calculus1

I like Panovich's in-house futurecast for western areas. Looks like snow for the mountains the entire time and a very long duration event:

Yes! We have a "bollocks"! Now, this storm has officially been christened. Welcome back, @Bevo.

I am very weary of NAM thermal profiles. They have tired me out completely today worrying about their significance. Thus, I'm also wary of what they are showing.

Yeah, that was pretty horrific overall, even for mountain valleys. Only the high elevations looked good from the 3K NAM. The onset of precipitation was much later than with the other models, too. Ugh.

I love my Davis Vantage Vue. Had one for probably 12 years now. Does great on temperature and rain measurements. Easy to setup and transmits to an in-house receiver with all kinds of cool graphs, measurements, etc. You can also use their software program to keep records and do whatever else you might wish to do with it.

I would rather he bring the cold, if it’s all the same to the rest of you.

The NWS didn't change much with their Expected snowfall graphic from 9:30 this morning:

Oops. I was looking at 06Z 3K NAM. My bad. I erased my prior posts. Thanks for the new post, @wncsnow.

The 3K NAM is anemic for Buncombe County... https://imgur.com/RmF3rsn

I still like both Hickory's and Black Mountain's potentials, with BM looking very strong for 8+ inches. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Yeah, Panovich is more bearish than is the NWS. Also, his geography is wonky: Granite Falls is between Lenoir and Hickory on US 321. He shouldn’t have them in 6-12, if the other two are in the 4-6.

NWS GSP probabilistic forecast hasn’t budged on predicted high totals with their latest update at 9:30:

By the way, we’re heading to Black Mountain. For many reasons: Happy wife, happy life. =) Cousins with whom the kids can play in the snow. (Who am I kidding? I will also be playing in the snow.) Pretty much guaranteed snow for the duration of the event. 8-inch floor, according to the graphic posted above. Monumental snowstorm experience. Let’s do this! Can’t wait!

That’s a foot-plus for all the mountain areas minus the French Broad River Valley and 8-plus inches for all the surrounding foothills. Just amazing totals for these areas.

This is just an amazing graphic to me from NWS GSP. In Hickory, NC, still 48 hours out from the event, they forecast a greater than 90% chance of 5+ inches of snowfall from this upcoming event. I don’t think I’ve ever had a floor that high, since they began producing these probabilistic graphics.

GSP AFD for those trying to figure out their thoughts: I love their candor in this. The part about the 850mb low explains why their numbers are so high NW of I-85. The cat is out of the bag...

Yep, that's what I was mentioning earlier. Fortunately for me, it seems Black Mountain is too far east to feel the severe effects of it. If you ever get a chance to see it, the Visitor Center at Gorges State Park has a great exhibit demonstrating the differences in precipitation for the SW mountain counties. Buncombe County is almost a desert by comparison to Jackson, Transylvania, and Henderson. The Visitor Center's 3-D image of the area shows the high peaks all around Buncombe with Asheville nestled down in the bottom. They also have video demonstrations of how the storms travel up and over the mountains, skipping the Asheville bowl. It's quite informative, if you are into weather, and I assume we are, if we are on this site.

March 93 is the winner for me too, but that was in Lenoir, Caldwell County -- 18+ inches. December 18 has been the biggest for me in Hickory, Catawba County -- 14 inches.

I'll have to rely on local cocorahs reports to get an estimate for my own home, though. There will probably still be a lot left around on Monday afternoon, though, assuming we can make it home then.

That's most helpful with the local topography, @BlueRidgeFolklore. Thanks for explaining that. I think I'm pretty near set on heading up the mountain.

But the Black Mountains (including Mt. Mitchell), just to the NE of the town of Black Mountain, get clobbered in this scenario (more than two feet). So, being just to their SW could be beneficial too.

Hmm... That map paints Hickory in a better spot than Asheville... Making my decision tougher...

My wife wants to let her mother know as soon as possible. Probably by tomorrow afternoon we should have it finalized. NW Hickory, approximately one mile from Alexander County line. Between Black Mountain and Swannanoa, near Owen HS.

I would love your guys' perspective on this. Here's my dilemma: There's nothing like seeing it snow/sleet/whatever in your own backyard, and Hickory has a good chance to get walloped. My in-laws have welcomed us to come spend the weekend with them in Black Mountain (due east of Asheville on I-40, just up Old Fort Mountain). I think Black Mountain has a much better chance of remaining snow for the entire event (2400 feet elevation), with little chance of mixing in sleet (at least at this point in the forecast). However, Buncombe County traditionally is the driest county in the state and often has precip minima there compared to surrounding areas. Ignoring other factors such as my kids playing with cousins in the snow in Black Mountain, which experience would you prefer? Staying at home and seeing 6+ inches of snow, with an inch or snow of sleet, followed by a deform band with more snow IMBY, OR Traveling to in-laws and seeing a pure snowstorm with likely 12+ inches of snow on the ground, but they might get downsloped a bit by surrounding mountains. As you can probably guess, my wife doesn't even understand why it's a dilemma, and she's like, "Let's go to my parents and have fun with the family there". But there's something so special about seeing it snow, during the day, all day, below freezing, in your own backyard. And, I'm a sucker for taking records and measurements IMBY, as you can see from my signature line. What are your thoughts?

And there we have it, folks! Our first declaration of the phrase “Lights out”.