calculus1

If you guys think I am arguing against using ensembles in forecasting, I am not. I am arguing against displaying a map that gives precision probabilities. If WRAL derives their “probabilities” from ensembles, I still disagree with their language. If they said “14 out of 50 ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton” or even “28% of ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton”, I would have no issue with those statements. Those are indisputable facts based off model output. But equating such fractions of ensemble members to probabilities is a misuse of statistics, in my opinion. The probability of a success (getting three inches of snow or more, in this case) is equal to the number of successes divided by the number of possible outcomes (failures + successes). The ensemble members do not represent all the possible outcomes; they only represent approximately 50 of the infinite number of possible outcomes. Thus, we can’t really say there is a 28% probability of something happening based off ensemble members. In fact, I would argue there’s really no way to calculate such a probability, because it’s impossible to account for all the possible outcomes that arise from tweaking just one minuscule atmospheric condition somewhere over the entire globe. It’s the language that I take issue with, not the use of ensembles. If they were to change their title to “Percent of Ensemble Members that Predict 3 Inches of Snow”, I would see that as much more transparent. As it is, I think it’s a misleading graphic.

This is such a crazy graphic. I understand perhaps giving general ranges of 10, 20, 30, etc. percent chances of snowfall of X amount (and even those are questionable). But, how could anyone offer that degree of precision even 12 hours out, much less 4-5 days? For instance, Clinton has a 21% chance of seeing 3 inches of snow? Not 20% and definitely not 22%, but exactly 21%? So, if the atmospheric conditions were exactly the same as they are right now, and we play them out 100 times, then exactly 21 of those times Clinton would receive 3 inches of snow? No way could we possibly know that or perform that experiment. And there’s definitely not empirical evidence that we can fall back on to know this probability to this degree of precision. This is such a horrible use of statistics and probability…

Thanks for posting these meteograms, Buckeye. I just can't fathom all the pretty colors on these charts for Hickory -- there are so many pinks and purples, on both the ECMWF and the GFS ensembles. We aren't supposed to get nice things. I love the bonus bump in snow on the GFS too. As if 12 inches with the first one isn't enough, let's tack on an additional 8 inches a week later. Yessir! My favorite part of the GSP AFD is the bolded here. We are cautioned to manage our expectations. Yeah, we're not too good at doing that on weather boards.

I'm just waiting for someone to say "That's lights out" whenever anyone posts a ZR map. Surprised it hasn't happened yet in the main thread. Why do we need someone to say that?

Looking for that VIP seating?

Go Dawgs. That is all. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Yep, the leeside minimum rears its ugly head once again. Ugh. Can we not get a traditional gulf storm system?

Those are some beautiful shots of the ASU campus, @AirNelson39. I love how the brick of the buildings just pops against the white of the snow. The blues in the sky are really nice too. Great work!

Yep, that's the tough part. It's amazing how much they got in the W-S area this morning. The lee of the Apps is a tough place to live if you like snow. Really need those classic Miller A storms, but those are few and far between now, it seems.

Finally changed over to a good rain/snow mix here in Hickory. More snow than rain at this moment, but it fluctuates, and it is very wet. Regardless, it's pretty to watch the flakes fall.

Yes, upload the photos to an image-hosting site like IMGUR. Then, you can link to them.

I took my boys to two games this year. We managed to find a way to lose both. Eagles and Falcons. It was a lot of fun, but we sure would like to see some wins. Maybe next year... Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

What other type of rain is there besides aerial? Ground rain? [emoji16] Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

I'm very late to the party here, but congratulations Met1985! Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

BTW, that heavy line just put down 2 inches at my house in about a half hour. According to my Vantage Vue, my max rain rate over that period was 13.09 in/hr! I'm at about 6.5 in for the month now with measurable rainfall on six straight days. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

These reports out of SW NC are just insane. We've had off and on rain all day, and the heavy line just went through, but these totals and pictures are epic. So much loss of property but hopefully not lives. Thanks for all the updates and documentation of the event, mountain folk. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Lots of localized rain here today. 2.34 inches in my backyard in about an hour's time. Just downpours! Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

It's amazing the variety of responses to these vaccines. Pretty unpredictable. I had double Pfizer a while ago, and no symptoms with either. My arm has been sorer with the flu vaccine. My wife got J&J, and no side effects either. My good friend got J&J same day as my wife and developed Guillain-Barre. Three months in and still not back to work for him. It's a struggle to walk and grasp anything, with constant pain in his extremities. I hate it for him and his family. Despite his difficulties, he is still very much pro-vaccine and encourages others to not use him as an excuse to avoid it. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

It's been relatively dry here lately too (see my signature). We did get over two inches of rain over Memorial Day weekend, but it's been dry otherwise.

1.51 inches of much needed rainfall today. It feels amazing outside right now. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

And after adjective freezes, we better watch out for adverbial droughts and prepositional storms later this month. [emoji16] Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Yesterday's NWS forecast for MBY here in Hickory, NC, was for less than a tenth of an inch of rain today and less than a tenth for tonight. How's that working out? Nasso good. I am pushing two inches for today and a whole bunch more moisture still downstream... Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Great pics and stories, @NGTim. Thanks for sharing with us. So cool that you got to hang out with TWC crew! I have family just outside of Boulder in Lafayette. They said it was the most snow they have seen in their 5 or so years of living out there. Such an amazing storm, and I am glad you got to experience it.

That picture is a classic on this board. One of the best...

Definitely a glaze now, but no danger of any significant ice accumulations. Temp has risen to 32.0. This thing is over here. Another WSW that proves to be a nothing-burger. The best winter weather we have had was the unwarned 2.5-inch surprise snowstorm we had in the middle of the night back in January. Go figure. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk