is OVER....very happy they banned me and hope they enjoy being led around by spain park chris

    You sure seem very concerned with whatever is happening on the "other" board, even though you claim to be happy that you are no longer affiliated with it.  Just jump on board here and ignore whatever happened over there.

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    There is no need for people to take regional desires personally, in the storm thread. Of course, Raleigh- and Charlotte-area posters are looking for any hint that the storm may throw precipitation further back inland. This would probably mean that the beaches get rain, but it doesn't mean that Raleigh and Charlotte hate the people who live at the beach.

    Those who live at the beach have very little desire to see this trend NW much at all: they are content with where we stand. It doesn't mean that they relish seeing Charlotte and Raleigh miss out on snow and that they secretly thrive off dashing their dreams. Each area naturally wants snow more for their backyards than for any other location. It is what is. Accept it.

    If you want more people to post about impacts in your backyard, then look in the mirror and step to the plate. We have a few posters who are very good at addressing board-wide effects, but most people (again) naturally post about weather that affects their backyards. (Your other option is to find some knowledgeable locals and convince them to join this board and share their insights.)

    As for me, I'm hoping for a mega-phase with an LP consolidation in the northern GOM that progresses right up the SE coast. Hello, foot of snow IMBY! Of course, that is so incredibly unlikely with this current system that there's really no point in discussing that option in the storm thread. It doesn't mean I won't stop hoping, though. (It also doesn't mean I dislike all you posters east of me.) Hope springs eternal...

    Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

    • Like 3

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    So, we can like posts and give other positive reactions now too. When can we get a "thumbs down" option? There are some posts that are really cluttering up the storm thread lately. I don't like using the ignore feature, but I may have to bust it out again soon.

    Bah humbug.

    Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

    • Like 1
    • Haha 2

    The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Latest update from GSP:

    Quote 
    
As of 1000 PM EST Thursday: Have expanded the Advisory farther into
the NC mountains and NW NC Piedmont, and upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning for Habersham and Rabun. To the details...event unfolding in
TX is either at or above some of the predicted levels, and HRRR is
actually doing a pretty good job of nowcasting the event, so would
like to think that the rest of the HRRR forecast is in line.
Guidance continues to bump up QPF. Atmosphere is slowly saturating
so evaporational cooling will of course have a limit, but concern
with incoming CAA will be the dynamic cooling and diabatic effects,
specifically the cooling of the surface layer from the latent heat
of melting, which will serve to continue to lower the snow layers
without a source of low-level WAA (and there really isn`t one). KFFC
00z sounding had a bit of a warm nose just above 800mb but that
should erode by the time precip gets this far north. 00z NAM bufr
soundings show a deep near-freezing isothermal layer with gradually
dropping snow levels here at GSP through the night (using the
thickness nomogram is a bit misleading with the near-freezing layer
so deep). So even with the increased QPF, think snow ratios might
not be quite as high and so have not increased snow amounts quite as
much as the QPF would suggest. In any case, since WSW criteria for
GA is 2", Rabun should easily get it, and northern Habersham as
well. Most of the SC mountains should easily get 2", but WSW
criteria for SC is 3" (4" for NC), so for now have kept SC and NC to
advisories. Would not be surprised to see the rest of the NC
mountains added to the advisory or expanded east more into the
Piedmont (right now Burke/Cleveland/Rutherford Counties are really
only included because of the Southern Mountains). Graham and Swain
actually do not currently have advisory-criteria snow amounts, but
for consistency`s sake, made sense to go ahead and include them.

     

    • Like 1

    The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 minute ago, nam0806 said:

    Its not that hard to post a link and be nice about it. I don’t understand why you have to be so rude about it. Just post a link or picture and move on.

    That said, I’ll stay quiet again. 

    Apologies.  It just seems that it should be obvious when all these maps come from TT or PW that you would just need to Google those names, and there would be the maps.  It just seems like people ask for links to the same things over and over.  But, you're right.  I was a little short about it.

    You don't have to be quiet, though.  Now that you can find these maps for yourself, feel free to post the ones that interest you in the thread.

    • Like 1

    The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

    Sref plumes are out. Triad locations took a big jump and almost doubled from the two inch range previously to the four inch range now. 

    Same for Hickory:

    SREF.thumb.PNG.59c9a8fc8481f7c7bfa72733ab3e4883.PNG

    1 minute ago, CummingGaSnow said:

    Could the map be posted? I'm very anxious to see what it looks like!

    Look for yourself right here:  Just zoom in to your location on the map below:  (I feel like I've already said this once today...)

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

    • Like 1

    The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Here's the latest forecast update too.  My favorite part is the bolded... 

    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 500 PM EST Thursday: New guidance trickling in continues to
trend cooler and wetter, and while the NAM remains a cold/wet
outlier, other 18z data shifting that direction lends confidence to
a slight uptick in snowfall amounts. Will continue to be a battle
between the cold air vs. moisture as is typically the case, but with
the moisture expected to now make it farther into the mountains, the
prudent course of action was to go ahead and hoist a Winter Weather
Advisory for the upslope areas of the SW mountains, including the
GA/SC mountains. Because NC`s advisory criterion is 2" in 12h and we
have that over the South Mountains in Cleveland/Burke/Rutherford
Counties, included those areas, but most locations <1500ft will be
hard pressed to see anything more than a trace/dusting at this time
(uh, with the current forecast that is - if the trends continue that
may be pushed up as well). Concern is that in the prime overlap area
of the SC mountains (QPF and temps), current forecast is getting
close to warning criteria. Will continue to watch trends through the
evening and especially with the overnight forecast.

Otherwise, guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the
precip potential for tonight and Friday. Deep moisture moves in this
evening with decent upper divergence from the right entrance region
of the upper jet. Short waves move over as the upper trough deepens
to the west. Low level isentropic lift develops as well, but remains
relatively weak with abundant moisture. Despite an overall cooling
trend in forecast temps and surface wet bulb values, they remain
above freezing through the night outside of the mountains, but do
fall below freezing across the mountains. Of course, precip chances
are lower where temps are colder since those locations are farther
away from the better forcing. Therefore, have snow developing in the
colder locations with mainly rain elsewhere. Forecast soundings show
the freezing level dropping low enough for snow to mix in north of I-
85 with a change over possible across the Northern Foothills. QPF is
light but could be enough for around half an inch of snow along and
near the NC/GA to NC/SC border mountain locations. Snow would be
less across the rest of the mountains.

Categorical precip chances continue generally along and south of I-
85 Friday with likely chances north of there across the foothills to
along the Blue Ridge. Good chance PoP west of there. Temps and
surface wet bulbs remain cold enough for the precip to fall as snow
across the mountains with a transition zone across the NC Foothills.
Outside of these areas, freezing levels may fall low enough for snow
to mix or possibly even briefly change over early in the morning
mainly along and north of the I-85 corridor. QPF has increased on
some of the guidance runs which increases the potential for advisory
level snow across the NE GA and Upstate mountains, along with the
Southern Mountains and possibly portions of the NC foothills. After
final national guidance is in, we may need to update to post an
advisory for those locations. While these accums would develop in
grassy and elevated areas, it is still questionable how much
accumulates on roads given the recent warmth and sunshine. Locations
where the precipitation will be mixed or only a brief change over,
no significant accums are expected with any small amounts limited to
grassy or elevated areas.
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