calculus1

The 12Z FV3 has been really slow to load.  Here's the Kuchera output through 144.  Umm...

Anyway, much more conservative in the Carolinas than these other models we have seen.

Here's the Kuchera from Pivotal Weather:

Snowing from hour 114 to 162 in Hickory, NC.  48 hours of snowfall.  Just.  Wow.

11 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

Good morning everyone. I hope all is well and everyone is having fun tracking our first real threat of the early winter season. Does anyone know of a good website to look up past snowfalls for North Carolina? I want to go back through a lot of the past storms we have had, as well as look at past winters to see how things shook out for the Charlotte, NC and surrounding area(s). Thank you in advance for any input/links, etc. 

Best regards, 

Jason 

Here you go:

https://www.weather.gov/rah/events

I see 1.75 to 2.50 all snow around Hickory to Lenoir out to 183...clown maps will be monsters

Just. Stop. It. Griteater!

Six days away...
Six days away...
Six days away...

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Banana high is a term used when a high (or pair of highs) bends around an area of low pressure and blocks it. It happened with Hurricane Florence and set it on a path to the Carolinas instead of OTS. 
The GFS has a track record (pun intended) for showing that BS about pile driving into HPs, it isn't going to happen, so the low will track further south as has been shown with both the GEFS (the GFS ensembles) and the EPS (Euro ensembles). That major suppression is why even my area is going to get at least SL/FL (Sleet or Flurries), I hope this helps.

You are way too overconfident on this. The NWS mets aren't even sure I will see snow in Hickory, NC, and you are guaranteeing sleet and flurries south of Columbia, SC?!?! You are going to be severely disappointed, I do believe.

Also, how can you say what is and isn't going to happen six days before we get there? The weather is so fickle. We try our best to model it with math, but are so often wrong. Of course the low could barrel into the banana high, because the banana high might not even be there on Friday/Saturday, as is currently modeled. Who knows what will actually transpire between now and then?

The gist of this is to suggest you avoid speaking in such absolutes. There are much greater forces at work than you and I could possibly understand, and they all affect the sensible weather. While humanity has advanced our understanding, we have light years still to go.

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NWS GSP is upping the totals again for the NW piedmont:

3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

The 18z NAM continues to cut these rainfall totals in NW NC,3''-5'' across there on this run with a big cutoff just SE of CLT where 9'' plus are.Might be a bit light but we'll see.

Carry on.

But the 18Z 3K NAM only goes through 06Z Monday.  More rainfall should fall after that point.

The afternoon update has reduced those storm-total precipitation forecasts in the NW piedmont of NC:

Latest storm total rainfall forecast from NWS GSP for their forecast area.  So, far, I have 0.00 inch. 

Brad P Update for his viewing area, in particular:

 

The 8:00 AM update does appear to have switched the NHC track to a more westerly than southerly track after landfall.

The intensity forecast has really diminished significantly.  No sign of the "M" designation near the coast anymore.  Current wind speed has dropped once again too.  Down to 110 mph.

Well, landfall might be a touch north, but the overall track of the storm after landfall continues to head further and further south.

No, the path keeps heading south overall:

5PM Update (Edited):

11 AM cone and specs:

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence."

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657

 

That is crazy!  For perspective, that wave is approximately as tall as this building.  Imagine standing at the base of this building and seeing a wave that tall approach you.

11PM update from NHC:

The 06Z HWRF has Florence coming ashore near Wilmington at 09Z on Friday morning.  The center of circulation is then virtually stationary for almost 24 hours, just slowly drifting westward.  24 hours after that (09Z on Sunday), the center of circulation is just SW of Charlotte as it continues to meander to the west, all the while dropping copious amounts of rainfall across North and South Carolina.  Wowza!

New advisory cone:

Brad Panavich's evening update on Florence:

 

1 minute ago, jburns said:

Well, it beats a rectal insertion factor but not by much.

Touche! 

2 hours ago, gtg947h said:

A portable generator will run stuff off of extension cords, unless you've made the appropriate changes to tie it into your house wiring (see below). 

...

I couldn't tell you how much gas you'd need.  You'll need to look up the fuel consumption for your specific generator, and to be conservative assume full power output.  Rectal-extraction figure says a little north of 100 gallons.

I'm pretty sure I don't want any piece of equipment that involves a rectal extraction.  I'll just endure being without power, if that's the alternative. 

Lol. I said it. I should clarify. I am ready for spring if it is going to skip over my city and snow everywhere but here. If that be the case, come on spring.  But, your point is still valid.  

You aren't the only one, Joaquin, but I appreciate you owning it.

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