calculus1
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Everything posted by calculus1
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3.5-inch mean snowfall on the 15Z SREF for KHKY. Continues to tick up a bit.
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Good point. May have not given it enough time to develop. Only out to 27 on Pivotal when I posted my earlier content. Hour 30 shows snow back further south now.
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18Z NAM moving north with the snowfall...again.
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SREF Mean jumped to 3 inches for KHKY with the 09Z run. Still lots of spread though.
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It's still very visible on both the 12K and the 3K NAM models, though. Especially from Caldwell County to the north and east. Being in the extreme NW corner of Catawba County, that makes me a bit nervous. Nah. Calculus is much more straightforward. Weather prediction with high degrees of accuracy and pinpoint precision is still an unattainable goal in 2020.
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SREF plumes for KHKY. A two-inch mean isn't too shabby for this uneventful winter, so far.
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06Z models not as juicy as 00Z models for KHKY:
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Current NWS GSP forecast for snow totals. Conservative.
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Webber with the snow shadow forecast in the lee of the Apps. A wide shadow, too. Ugh! I'm hoping I'm just far enough east to avoid most of the downsloping. The more the precipitation feed is oriented SW to NE, the better, IMO. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
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Yes. That storm sucked. S. U. C. K. E. D. No other way around it. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
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Thanks for nothing, eyewall. [emoji20] Fully buying the downsloping, you are. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
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Apps lee-side screw-zone in full effect! I would think if the precipitation truly blossoms that it would fill back in further NW, but maybe that's just wishful thinking...
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An "exciting" trace! What we all hope to see. You have to love the dark humor of some mets who write these AFDs.
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Thanks for that, eyewall. Ugh. The mountains give (in CAD events), and the mountains take away (in storms from the NW and (sometimes) W directions). Such is life in this incredibly interesting micro-climate. =) Overall, I'm still pretty psyched by this storm, though. This has the most potential all year long.
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Once the precipitation turns over to snow, it appears that it never goes back, at least in NC zones of this 12Z run of the NAM.
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Yeah, that's not too far south of me. Continued shifts like this put me more and more in the mix. From what I can tell, the warm nose is not predominantly banked up against the mountains in a SW to NE manner but is more oriented W to E. And, it has been moving steadily northward on subsequent runs of the NAM. That's not good for lots of us, given the general NW trend that we are accustomed to.
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Fortunately, it turns to solid snow for two-thirds of NC by hour 57 on the 12K NAM.
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This is the sounding for KHKY at hour 54 on the 12Z NAM. That 750mb level is too close for comfort to the 32 F line...
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Looks like the rates of precipitation quickly cool the atmosphere in NC. Went from rain at hour 48 in KHKY to snow by 51, but it's REALLY close to a mix.
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The lee-side snow minimum is ominously hinted at in each of these snow maps that are posted. Regardless of the overall amounts in NC, the lowest totals are consistently forecasted in a strip including Surry, Wilkes, Caldwell, and Burke Counties. That's too close for comfort to me.
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Yep, this is just crazy. Fortunately, the new interior drainage system I had installed since the flooding of last July 2019 has worked very well. It's gotten a really good test these first few weeks of the new year. My record rainfall was 76 inches during the 2018 calendar year. This year may give my record a run for its money, as I am on pace for 126 inches of rainfall. (126 is not gonna happen, but still.)
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Over an inch and a half of rain yesterday. I'm now up to 15.55 inches on the year, at the halfway mark in February. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
calculus1 replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Closer view of mountain counties. Just amazing the differences in only 50 miles from Asheville to Lake Toxaway: Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk -
2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
calculus1 replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Don't be such a downer, man. It's just beautiful to watch fall. Any day there are flakes in the air is a win. I have one inch for the season, but I am enjoying the beautiful snowfall outside (even though I want even get a dusting before it's over). Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk -
Oh, and congrats to all the SC and GA peeps! Glad you're getting a decent event out of this. I'm a little jealous, and hope we get a good one before the season is over. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
