calculus1

You've got to come back west, QC. Weren't you in Davidson last year?

The 12Z FV3 has been really slow to load. Here's the Kuchera output through 144. Umm... Anyway, much more conservative in the Carolinas than these other models we have seen.

Here's the Kuchera from Pivotal Weather:

Snowing from hour 114 to 162 in Hickory, NC. 48 hours of snowfall. Just. Wow.

Here you go: https://www.weather.gov/rah/events

Just. Stop. It. Griteater! [emoji16] Six days away... Six days away... Six days away... Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

You are way too overconfident on this. The NWS mets aren't even sure I will see snow in Hickory, NC, and you are guaranteeing sleet and flurries south of Columbia, SC?!?! You are going to be severely disappointed, I do believe. Also, how can you say what is and isn't going to happen six days before we get there? The weather is so fickle. We try our best to model it with math, but are so often wrong. Of course the low could barrel into the banana high, because the banana high might not even be there on Friday/Saturday, as is currently modeled. Who knows what will actually transpire between now and then? The gist of this is to suggest you avoid speaking in such absolutes. There are much greater forces at work than you and I could possibly understand, and they all affect the sensible weather. While humanity has advanced our understanding, we have light years still to go. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

I have to disagree. I'll take my 60s and 70s in any which way I can get them, rain or shine. I actually kind of like the gloomy, overcast, drizzly days from time to time. Additionally, I would quite willingly forgo fall (though I would miss it), if I could dive right in to a cold and snowy winter in October.

NWS GSP is upping the totals again for the NW piedmont:

But the 18Z 3K NAM only goes through 06Z Monday. More rainfall should fall after that point.

The afternoon update has reduced those storm-total precipitation forecasts in the NW piedmont of NC:

Latest storm total rainfall forecast from NWS GSP for their forecast area. So, far, I have 0.00 inch.

Brad P Update for his viewing area, in particular:

The 8:00 AM update does appear to have switched the NHC track to a more westerly than southerly track after landfall.

The intensity forecast has really diminished significantly. No sign of the "M" designation near the coast anymore. Current wind speed has dropped once again too. Down to 110 mph.

Well, landfall might be a touch north, but the overall track of the storm after landfall continues to head further and further south.

No, the path keeps heading south overall:

5PM Update (Edited):

11 AM cone and specs:

That is crazy! For perspective, that wave is approximately as tall as this building. Imagine standing at the base of this building and seeing a wave that tall approach you.

11PM update from NHC:

The 06Z HWRF has Florence coming ashore near Wilmington at 09Z on Friday morning. The center of circulation is then virtually stationary for almost 24 hours, just slowly drifting westward. 24 hours after that (09Z on Sunday), the center of circulation is just SW of Charlotte as it continues to meander to the west, all the while dropping copious amounts of rainfall across North and South Carolina. Wowza!

New advisory cone:

Brad Panavich's evening update on Florence:

Touche!