Floydbuster

Wow did the ensembles really have Irma that far north? I didn't remember that at all.

Anything is possible but everyone seems pretty definitive early on so they may be on to something. Perhaps I should join the bandwagon. I guess I just didn't think the long-range models showed a convincing enough set-up for a system to be quickly swept to sea without at the very least slowing down near the Bahamas.

There are some on Twitter who are laughing at those concerned about this system. I know it's a long way out and of course we don't even have a depression yet, but I wouldn't be laughing. I actually have a bit more concern about this system potentially moving further west than the typical out to sea track. There are some indications the western Atlantic ridging may begin to rebuild around the time it would be near the Bahamas. Still a long time to watch, though.

Time goes so fast that even though it feels like the islands just got slammed by Irma and Maria, that was already six years ago, a similar time frame from between Hugo 1989 and Luis 1995.

I have a suspicion this one could make it very far west, and potentially be a threat to the Virgin Islands.

TD-11 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Jose. That means August gave us 6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 2 major Category 4 hurricanes. Pretty impressive.

Idalia reminded me a lot of Hurricane Dennis in 2005. Very small core, weakening at landfall in the Florida panhandle. In fact, Dennis made landfall with 115 mph winds (lowered from 120 mph operationally) and a pressure of 946 mb. I think Idalia may have been more in the 115-120 mph range at landfall, rather than the operational assessment of 125 mph. The pressure also rose to around 949 mb, similar to Dennis, and the surge was nasty and similar, but Dennis hit a more populated area of the Florida panhandle than Idalia struck.

Weakening hurricanes have winds that just ain't bursting down the surface the way strengthening hurricanes are.

I'm not convinced Idalia will get that much stronger. The eye seems so small that it almost looks ready to peak, IMO.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 84.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES Up to 125 mph. Not quite a Cat 4 yet.

Look at that core!

11:30pm Video Update on Idalia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McX8BTvxbn4

Chasers in Florida tonight be like:

Reminds me a bit of Dennis in 2005. Very tight core. With the hurricane force winds extending out only 25 miles, you miss them and it could be night and day.

New Video Update for those interested https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXfNa-LHOt4

Probably a little less. I'm thinking 8-10am Wednesday.

Visually it reminds me so much of Irene in October 1999. I remember the original forecasts and the models kept showing west and eventually, Irene just dragged more and more east. I think that's why my visual take on Idalia is giving me a memory back to tracks similar to Irene 1999, where the storm sort of drags eastward.

Agree. This time it might really go west, but looking on satellite it is difficult to envision. But of course, I can read the model agreement, and it's there.

I usually start it with Iris in 2001.

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

Watch how fast the media loses interest if Idalia only strikes rural Florida and destroys a Doug's Dinner Bucket and Bait.

As mentioned yesterday, like Isidore 2002, Idalia is likely to have lower-than-normal pressure. Even if Idalia peaks at 120 mph, I'd expect a pressure in the 930s-940mb range.