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calculus1

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  1. calculus1
    At the in-laws in Black Mountain. Flurries started on Old Fort Mountain on I-40. Light flurry action here at their house too. Turned on the game and saw Chris Justus break in with those same maps @strongwxnc posted above. We are right on the western border of his 12+ stripe. He is much more bullish than is the NWS. Fingers crossed. Let’s get this show started!
  2. calculus1
    In laws reporting flakes in Black Mountain! Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
  3. calculus1
    Packing up the car and getting ready to drive the family up to Black Mountain. Here. We. Go!
  4. calculus1
    Radar looking like it’s incoming to Rutherford County. Heads-up @strongwxnc.
  5. calculus1
    That snow map is “Total Snow” and would incorporate everything getting ready to fall in the western half of the state. Thus, it’s really big for the east, and the west is on the fringe. For now.
  6. calculus1
    Just waiting on that NW trend…
  7. calculus1
    Here’s the Panovich mid-morning blog. Really focuses on the Charlotte metro area. Moral of the story: ICE. Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) Tweeted: 11am Winter Storm VLOG 1/15/2022: The focus should be on ice and not snow. https://t.co/Bi23qKAXR6 via @YouTube #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc
  8. calculus1
    Here's GSP's latest expected snowfall map. Numbers going down for NW piedmont but remaining quite strong in mountain areas:
  9. calculus1
    Loving this point-and-click forecast for my in-laws outside Black Mountain (9-15 through Sunday...): That sure beats the one for MBY in North Hickory which has steadily decreased the potential for snow (3-5 through Sunday...):
  10. calculus1
    I like Panovich's in-house futurecast for western areas. Looks like snow for the mountains the entire time and a very long duration event:
  11. calculus1
    Yes! We have a "bollocks"! Now, this storm has officially been christened. Welcome back, @Bevo.
  12. calculus1
    I am very weary of NAM thermal profiles. They have tired me out completely today worrying about their significance. Thus, I'm also wary of what they are showing.
  13. calculus1
    Yeah, that was pretty horrific overall, even for mountain valleys. Only the high elevations looked good from the 3K NAM. The onset of precipitation was much later than with the other models, too. Ugh.
  14. calculus1
    I love my Davis Vantage Vue. Had one for probably 12 years now. Does great on temperature and rain measurements. Easy to setup and transmits to an in-house receiver with all kinds of cool graphs, measurements, etc. You can also use their software program to keep records and do whatever else you might wish to do with it.
  15. calculus1
    I would rather he bring the cold, if it’s all the same to the rest of you.
  16. calculus1
    The NWS didn't change much with their Expected snowfall graphic from 9:30 this morning:
  17. calculus1
    Oops. I was looking at 06Z 3K NAM. My bad. I erased my prior posts. Thanks for the new post, @wncsnow.
  18. calculus1
    The 3K NAM is anemic for Buncombe County... https://imgur.com/RmF3rsn
  19. calculus1
    I still like both Hickory's and Black Mountain's potentials, with BM looking very strong for 8+ inches. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
  20. calculus1
    Yeah, Panovich is more bearish than is the NWS. Also, his geography is wonky: Granite Falls is between Lenoir and Hickory on US 321. He shouldn’t have them in 6-12, if the other two are in the 4-6.
  21. calculus1
    NWS GSP probabilistic forecast hasn’t budged on predicted high totals with their latest update at 9:30:
  22. calculus1
    By the way, we’re heading to Black Mountain. For many reasons: Happy wife, happy life. =) Cousins with whom the kids can play in the snow. (Who am I kidding? I will also be playing in the snow.) Pretty much guaranteed snow for the duration of the event. 8-inch floor, according to the graphic posted above. Monumental snowstorm experience. Let’s do this! Can’t wait!
  23. calculus1
    That’s a foot-plus for all the mountain areas minus the French Broad River Valley and 8-plus inches for all the surrounding foothills. Just amazing totals for these areas.
  24. calculus1
    This is just an amazing graphic to me from NWS GSP. In Hickory, NC, still 48 hours out from the event, they forecast a greater than 90% chance of 5+ inches of snowfall from this upcoming event. I don’t think I’ve ever had a floor that high, since they began producing these probabilistic graphics.
  25. calculus1
    GSP AFD for those trying to figure out their thoughts: I love their candor in this. The part about the 850mb low explains why their numbers are so high NW of I-85. The cat is out of the bag...
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