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Floydbuster

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Everything posted by Floydbuster

  1. Floydbuster
    I hope 95L becomes Fiona, even briefly. I don't like the name and I want to move on to Gaston.
  2. Floydbuster
    There almost seems to have been a shut off to the tropical wave train off Africa during July. You know how they come off far north, or hit a wall or shear, or fizzle into big ugly gyres? I didn't expect that pattern and I'm surprised it occurred. If they were moving faster and further south, they'd have a chance. Like the wave off Africa now, it seems to be stuck. What the hell is that about? Why isn't it progressing west at 15 mph?
  3. Floydbuster
    I'm surprised the models are not more enthusiastic with the wave that just left Africa.
  4. Floydbuster
    I'm expecting Western Caribbean activity in October. These youngsters are too spoiled. Some years have October storms like Keith or Lili. These spoiled hurricane trackers are used to Greek crap like Hurricane Zylor by September 25th.
  5. Floydbuster
    If we get Earl, then Fiona, Gaston and Hermine all off Africa...one of them is gonna break through west eventually.
  6. Floydbuster
    I'm still most interested in the wave leaving Africa right now.
  7. Floydbuster
    I would watch the wave leaving Africa in a day or two. The long-range GEFS like it as a west runner.
  8. Floydbuster
    Earl is now expected to be atleast a Cat 3, so we'll probably be outpacing 2013 with a major cane atleast.
  9. Floydbuster
    You guys are being way too harsh. I honestly think we've been spoiled by more August activity than I was used to tracking when I was a kid/teen. This time in 2001, we had crap. But we still ended up having Cat 4 Iris and Cat 4 Michelle. This time in 2002, we were still weeks away from Hurricane Isidore and Hurricane Lili. I really think September 15-October 15th will be crucial. If that time is dead, then we can put a fork in it.
  10. Floydbuster
    Here's a video on the tropics, as well as the active Pacific. https://youtu.be/5Yxx_FvKkOg
  11. Floydbuster
    I still think Earl could become a hurricane after five days as it moves further north.
  12. Floydbuster
    Meh. Technically September 10th is the peak. I tracked Hurricane Georges '98 which didn't form until September 15th. Hurricane Keith 2000 was a Cat 4 off Belize while we had two Cape Verde Hurricanes (Isaac and Joyce) on October 1st. Hurricane Iris 2001 was the first week of October.
  13. Floydbuster
    Looks tightly coiled. Gonna reach 90-100 mph for sure.
  14. Floydbuster
    What is so amusing is that we were literally 3/0/0 on the morning of September 1st, and within the next week between this and 91L, we could technically be sitting at 5/2/2 in just seven days. I think both Danielle and 91L have a slight chance to reach Category 3 strength as they churn out to sea.
  15. Floydbuster
    I think 91L needs closer watching.
  16. Floydbuster
    This thing looks fantastic tonight compared to the last two days.
  17. Floydbuster
    1988 also had Hurricane Joan, a Cat 4 into Nicaragua in October, 2001 had Hurricane Iris strike Belize as a devastating Cat 4 in October, and 2002 gave us Cat 4 Lili which struck Louisiana as a minimal hurricane in October. I always think of those seasons as "two storm seasons". Gilbert/Joan, Iris/Michelle, Isidore/Lili. That tells me we will likely have October or even November hurricanes this year.
  18. Floydbuster
    I say go ahead and wait until tomorrow. We'll probably have both Danielle and Earl by weekend/early next week, but might as well make August 0/0/0.
  19. Floydbuster
  20. Floydbuster
    Getting out to sea vibes, but I've also seen invest models like this wind up in Veracruz.
  21. Floydbuster
    I see no reason why we've been so inactive. We have a La Nina, we have strong waves leaving Africa. The only possible thing I think could be the Saharan Air but that is a factor every season. Even 2005 had a huge amount of dust in the Summer during that hurricane season. I do recall seasons like 1998, 1999 and 2000, which have been seen as analogs to some this year, where the season really took off in September.
  22. Floydbuster
    Well, I will fall on my sword. I said we'd have a major hurricane by August 28th. We will not. That being said, I am kinda surprised why the GFS isn't more enthusiastic about Invest 91L.
  23. Floydbuster
    The OOZ Euro shows the system on the doorstep of Southeast Florida in 240 hrs. The 00Z CMC shows the system just off the Bahamas, moving little in weak steering currents. This model also shows the system not gaining much longitude for about 4-5 days just east of the Lesser Antilles, however.
  24. Floydbuster
    I would want to believe the Euro before GFS, wouldn't I?
  25. Floydbuster
    Also, up until 2002, we all thought that Andrew had been 145 mph at landfall. So anytime we had a 145 mph hurricane, we'd all say it was "as strong as Andrew".
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