calculus1

I'm seeing a lot of 850mb wind images being posted.  While some of those winds get mixed down to the surface, those are not the speeds we should be expecting at the 10m-level.  I'm also seeing several images with no legends or titles.  It's hard to tell what we're looking at in those cases.  Please be specific, guys.

The NAM and GFS models seem to be tracking Michael on the very western edge of the NHC forecast cone with the heaviest axes of precipitation over the western portions of NC.  New NAM is rolling now.  (Yes, I know the NAM is not the preferred hurricane model.)  It's just an interesting observation.

9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

All it takes is .1 to make or break an event... Just saying 

There are so many things that can make or break an event.  2-m temperature is just one of them.  However, monthly average temperature does not necessarily have any effect on whether or not someone gets snow.  While highly unlikely, we could finish 0.5 degrees cooler than normal for the entire month by simply being 0.5 degree above normal on 27 days in February and 27.5 degrees below normal on the one other day.  I think we'd all just give up at that point, though! 

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Holy ****....

As awesome as all that blue looks, it only corresponds to -0.6 to -0.8 colder than average in North and South Carolina.  (I believe those are degrees Celsius rather than Fahrenheit...but still.)

3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Who cares about temps being in the 60's and 70's when it is only because of heavy fog and rainy conditions.  This has to be overall the most crappy year of weather I can remember.  And at this point, if I dont get my extended fall, I sure as heck dont want to dive straight into a cold and snowy winter.  

Groundhog day forecast for much of this week and weekend.  Bring on October.

I have to disagree.  I'll take my 60s and 70s in any which way I can get them, rain or shine.  I actually kind of like the gloomy, overcast, drizzly days from time to time.  Additionally, I would quite willingly forgo fall (though I would miss it), if I could dive right in to a cold and snowy winter in October.

NWS GSP is upping the totals again for the NW piedmont:

3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

The 18z NAM continues to cut these rainfall totals in NW NC,3''-5'' across there on this run with a big cutoff just SE of CLT where 9'' plus are.Might be a bit light but we'll see.

Carry on.

But the 18Z 3K NAM only goes through 06Z Monday.  More rainfall should fall after that point.

The afternoon update has reduced those storm-total precipitation forecasts in the NW piedmont of NC:

Latest storm total rainfall forecast from NWS GSP for their forecast area.  So, far, I have 0.00 inch. 

Brad P Update for his viewing area, in particular:

The 8:00 AM update does appear to have switched the NHC track to a more westerly than southerly track after landfall.

The intensity forecast has really diminished significantly.  No sign of the "M" designation near the coast anymore.  Current wind speed has dropped once again too.  Down to 110 mph.

Well, landfall might be a touch north, but the overall track of the storm after landfall continues to head further and further south.

No, the path keeps heading south overall:

5PM Update (Edited):

11 AM cone and specs:

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence."

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657

 

That is crazy!  For perspective, that wave is approximately as tall as this building.  Imagine standing at the base of this building and seeing a wave that tall approach you.

11PM update from NHC:

The 06Z HWRF has Florence coming ashore near Wilmington at 09Z on Friday morning.  The center of circulation is then virtually stationary for almost 24 hours, just slowly drifting westward.  24 hours after that (09Z on Sunday), the center of circulation is just SW of Charlotte as it continues to meander to the west, all the while dropping copious amounts of rainfall across North and South Carolina.  Wowza!

New advisory cone:

Brad Panavich's evening update on Florence:

1 minute ago, jburns said:

Well, it beats a rectal insertion factor but not by much.

Touche! 

2 hours ago, gtg947h said:

A portable generator will run stuff off of extension cords, unless you've made the appropriate changes to tie it into your house wiring (see below). 

...

I couldn't tell you how much gas you'd need.  You'll need to look up the fuel consumption for your specific generator, and to be conservative assume full power output.  Rectal-extraction figure says a little north of 100 gallons.

I'm pretty sure I don't want any piece of equipment that involves a rectal extraction.  I'll just endure being without power, if that's the alternative. 

Humid today in Shenandoah National Park. Hiked Old Rag Mountain with the family. I think that's the most technically challenging hike I've ever done. There's this crazy rock scramble to get to the top, climbing over boulders, through crevasses, and hoping you don't slip in a few places. My kids did it too, with quite a bit of help. 10 miles, 2500-ft elevation gain, and the technical challenge made for an all-day affair on the trail. Glad to be back in the condo relaxing.

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

12 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Nino-ing through the Arctic:

The snow is being dispersed unequivocally.

Cloud seeding and sublimation being captured rapidly....

Too deep to make it back in time.

I see what you did there.  Well played.