Floydbuster

The last few runs of the GFS show a hurricane threat to Western Florida mid November.

The GFS continues to show a hurricane near Central America in the next 300 hrs. Likely more 992 mb than 892 mb though...

Thankfully Melissa had tighter-wound bands that I expected, so the massive rain amounts were more limited than I expected.

One or two of the GFS ensembles had a Cat 1 hurricane into SW Florida around November 11th.

Dropped a category, I see. I figured they'd at least hold at a 4 since the satellite appearance had recovered this evening. But a few knots difference is paltry. I read that maybe recon is not finding much to support above 115 mph.

How far can we go until we reach restricted Cuban airspace?

I am amazed at how this thing has never weakened except while crossing Jamaica earlier today. It is an amazing machine of nature.

Reading around, I see that Hurricane Melissa could be the return period storm for the October 1780 "Savanna la Mar hurricane". 3,000 deaths were attributed to the storm just a week or so before the deadliest hurricane in Atlantic History hit the eastern Caribbean. Note the similar track. I wonder if Melissa is the 245 year return period storm for Jamaica.

I am guessing about 180-185 mph is quite possibly the current intensity.