Floydbuster

Wow I'm stunned that the NHC is forecasting a drop from a Category 4 all the way to a Category 1 before landfall. Even Frances maintained Category 2.

Am I the only one who doesn't think it's that disorganized? It's not expected to be a hurricane for 36-48 hours. With those waters, low shear and that impressive satellite presentation (even if the circulation is still getting better organized) it can become a hurricane in the blink of an eye. I think it looks great compared to the tiny blob it was 12 hrs ago.

Do you know the lowest record pressure in Nova Scotia?

I also show in the video the "return period" for a major hurricane in the Ft. Myers/Charlotte Harbor area is 18 years. It's been 18 years since Charley.

Quite a nasty hurricane for Western Florida on this run.

Western Florida has been very lucky with storm surge. Hurricane Charley 2004 was a 150 mph Cat 4 and the small size limited the storm surge. Hurricane Irma would've had a tremendous surge but hitting Cuba, then the Keys as well as the odd angle it approached the coastline gave many areas a reverse surge.

I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.

Hurricane Isidore in 2002 had similar scenarios. We didn't know whether the trough was gonna pick up Isidore and pull it to the Florida panhandle, or if Isidore would miss the trough and end up milling around in the Gulf of Mexico for days becoming a monster until another trough picked it up and pulled it into Louisiana.Eventually, the second scenario occurred, but the high pressure that built in during the time Isidore had weak steering currents wound up bumping the hurricane into the Yucatan Peninsula, weakening it from a 934 mb monster to a large pin-wheel tropical storm. The storm never rebuilt it's inner core and by the time it made landfall in Southeast Louisiana, it was just shy of becoming a hurricane.

Here's hoping 98L doesn't become Hurricane "Ian". I can't stand these "I" names. Last year's "Ida" could've easily been Hurricane "Julian" which was much cooler sounding than "Ida". If 98L is destined to be a memorable storm, I'm hoping for "Hermine" or "Julia" or "Karl". Not another freaking "I" storm. Please.

It definitely has a spin. Notice the northerly shear from Hurricane Fiona's outflow has let up ever-so-slightly the further north Fiona moves.

Hurricane Fiona is now a Category 4 storm.

927 mb at peak in Eastern Gulf. Some keep mentioning the fact that it weakens before landfall from an intense Cat 4/5 peak. That's true....but just imagine the storm surge potential it could build up. Good grief.

Another terrifying GFS run.

Hard to believe this was a naked swirl a few days ago.

This is in nearly the same spot as the wave that spawned Hurricane Gustav back in 2008.

Agree.

It appears that once Fiona pushes out, this system would have a nice outflow jet on the eastern side when it's south of Cuba and starts strengthening like mad.

Fiona is now the first major hurricane of the season.

As Fiona strengthens and heads towards Bermuda, we must keep an eye on the wave in the Central Atlantic.