Floydbuster

Recon about to make a pass.

This is true. I think Frances 2004 would not cause the same kind of damage if it occurred today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtB-lXAmxYg

The question becomes if Beryl increases in size and becomes less susceptible to the shear. Nevertheless, a large 115 mph hurricane could be worse than a tiny 145 mph one.

Video on Beryl https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uQrABvISuM

I recall Hurricane Ian had the most terrifying eyewall replacement cycle, maintaining Category 3 intensity and then rapidly strengthening into a Category 5 near the Dry Tortugas. I also think back to Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and Hurricane Frances in 2004, both had constant eyewall replacement cycles.

Besides the heavy rain threat, this would set Invest 97L to become Debby.

Major Hurricane Beryl

The Cleveland mets again seem surprised by the lack of severe weather in Northeast Ohio. They keep looking at these future radars and the muggy weather and then we get a few showers rolling through but nothing like what they seem to imply ahead of time.

Beryl looks on her way to major hurricane status fast. Good thing we will have two aircraft flying into the storm later today.

Good morning Beryl.

I thought about Hurricane Danny in 2015, but remember...Danny was in August during a very strong El Nino period and had colder than average sea surface temperatures and very high wind shear, likely even higher than what Beryl *might* encounter down the road. Beryl is in abnormally favorable conditions during what is expected to be an extremely active and favorable hurricane season, where CSU is forecasting that we will exhaust the name list. To me, that makes Beryl a much greater threat to the Caribbean than Danny ever was.

By the way, how does everyone say BERYL? I always pronounce this name as BURL, like Milton Berle. This was confirmed by Forecaster Stacy Stewart when the name was used in 2006.

HWRF shows a Category 3 strike on St. Vincent next Tuesday.

2005 feels like yesterday. Now I DO feel old.

Don't forget Dennis, which formed on July 4th in the Lesser Antilles out of a well-organized MDR disturbance and reached Category 4 intensity on July 8th. It remains the earliest Major on record in the Caribbean, even if just barely eclipsing Emily's formation on July 10th, though Emily holds the record for earliest Category 5. I still do not understand why Emily wasn't retired by the WMO. Yeah, we were there together tracking Emily. Hurricane Emily was a much more memorable storm than it gets credit for. The evacuations were tremendous and no doubt saved many lives in Mexico.

Forget about Elsa 2021...these ensembles are much stronger than Elsa ever was.

I need to stop fretting over the damn future radar so much. Look at today's result.... FUTURE RADAR ACTUAL RADAR

I am a bit concerned at the strong intensities of the ensemble models as the system banks westward whether towards the SE U.S. or the Gulf of Mexico.