calculus1

Westward movement at only 1 MPH at 8:00 AM. Those poor people on Grand Bahama. Winds still at Cat 5 strength, but down a bit from the max. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

A little closer to the coast at 9/1/2019 5:00 PM NHC Advisory:

9/1/2019 2:00 PM Intermediate Advisory for posterity's sake. 185 MPH!

This storm is incredible. Just. Wow. The statistics are hard to believe. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

The official NHC track for Dorian didn't change too much at the 2:00 PM Advisory:

Much bigger re-curve illustrated on the cone map at the 8/31/19 11:00 AM Advisory.

And, that's apparently what we can't do: Assume the models are right. In just a few short days, we've transitioned from... A relatively weak storm that would track across Hispaniola, get shredded, and then weakly wobble over southern Florida, to A stronger storm that could potentially take the Andrew track across southern Florida and reemerge in the GOM before turning northward, to An incredibly strong storm that will track across the northern Bahamas before turning sharply north, scraping along the Florida coastline, and eventually coming ashore in North Carolina. Who knows where we will actually end up and what the written history of this storm will recount? Clearly, no one. Or, no one computer model. So, no matter how "advanced" or "evolved" we think we might be as humans, we still cannot accurately predict things that will happen a few days out. This is a reminder that we have far less control over things than we deceive ourselves into thinking we do.

8/31/2019, 8:00 AM Advisory on Dorian:

^Just. Wow.

63.9 over 63. Amazing! Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

All the windows open! Love me some CAD!

Same here in Hickory. Amazing lightning show all around. Very vivid CTG lightning strikes between 4:30 - 5:00 PM.

An endless amount of concrete/asphalt with a dash of jet exhaust will do quite a number on a city's official temperature reporting station. It's hot on the tarmac! Who'd have thought that?!

Here's hoping the GFS is wrong, as it often is... On the other end of the spectrum, I got to visit the Wind River Range in Wyoming the week before last. The first morning I was there, my Kestrel read 37 F as the low temperature in the morning. Every other morning was in the low 40s. It's amazing what elevation and latitude can do when working together. Loved it! It would be hard to beat western Wyoming for summer weather. The high prairie is above 6000 feet everywhere, there are hardly any people around, and the mountains are spectacular. I got to backpack through several snow fields too. Christmas in July!

There you go. More words helped out a lot. Please continue to post but help us understand what you are saying by adding much more detail...as you just did. I had airplane head anyway when I wrote my first comment. Operating on 3 hours of sleep right now. Red-eye flights suck. So, maybe it was clearer to others and just not to me. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Something complex has become more abstract? I never understand your posts, calm_days. It's as if you are trying to be obtuse and revel in your successful attempts. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Get 'em, hailstorm! Crazy heat island effect. Who puts a temperature gauge in jet exhaust?! Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Heavy thunderstorms this afternoon here in Hickory. I picked up 1.98 inches of rainfall in about an hour. Dime-size hail too.

Latest update on Barry:

Even if we get no more rainfall, June 2019 will prove to be the wettest month on record for my backyard in the eight years that I have lived at this residence. Additionally, I am on pace for the wettest year ever at this locale.

Not quite that intense. I think that would be hard to beat. =) We were up on a hilltop overlooking Kentucky Lake (Paris Landing State Park). The trees swayed back and forth as if they were fans. Left, right, swirling. It was very eerie and surreal. No rain fell as this was happening. Then it calmed down briefly before the rain hit us. Hard. The gust front, derecho, or whatever we want to call it was one of the most impressive and sustained that I have ever witnessed. We then left out this morning before the next MCS passed through. Raced it home all day until it caught up to us at about the NC/TN state line on I-40. Torrential rainfall on that curvy, walled interstate section is no fun at all. Looks like the third MCS will hit overnight.

I was in Paris, TN, northwest of Nashville, when it came through the state park there around 6:30 PM. Crazy amounts of wind ahead of the rain and small hail. I was in awe watching the trees sway back and forth with such ferocity.

Observed precipitation values over the past seven days. Just crazy amounts of rainfall in the Hickory area and just to the NW:

Thanks, Burns. I have most of my (now) cement slab basement dried out, and we didn't lose many possessions. We are rather fortunate compared to many in this area. Lots of families displaced due to flooding. So many roads and bridges closed or impassable in the area. Catawba County schools are closed tomorrow with many schools harboring standing water.

This is one time when I wish you had been wrong, grit.