Floydbuster

I still think we don't see much consolidation until Wednesday.

Video Update on Nicole

Looks like the NHC is thinking this becomes another hurricane. Assuming Lisa doesn't have time to reach Category 3, that would put us at 13/7/2.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df-e275mWqs

Looks like two November hurricanes. I've been preaching all year about these La Nina seasons being active so much later. I've just been surprised we haven't seen a major hurricane in October.

I'm still not taking my eye off the Caribbean until the end of November. La Nina years require extra vigilance watching.

If the system in the Atlantic steals the name "Lisa", then this Caribbean hurricane would become "Martin", which was the replacement name for late-season Caribbean "Matthew", which was the replacement name for late-season Caribbean "Mitch".

Three runs in a row of the GFS model showing a monster hurricane near Puerto Rico first week of November, similar to Lenny 1999.

Looks like we have a new Lemon in the Atlantic. Could become "Lisa" and move westward for the next few days. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern and Central Subtropical Atlantic: A small non-tropical area of low pressure is located more than 1400 miles east of Bermuda. While this system is currently only producing limited shower activity and environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, recent satellite wind data indicates it has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. This low is forecast to move quickly westward at 20-25 mph across the subtropical Atlantic towards warmer waters, and could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by early next week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Papin

Impressive on a global Atlantic/Pacific view

Some huge cold cloudtop bursts. Should cause heavy rains, hopefully the fast motion keeps the mudslides limited. Here's a video update for the night owls. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtASJZK8Ih4

Beautiful anti-cyclone right over the top of Julia.

I know, right? Looking at satellite I'd say this is approaching hurricane intensity. Recon says it's discombobulated.

I'm still not sure we are finished yet. I think a late October or November major hurricane is still possible.

Here's a morning video on Julia for anyone interestedhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtWd1s4fm_g

Lots of flooding being reported in Trinidad.

Another big bust with nearly every model was the awful intensity forecast. Even the ones further south never showed anything like a sub-940 mb hurricane with 155 mph winds. These models made it seem like conditions would be so god awful that the best Ian would do is 125-130 mph.

I think it's horsecrap. The same thing with Hurricane Maria in 2017. The National Hurricane Center's official death toll was much lower than the allegedly high death toll some in the media stated which has still never been substantiated.

Agree. I saw this starting to happen in the Caribbean when the GFS was organizing Ian way too fast, while it seemed to be getting stronger more at the pace of the EURO. Not to mention nearly everytime I follow the GFS on something, the EURO ends up correct.

What about the "Hurricane Severity Index" thing from a few years back? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Severity_Index I actually think Hurricane Ian may have ranked rather high on that one, because it takes into account size and strength. You may be interested in this study from 2008 about "return periods" for hurricanes. Basically, it takes factors into account based on wind and pressure at how often a hurricane of similar wind or pressure should hit an area. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/21/2/2007jcli1772.1.xml#i1520-0442-21-2-403-t03 For example, as you can see, a "Charley" type storm should hit the United States every 13.7 years. We should see another Camille storm by 2032, which would be the next ten hurricane seasons. They note the rarity of the 1935 Labor Day storm. One that seems overdue by all standards and accounts is Hurricane Hugo. I also think Georgia's major landfalls of over 100 years ago make that coastline overdue. Picture a tiny pinhole eye over Padre Island, TX or Key Largo, FL with a sub-900 mb pressure. That'll probably be the next '35 Labor Day-type storm.

I think the only future U.S. Category 5 landfall that isn't a posthumous upgrade would have to be something long-tracked and constant Category 5 (like if Irma had never gone to Cuba and had struck the Keys as a consistent Category 5) or if the pressure wound up so low (something like 912 mb) with corresponding winds to where it would be painfully obvious the storm was landfalling as a Cat 5.

I guess the word on the street among the people I know who don't track hurricanes that they "heard" the NHC wouldn't call Hurricane Ian a Category 5 for "insurance purposes". I actually don't think Ian ever achieved Category 5, despite what many have stated on twitter. Michael was a different story, getting to 919 mb on the North Gulf Coast in mid-October, blowing trains off their tracks, and insane sustained winds. Ian was a high-end Cat 4 no doubt, but the NHC would have upgraded had the information indicated a Cat 5. It didn't.

In recent years, the worst damage definitely seems to come from the storm surge more than the wind. Although location matters, too. I don't know how the building codes would fare in areas of Texas or the Carolinas from a 150 mph storm compared to Florida.

Link?