calculus1

The lack of robust discussion in this thread is telling…

I think they are accounting for the lee-side minimum in these WWAs. The centers of Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, etc. appear to have the least likely chances to meet WWA criteria, so they decided not to issue them. I would feel better about my own chances if I were on the eastern side of Catawba County. I think the NW corner, where I am, has the least likely chance of getting accumulating snowfall in this setup.

Waking up to Winter Weather Advisories across the NC piedmont. Generally 1-2 inches. Modeled snowfall output has grown rather anemic, though, overall. I would love to get a whole inch of snow tonight. Anything greater than that would seem a nice bonus at this point.

That 2009 storm was absolute torture for those of us living in Caldwell County. That lee side minimum was horrific.

I hate your map, Hunter. That is all. Catawba County is hung out to dry…. To be clear, I have no issue with its likely veracity. I just don’t like what it portends for Hickory.

Ugh. Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee. 12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills. ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there. So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches. Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”.

I hate these charts even more after reading this article. This article does not explain how ensembles work. It explains how WRAL takes the number of ensemble members that show 1 inch of snow for your backyard out of the total 50 that run with each ECMWF iteration to manufacture a “probability” or “chance” of 1 inch of snow in your backyard. That’s not a “probability” of 1 inch of snow. It’s a “percentage” of ensemble members that show the desired outcome. Those 50 ensemble members aren’t the only possible 50 outcomes for how the storm system could evolve, and they aren’t equally likely outcomes. It’s not a probability. If all it takes to be a meteorologist is being able to calculate percentages of ensemble members that show a particular outcome and making a pretty chart to graph it, then sign me up. Rant over. I’ll shut up now and promise to stop commenting on these charts even though people keep posting them in here.

Finished with 0.2 here in NW Hickory. Solid dusting. Enjoy it down east.

Went bowling with the family tonight. Came out to snow falling. Was quite surprised at how much was on the road. Road is completely covered in my neighborhood, with about 1/4 inch of dry snow. Seems we’re at the back edge of the precipitation shield now. Should be ending soon, I guess.

Still nada in Hickory, despite radar showing otherwise.

Yeah, but nothing reaching the ground. Yet.

Nothing in NW Hickory, even though radar is lit up overhead. Dry air…

The Canadian is glorious too. A snowstorm for most of the Carolinas.

Down to 36.7/35 IMBY. Loving the GFS trends. Hope they are reflected elsewhere.

Here is the 18Z RGEM:

Surface temperature is falling slowly IMBY. Down to 38.7/37...

850s continuing to move south and east...

Current 850mb temperatures:

https://twitter.com/SethMonteith150/status/1483902598734397442?s=20

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1483813679661563907?s=20

I am not a meteorologist, but I’ve got a pretty good background in mathematics. Having taught the calculus sequence for many years, I can tell you that most students do not find the concepts of calculus that difficult. However, the algebra required to manipulate expressions so that the calculus can be applied is where they get tripped up. My suggestion: really brush up on your algebra skills. Practice, practice, practice with your ability to factor complex polynomial, rational, and transcendental expressions. If you can do that well, you won’t have much difficulty with taking derivatives and integrals. Best wishes with wherever you decide to pursue your degree in meteorology. Don’t be afraid to talk to your professors and seek their help outside of class. Most will actually appreciate that you are interested in learning and are willing to apply yourself.

Here they go again with their meaningless precision probabilities… 32%….

Yeah, really like where the NAM is going at the end of the run. But, I can’t decide if that’s a good or bad thing, because it’s the 84-hour NAM. Virtually no wintry precipitation for anyone with the stalled out front unless you are on the immediate coastline. But, it gets cranking near the end and possibilities abound…