calculus1

Yes, this summer has been miserably hot and humid. I was fortunate to escape to Alaska for two weeks, but otherwise it has been “Yuck!”

Same for me. It’s been raining all around me, but just a random sprinkle or two hear IMBY.

Been in Alaska for the past two weeks, camping and hiking. Mornings were in upper 40s and afternoons never got warmer than mid 70s. Most afternoons were in the 60s, particularly where we were hiking at elevation. Made it home last night and checked my PWS. Only 0.11 inch of rainfall IMBY over that period. Ugh! Yesterday’s high was 100.4 IMBY with a heat index of 120! I don’t think I’ve ever seen it that high on my Vantage Vue. I may challenge it today, though. Current temp is 92.5 at 1 PM. Heat index is reading 105. .

No, no hail over here IMBY. Just very heavy rain. Maybe more tonight. .

Great light show last night from the back deck here in Hickory, NC! Just absolutely amazing! We even saw them dancing overhead at times; that’s what the second shot above was trying to capture. Clouds are a bit persistent tonight, unfortunately. .

Surprisingly, not a drop yesterday. First we bust badly by an incredible over-performance on Saturday, then we bust badly by an incredible under-performance on Sunday. The weatherman’s job is difficult… .

Up to a total of 3.53 inches of rainfall since Friday afternoon. Got another inch overnight. .

Way over performed on the rainfall today. Forecast was for 0.5-0.75. Already at 2.25 and coming down hard again. Interesting what the overnight will hold. Supposed to be another 0.5-0.75, but I am guessing it will be more. Lots of heavy rain on the doorstep… .

Big bust on the rainfall forecast today. NWS said less than a tenth of an inch today as recent as 8 AM. I have 0.4 inch and counting. That’s 400% more than what was forecast. We never seem to bust in that direction with snowfall, unfortunately. .

Wow! Heavy sleet just started here IMBY. Large sleet pellets. It's official wintry precipitation IMBY. Wow.

@jburns , great to hear from you! I remember those grill pictures from the great Archdale snow. I doubt we have another of those in our near future, but we can dream! .

Visiting family in Black Mountain. Just had a nice graupel shower come through. It looks like it’s coming down hard up in the Craggies on the BRP, which we can see from the valley here. .

Look at the IMBY stats in my signature. The last five winters (counting this one) have been miserable in Hickory, NC. The previous six were really good. The two before that were horrible. (I can’t go back further because I didn’t live in the same spot prior to that point.) Seems rather cyclical to me for my admittedly few years worth of data. I’m not sure why a five-year period of below normal snowfall means that our local expectations should drastically change. Five years in the span of eons is less than a blip. Thus, I’m not willing to pronounce permanent change based on that minor amount of evidence. This stretch sucks, but I bet we string together another good run of winters in the near future. We might have to wait a couple more years, though. Who knows? Maybe we only have to wait another week or so, if the ECMWF is right…

I hardly ever hear the word verbatim used in normal everyday conversation. But we weather geeks sure do like to throw it around with impunity. Let me offer a few alternatives for those wanting to change it up from time to time: ”If the model output were to come to fruition…” ”If the model output were to become reality…” ”Taken literally…” ”If the model output were to be unembellished…” ”If reality were undeviating from the model prediction…” Or if you really want to win friends and influence people, you can go with: ”Taken punctiliously…” Carry on and let it snow.

I’m on the other end of the spectrum from you, @BooneWX. Give me 50s, 60s, and 70s as long as possible. I don’t want any 80s, 90s, or 100s even if it’s the middle of July. If it takes rain showers to keep the temp down, I’m in. Of course, our preferences really have nothing to do with it, though, as they have no bearing on the actual weather….

I’m hanging on until March 15. The legacy of 1993 is imprinted on my memory. It was a unicorn storm, but something similar will happen again one day - probably after I am dead and buried. .

So, I was wrong. I assumed the low was around 16 (and I just ballparked it), because that was the temp when I checked close to 8 AM. Based on your comments above, I went back to verify and found the actual low was 11.8 F at 6:44 AM. So, almost single digits, but not quite. As far as my distance from Lake Hickory, I am somewhere between 1 and 1.5 miles away, as the crow flies, from the nearest point to me on the southern shore of the lake. I wonder if concrete and asphalt have a greater effect on my temperature than does the lake itself.

Much colder out in the rural locales, it seems. I only made it down to 16 F.

Been in Morehead City for the past couple of days. Got home this evening. High temp at the house was only 27.8 F today. Already down to 17.3 F. Gonna be a cold one…

TM?

I asked that recently too, @BIG FROSTY. Didn’t get a response, so I’m guessing he’s not on here anymore.

730 days since an inch or more of snowfall IMBY: 5.5 inches on January 16, 2022. I had no idea at that time how long I would have to wait to see any additional significant snowfall IMBY. Still waiting... It's pretty sad when there are virtually no prior winter weather events to speak of for the past several years on the NWS Raleigh Past Events page:

Same here, but I had to go outside to hear it. Nothing to see here… .

You have nice slug of moisture heading your way, according to radar. Still nada here in Hickory.

I have yet to see a flake IMBY, but my wife said she saw a few out and about driving around.